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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #1

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    Post alevin's account talk

    Wow! My very own thread. Currently 80G, 10C, 10S since early December based on my read of 6-month coming fundamentals. Did myself no favors with the 10 and 10 in December. Still I did better last year than the C fund, which doesn't say a whole lot.

    I've lately tried recombining a few chart items mentioned recently here and elsewhere and seeing a pattern over the last year, also past 10 days, month that looks like it can give me some intermediate trend ideas that seem to work for C, but no relationship to trends for Nasdaq/S the past year (I'm seeing Nasdaq as trend surrogate for S, not absolute price match). I'm going to work with this idea the next few weeks with my 10%C and see if the trend continues to be consistent indicator, meanwhile sitting mostly safe in G (I haven't trusted SentimentSurvey much lately). Right now this pattern seems to say C is an okay place to be since late last week, and that I is an okay place to be since late last week also. Once I get tracks with my own account, I'll start showing others what I'm looking at if I continue to think it may be a value-add. Like I said, my skepticism is running high, but I'm willing to risk a little. Waiting for good place to jump out of my S tho.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    I'm seeing Nasdaq as trend surrogate for S, not absolute price match.
    I've been seeing the same for the past month or so ... has anyone else caught on this?
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Well it's been a long 4 days since I first got entered into autotracker. Good thing I was already willing to sit tight or would have made me crazy wanting to make changes I couldn't post. Houston had some technical problems but it's all good now, thanks to EW-Ret and Ocean. There'll probably be a change in the morning but I'll wait to confirm details til I wake up and see what's happening in the world. The change will be based on fundamentals with technicals currently supporting the change. Suffice it to say I misread the chart that I was talking about on Monday, got a couple lines reversed, thought I was looking at one when I was really looking at another, ugh. Fortunately the error hasn't done too much damage so far this week. So much for the chart rookie.

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    85C, 15F. Still trying to learn when to go in and out of F, I have much better record of success with G.

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    I think that should read 85% G, 15% F. Thats the IFTs you made into the autotracker.

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    85C, 15F. Still trying to learn when to go in and out of F, I have much better record of success with G.

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  11. #6

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    Red face Re: alevin's account talk

    G is what I meant. Got in too much of a hurry with my fingers vs. brain. Thanks!

    Quote Originally Posted by EW_ret View Post
    I think that should read 85% G, 15% F. Thats the IFTs you made into the autotracker.

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  13. #7

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    So glad I'm still on the sidelines. The combo of indicators I'm looking at are still telling me not quite time to jump back in yet, time for me to jump back in is when uptrend clearly substantiated. If this strategy works, I'll miss the day-to-day volatility and be in/out fairly quickly for solid longer swings. I don't like the constant adrenaline rush and anxiety required for worrying about daytoday ups and downs. Right now it looks to me like we're still on uncertain ground, but conditions setting up for the up move. Wish I'd stumbled across this strategy/concept all the way back last July, I'd have hung onto the 15% I had at that point and added to it since then. I'm learning tho. Stay tuned. the chart rookie.

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  15. #8

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    Been studying on my chart indicators off and on all week to see how far they could apply based on past history back to 1987 in the case of SP500. I learned the symbol AKG today for the AGG index, and was able to use it in SharpCharts tonight to see what kinds of patterns showed up and when with the combo of indicators I've fallen in love with. The patterns are different from ones for stock indices but still useable. Tonight I've figured out I can import a sharpchart image into a bitmap for annotation editting purposes. I tried but couldn't get annotation to work while in sharpcharts directly, even after reconfiguring browser, clearing cache, allowing popups, etc etc per the sites advice on the problem. Must be something else they/I haven't figured out yet, but I managed to figure out a workaround tonight at least, so I'm getting charts annotated to point out the patterns I'm looking at that are keeping me out of CSI for now still. Because I really am such a beginner at this chart and web posting business, I hesitate to throw this out there too quickly as an all new and wonderful construct for others to latch onto, which is why I've been holding back, aside from the logistical challenges I've been figuring out.

    However, now that I started looking tonight at AGK with my particular indicator filter, I'm liable to bail out of F and all the way into G sooner than I'll be jumping back into CSI, unless something phenomenal makes me change my mind. Don't think so tho.

    My indicators are intermediate-term and trailing-takes a couple days once the real trend starts, to verify new trend and decide to move, but that's okay, I'll come back in low, not at the bottom, but the new trend will be liable to go awhile once I'm back in, based on similar historical time periods in SP500/vxf/efa charts with these indicators.

    The sell signals are slightly different and look like they would get me out early but not too early. I've also noted this week that this model probably works better in a high >15 sustained VIX environment, and that I'll either need to find a different model or figure out how to tweak this one to work more easily when VIX drops below 15 on a sustained basis.

    I may just go ahead and post charts over the weekend and say what the hey, let people decide what they think of them, whether or not I've tested them with a live body through a turn yet or not. Will decide that later into the weekend. thats all for now.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    I would love to see them. Anything that might give a clue as to when to jump back into this market longer than a couple days is what I'm looking for. Thanks.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    I believe that before a low is in place we will need to get 90% upside days such as we have seen in the major bottoms over the past two years. The definition for 90% up days is points gained divided by the sum of points gained and points lost along with volume divided by the sum of up and down volume. Both ratios have to be in excess of 90% to qualify. The last time this happened was in November at that bottom. There were two such days at the August bottom.

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I believe that before a low is in place we will need to get 90% upside days such as we have seen in the major bottoms over the past two years. The definition for 90% up days is points gained divided by the sum of points gained and points lost along with volume divided by the sum of up and down volume. Both ratios have to be in excess of 90% to qualify. The last time this happened was in November at that bottom. There were two such days at the August bottom.
    Thank you Birch. That was an unexpected gift . I tried to find all the numbers for Nov 27th (the day I think you are referring to), but couldn't find separate #s for up vs. down volume, only total for the day, so guess I'll have to wait to try formula until the next opportunity rolls around. Meantime, the approach I'm working is more visual, much less math. Corresponds pretty well with the 90% up concept I think, maybe a day or 2 slower to catch the change. Still have some bugs with the sell signals, so will only post charts I'm feeling real good about at the moment. Akpackfan, Birch and anyone else who cares to comment, feel free, constructive comments preferred.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    So far so good, chosen indicators still telling me to stay where I'm at for at least another day or two (or more). Was tough this morning but Dr. F talked me through the temptation to distrust my indicators for F, which are supported by his (or vice-versa?). I'm working off 5day SMA, he's working off 10day, but I'm looking at another pair of indicators simultaneously, and so far so good. Waiting for good change in trend to reveal itself, just no telling right now how fast that will happen, or which one will show up first.

    I guess folks are looking at the job report for Thursday as trigger for bailing to G ahead of time, I guess I'm too new at this to get the connection. My first thought is that if unemployment is up that would be bad for stocks rather than for F, but wiser heads than mine out there, that's for sure. If things look ouchy for F tomorrow and stocks still no solid change, I'll probably pull the F over to G and then wait to catch the good wave to come. I'll know it when I see it, if my indicators work the way I think they will.

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