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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #781

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    No change with the indicators I'm watching. Still. I could bail and wait for the final drop, with my horrible sense of timing, the big indicator drop would happen the day I bail. then I'd only have 1 IFT left for the month. erm. thinking I'll keep holding. for now. It might go the other way.

    In the meantime, more decisions afoot. Property directly behind me has gone into foreclosure by the bank. Not on the auction block-yet. House have been substantially damaged inside, the aspiring owners that have been officially kicked out, still have belongings present outside the house, cars, lawnmower, cat, still doing things around the place including stripping any strippable outside metal for scrap-interesting situation. not sure about belongings still on the inside. there was huge amount of extended family living in the place previously, shared ownership amongst some of them. anglo, no other ethnic group. the younger parties were the ones who failed to hold up their end of the bargain with dad/grandpa. long story short, the place wraps around one back corner of my property, essentially 3 lots that were combined sometime in the past. I've longed to buy the lot directly behind me for some time, but would need to be re-divided and resurveyed before that could happen. I'm hearing secondhand that the bank had previously been urging the aspiring owners to re-divide the place into the original 3 lots. so the bank might be willing to deal on the subject.

    FEMA has their house mapped as half within a required-flood insurance floodplain (mortgage implications). I know, bizarre. Same level as my house-which is outside mortgage-mandatory flood insurance zone, far from it in fact. Subtle elevational differences, floodmapping error on FEMA's part, but insurance/mortgage company don't know that. I was never required to pay flood insurance before I paid off my mortgage, and wouldn't be required now if there was still a mortgage. The other 2 lots are basically undeveloped other than power to the lot lines. The other house's sideporch off the master bedroom was added on after the 2d lot was acquired. The porch extends onto the second lot-into the "flood zone".

    So, I'd feel very uncomfortable paying what the aspiring owners had for a mortgage-$180K, especially given the damage done inside the house due to having 16 people living in it for a short while-they tore out some walls to make more room inside, for one thing, so I'm told-don't know if they were support walls or not. Even given the potential to separate off the back lot that I really want, fix up the house, including new roof that's been needed awhile, and turn into a rental landlord or some darn thing, and develop my minifarm with the back lot like I've wanted to do.

    They haven't put the place up on the auction block yet, but I know which bank holds the mortgage. I know one person on here got an incredibly good cash deal buying a foreclosed house from a bank. I just don't know if they'd laugh in my face if I offered $15K for that place or not. the max I'd go is $80, considering I paid 90 for my place originally and my house was in way better condition then than the other one currently is. And they are/were identical floor plans originally, built the same year. 60 years ago. and property taxes keep going up. worth it to try to become a landlord with a fixer-upper? worth it to fixer-upper, split off the back lot for me and sell the other house with those 2 lots unsplit? many questions running through my mind. TBD (to be determined).
    Last edited by alevin; 04-05-2015 at 11:47 AM.

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  3. #782

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Sounds like a great opportunity if you can get it for the right price. I doubt the bank takes 15K on a 180K mortgage, but I bet you could snag that 1/3 of the land that you want for that price. That increases your property value, gets their property further from your house, and gives you the space you want for your farm .

    Good luck!

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  5. #783

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Sounds like a great opportunity if you can get it for the right price. I doubt the bank takes 15K on a 180K mortgage, but I bet you could snag that 1/3 of the land that you want for that price. That increases your property value, gets their property further from your house, and gives you the space you want for your farm .

    Good luck!
    I'll likely need the luck. Even to swing $15K at the drop of a hat, would need to quickly give up plans for putting a few thou into 2014 Roth account, and would also need to close one small taxable brokerage account and pull those funds back in, and sacrifice half my current car replacement fund, without dipping into TSP for a max loan on the rest of the property.

    If I offered more than $65K for all of it, I'd still have to see if my dad could loan what I couldn't quite swing on my own. His funds are not all that liquid, tied up mostly in CDs, last I knew. And then I'd definitely have to stall another couple years before retiring, pay myself back the tsp before retiring so wouldn't take big tax hit on the withdrawal besides, and pay him back on the side and defer the next vehicle another year (was planning on replacement next winter-still would need a loan for half that amount too).

    and hope .gov could afford to keep me another 3-4 years-I'll be at max step come October 1). My department is currently in middle of devising options for what the workforce would look like/need to be within the next 3-5 years, given budgets and retirements forthcoming. basically talking strategic downsizing/resizing within that timeframe, we can't even afford the mix of people we have now, realistically speaking. I'd get hurt kinda bad taxwise if I had to retire before paying off a max tsp loan.


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  7. #784

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Index indicator charts I'm using suggest prudence is better part of hope right now. Started watching the SP600 chart as closer indicator for S fund than the sp500 which isn't moving much at all. The smallcap indicator chart however, dropped to the mean awhile ago on the fast trend chart (5 x 10 day Moving averages), now the slow trend chart (10 x 20 day moving average) appears to be topping out. 100% G as of COB.

    Note: tried to upload chart to demonstrate the discussion. for some reason, it's not uploading. tried twice. go figure. If anyone wants to see for themselves, they can go to indexindicators.com, simple moving average indicators for sp600, 10day ma x 20day smoothing, 1 yr.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  9. #785

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Feeling pretty good today, stepped out of the market just in time, thanks to the indexindicator chart signals I've begun working with this year. I tried to upload this yesterday, but wasn't able to for some reason. basically, the drop to the mean already happened quite a few days ago on the shortterm charts 5 x 10 MA smoothed (which I didn't see immediately because I was watching the sp500 and the NDX100, and wasn't watching the smcap charts.

