Thread: alevin's account talk

Originally Posted by alevin

OK, being of the female persuasion, I have the right to change my mind anytime I want to. this morning I changed my mind about tiptoeing back into the I fund just yet, based on new information. I saw something last night that caught my interest but was too tired to pursue it til now. Of course that "something" led to something else, and it was the something else that REALLY caught my attention. that being the following...



http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/co...9796&obspage=2

I took a look at SP500, on monthly chart it's in low 20's, EFA is in upper 20's and moving up, Nasdaq has just moved up from just below 30 to just above 30 on monthly chart. Considered with the weekly indicators I'm using, think I'll wait just a little bit longer before I move back into anything, but this use of RSI is now added to my mix for moving back in. Good trading everyone.

Thanks for sharing alevin,

I've been wallering the thought of a possible push into the stocks for Friday, IFT by noon Thursday, in my mind for a couple of weeks now. This additional info sure adds more ammo to my decision. Of course us men are allowed to change our minds also.

CB

The RSI on the monthly Dow was at 19 last month. It was below 24 only 10 times over the last 90 years. The average return one year later was 55%. Almost all of them were at the bottoms. Due to the extreme volatility and investor concerns, some traditional indicators have become very bullish. Cash in money market funds could buy 27% of the S&P 500 - the highest in 24 years. The last peak in 2003 was roughly 22% - and resulted in a vigorous rally.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The RSI on the monthly Dow was at 19 last month. It was below 24 only 10 times over the last 90 years. The average return one year later was 55%. Almost all of them were at the bottoms. Due to the extreme volatility and investor concerns, some traditional indicators have become very bullish. Cash in money market funds could buy 27% of the S&P 500 - the highest in 24 years. The last peak in 2003 was roughly 22% - and resulted in a vigorous rally.

Small Caps vs. Large Caps which is better for the next few weeks the C Fund or the S Fund

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The RSI on the monthly Dow was at 19 last month. It was below 24 only 10 times over the last 90 years. The average return one year later was 55%. Almost all of them were at the bottoms. Due to the extreme volatility and investor concerns, some traditional indicators have become very bullish. Cash in money market funds could buy 27% of the S&P 500 - the highest in 24 years. The last peak in 2003 was roughly 22% - and resulted in a vigorous rally.

Thanks Birch. I'm cautious but not silly. The weekly indicators I'm using are creeping closer and closer to buy signals too, It's a judgement call when to start pulling the trigger(s) but I'm close. Very close. tipping point for decision will reside somewhere in the mix of weekly indics combo'd with monthly RSI, 2-day RSI signal I also started looking at this week. Not trying to catch the exact bottom, just close. I'll jump in when you least expect it.

Braveheart,

Many talking heads are supporting the small caps to lead off any permanent bottom. This has been the historic pattern. I'm staying with the C fund and holding my position in the I fund all the way back up. I would like to catch one more $10 price in the C fund this Friday - but I'm afraid it has passed me by.

Oh by the way, thought I'd mention for real account (not tracker) purposes, I decided to start donating a whole whopping 5% of my biweeklies back into CSI starting tomorrow, but since I'm only doing 5% contribs to
TSP (saving the rest for future single stock purchases, new roof and new attic insulation (see notes re Christmas roof adventures on JBs thread), it's not a whole heck've a lot of dough to risk in C (2%) S (1%) I (2%). Hoping tomorrow will be another down day so they'll come cheap (er). After a few pps of such, I should be able to testdrive SBs <1% technique if I want to-all depends on market gyrations of course.

Originally Posted by alevin

After a few pps of such, I should be able to testdrive SBs <1% technique if I want to-all depends on market gyrations of course.

Best of Luck Alevin. Your opinion during your trials will help quite a few of us.

For me, its no longer a question of method. I truly believe I can beat the
(G) returns with acceptable losses if I do bad. Its now a question of timing
my decisions based on a variety of factors.

ie.... 3 down days in a row,,,, you still have 3.05% in (C) ,,,,do you let
it ride? Do you lower it to 3.0%?,,,, Do you pump it up to 4%?

Does holding to a specific rule pay off better in the long run? These are
the questions I'd love some imput on. Maybe there's no true pattern or
rule that would work and its simply a roll of the dice. Anything you share
would be appreciated.

Attachment 5317 Attachment 5318

Awhile back I brought forward Kevin DePew's article about TD Sequential 9 and 13 count weekly indicator system for detecting the bottom (after the fact of course). With regard to the weekly chart, the SPX 13-count buyin signal was reached a couple weeks ago, a little later than the 13-count buyin signal for the EFA. Based on my checking back into past recession histories with this indicator going back into the early 70's, sometimes the 15week SMA is a better indicator that puts us back into a substantial lasting upswing, sometimes the ADX cross-up of DM+ above DM- on the weekly chart is a better confirming indicator.

Because of that, I've been waiting for either the 15week MA or the weekly ADX to confirm the 13-count buyin signal on either the SPX or the EFA, neither one has gotten there yet. On the SPX weekly chart the ADX is still in a powerful downtrend mode, being over 40 as it has been since September.

Last week I talked about the monthly RSI indicator being under 30 only 7 times since the 30s, and that the real clue there is when the RSI starts to move back up, which is happening in the EFA/IEE but not yet on SPX which just took a nosedive into the 20 this past month. that's chart 2. I thought I'd wait til the RSIs climbed back over 30 but I'm getting itchy fingers. I'm not yet willing tho to risk more than 5% of my 5% biweekly (matched) contributions quite yet.

I need to see the IEE/EFA make it over the 15week MA (which looks more likely at the moment than the ADX weekly moving to positive trend territory anytime soon, and want to see one or the other confirm the SPX 13-count (weekly) buyin and see the RSI monthly <30 but uptrending before I pile back bigtime out of G where I've been hiding for ages.

As far as S goes, the 9-count situp and pay attention signal has been given in EMW/VXF, but we are a long ways from meeting the 13 count subsequent buyin signal there, only about 3-4 clicks into that count, even tho the Nasdaq monthly RSI just climbed back over 30. thats all the chart commentary for tonight. See you all in the am.

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm




I began studying the Kondratieff historical-social cycle theory a few years ago, from a book I read called the Fourth Turning, had no idea til recently that market-oriented people applied it, or that there were smaller cycles within cycles. That whole concept of secular bear vs. cyclical bear, etc. Malyla is tuned into this topic too, with her mention of Generational Dynamics website. I mentioned awhile back that reading that book helped prepare me for the market downturn this past year and the coming SS crunch time about the time I (in theory) could retire.

And Birchtree knows something about this cycle business too, with his talk of 6-year cycles. I've been reading other trader websites this past year, they keep talking about Fibonacci numbers and precise predictable retracements of market movements, somehow that's related to this cycle stuff too. It is social science stuff, not voodoo precisely, but not being in the social sciences myself, it's more voodoo than not for me, bootstrapping all the way. Having a hard enough time with chart learning and fundamental analysis (and a little forex and options learning on the side).

My take is learn and integrate big picture theory as well as details, can't depend on any one construct to be our magic wand to wealth. Some people will have naturally have more affinity for one type of analysis than another. We are all have our own preferred information-processing style.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5820.html

During my 10 year acquaintance with Mr. Kress, I've been privileged to learn of his discovery of a remarkable series of weekly and yearly cycles. These cycles (Kress Cycles as I've taken to calling them) have an amazing correlation to each other and are based on the Fibonacci sequence. More importantly, they have accurately identified the major turning points in the financial markets and the economy over the last several years. The Kress Cycles are predicting a major period of change ahead for the U.S. stock market and economy, particularly between the years 2010-2014.
Using his cycle system, Mr. Kress correctly identified the 1999/2000 stock market top and also the 2002/2003 end to the bear market. More recently, Kress identified the stock market top in 2007 and is looking for the start of a new cyclical bull market to begin soon.

Q: Earlier this month you published a special edition to your SineScope publication entitled, “The Grand Bull's Terminal Years: 2009-2011.” It contained an ominous warning for the years 2012-2014. Please elaborate.

A: The term “Grand” was included since it refers to the composite of all the cycles. Its duration is 120 years and I refer to it as the revolutionary cycle. A revolution occurs with each cycle bottom which changes the three basic institutions that govern our lives: political, economic and social. The first revolution in this country was political since it involved war in the 1770s when America was freed from an occupied to an independent territory. The second occurred in the mid 1890s when America transcended from an agricultural-based to a manufacturing-based economy. This was an economic revolution. The third 120-year revolutionary cycle is scheduled to bottom in 2014. To complete the third institution, the upcoming Grand cycle bottom should be a social revolution. The final three years prior to the bottom are ominous, historically, for they include a depression and a devastating war. Since “history always repeats itself” and there is yet to be a precedent to violate this, the years 2012, '13 and '14 have grave, broad-based implications.

http://http://www.kitco.com/ind/Droke/jul012004.html

a common misunderstanding that many investors have about long-waves or long-term cycles. It is assumed that because a particular cycle has peaked that prices must begin declining until that cycle bottoms. "It ain’t necessarily so" would be the reply to this. The financial markets, and indeed, the larger economy, are complex entities influenced by numerous cycles that may be peaking or troughing simultaneously. This explains why a longer-term cycle can peak (e.g., the 30-year cycle peaking in 1999/2000) and yet stock prices can stay afloat and even make higher highs. This is because other dominant cycles are bottoming and turning up along the way and that provides enough support and momentum to keep prices afloat.

Now there comes a point along the cyclical curve, we’ll call it the "hard down" phase, in which all the cycles which compose the dominant long-term rhythm are coming down together. That’s when you can expect to see crashing stock market prices and a deteriorating economy. But until the "hard down" phase begins (defined as the final 10% of a cycle’s duration), you can still be in the declining phase of a long-term cycle and still have a bull market underway depending on which of the shorter-term and intermediate-term cycles are still rising.

Thanks for sharing your research into the cyclic data. As I mentioned on my thread, I'd never heard of Kress cycles before today. And now both you and Hessian have pointed me to Kondratieff, with similar data. Now that I know the cycles are based on Fibonacci, I'd better dig into them more. I agree with you that it isn't economic voodoo. I'm a firm believer that the # doesn't just keep cropping up by accident.

And thanks for the update on the sequential 9-13 count, too. I am constantly amazed at what we learn from each other on this MB. And you, like Squale, are one of the tenured professors of the site!

One small question to pick your brain again if I may. I've been doing a bit of research on RSI(2) and RSI(3), which appear to give good direction but have some whipsaws. I know Stockcharts.com uses RSI(14) as its default, but that appears to be a bit slow in combination with my other preferred indicators. It appears that you are using RSI(10). Any special reason you picked that one?

Thanks again, and good luck with the house challenges!

Lady

alevin,

I couldn't remember the who was talking about having a brother?, who was a Vet and may be looking at a Federal Job until Show-me reminded me it was you. I thought it was one of the ladies here, but for the life of me, I can't find the thread. Anyhoo below is a link that may be helpful in obtaining a Gov't job as a Vet.

http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1810/

Have a safe and Happy New Year,

CB