    The pop showed up in the 10 x 20 MA smoothed chart of the smallcaps a couple days ago, and I had made decision some time back that I would let the pop run a few days before prudentbear would overrule my craving for honey. I noted a few weeks ago that the NYSE had moved, even tho none of the charts I normally watched had moved, (I realized yesterday that it probably moved because the NYSE contains a lot of small and midcaps, not just large caps). At the time I said I realized I was going to have to watch more than just the sp500 and the ndx100, which is why I started watching all the US indices to see which one moved first.

    the 10 x 20 ma signal has a substantial lag relative to the 5 x 10 ma signal, but that means its that much stronger when it shows up, even if the 5 x 10 ma signal hasn't budged one way or the other since the earlier move. the 5 x 10 ma signal for all the US indices is currently sitting where they have been for quite some time, neither a seller nor a buyer be. I'm happy I listened to the small cap 10 x 20 MA signal when I did. Now to catch the next buy signal, wherever it shows up indexwise, whenever it shows up.



    sp600 1y 10-20ma 4-15-15.png
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  11. #786

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Thanks. Interesting chart. I'm only 15% invested currently (5% S, I and F). Am waiting for a bit more of a dip before jumping back in. However, my market timing and my timing are not exactly in sync Appreciate your contributions.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  13. #787

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Well, my indexindicator charts have been sitting on the median line for a long time since they last popped up to the 1x SD and came back to the centerline again. until this week when some of the US indices popped up to the 1X SD again, some indices still there, smallcaps already dropped back to the mean. SPX still sitting on the mean, hasn't popped to the 1X yet.

    been trying to figure out how to handle single-country ETF opportunities, some have been down at the -1X SD recently, reasonable buy signal for the outside accounts. Europe single-country indices are a mixed bag at this point, I choose not to play the EFA due to the mix until I figure out how to interpret the single-country chart signals back into the EFA. This sitting out while the charts are sitting on the mean after a pop and drop back to the mean, is tough, since chart could go either way from the mean. Thinking I need to keep about 30% in during the mean days after a drop from the +1X SD, until I get a better handle on where market intends to go next from there. evolving system, learning as I go. I'll wait for the next drop to -1X before I change my all or nothing sell/buy signal approach currently in use with this system. It's hard being patient, but a little easier to sit still when I know I'm going to be out of town and away from the computer for awhile.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  15. #788

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    On the subject of acquisition of mini-farm property for retirement activity, the bankrupt neighbors are still living on the property, appears the bank has not given them 90-day vacate notice yet. reconsidered whether that is the best place for my real estate expansion idea, since I may not want to stay in this state post-retirement. Continuing to look around, spotted a handful of nice developer auction parcels this weekend that I would likely have jumped at one or another of them if I'd had the funds in hand. Sadly the auction closing dates didn't give me enough time to get funds in hand, since the bulk of cash on the barrelhead would require me to have tsp loan in hand right now, and I'd still have to scrape up the remainder very quickly from other sources, just couldn't react fast enough to those opportunities. But now I'm considering pulling the necessary funds from tsp as a loan to have them onhand the instant I see something in the right place, right features, right price in what I'm considering retirement-eligible states at this point.

    Immediate family-member situations are deteriorating as I speak. Family member in dire-straits, situation just got even worse. No job. private company employer just got killed on the job due to accident-(see job hazard analysis that probably wasn't ever done or routinely followed). The employers family has shut down business operations while they figure out who is going to run the company in future, employees not officially laid off, so they can't draw unemployment. Instead the employees have to show up at work every day, in case the company wants to start operations again that day. No better-paying jobs available in the commuting area. Employees currently subsisting on limited savings or family support that is draining other family members savings-just to keep roof overhead and food on the table. Economic insanities continue, I'm sure circumstances similar to this story are not unique to my family in this day and age.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  17. #789

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Really sorry to hear of your difficult times alevin. Our son lost his job about 18 months ago. He lost everything and had to rejoin us in our retirement. It required him to relocate, find a job, and make a new life and for us to shell out some serious bucks to assist. He would have been SOL without our help but you do what you can for your kids and family. The world we live in today is not the same one many TSPer's (especially the retirees) grew up in. He is now re-launched with a new apartment, full time job, new girlfriend, etc. It was tough on the whole family. But hang in there, think positive, and do what's best for you. All the best.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #790

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    thank you for the kind words, FS. The 85yo parents are the ones supporting the one out of work at this point, spending more than their own retirement income at this point from their own lifetime savings. Those same parents are at a point where they need to downsize to more elder-friendly physical environment but can't afford to, literally, while the crisis continues with their only son. A man of honor and integrity and a hard worker his whole life, responsible family man and 23-year career retired Navy who can no longer meet his own financial needs due to brutal divorce a couple years back, not something he ever deserved. working fulltime second career and still can't keep a roof over his head without family help. 3000 miles from me, 2000 miles from the parents. He's tied down to the area where he currently lives for many reasons, no money to relocate for one. I could scrape the funds for him to relocate back to where the parents are located, but the parents need to downsize very soon and would have to sell their current living space to afford to downsize, so the sibling wouldn't be able to co-locate with them. I would help the parents with the actual preptime for downsizing but they say not yet, due to their own on-edge current finances. My poor mother fell and hurt herself very painfully twice while I was on the phone with her yesterday. My father says I don't need to come yet, he's handling it all, her and his son until further notice. 1000 miles away. criminy, I feel like both they and I are in the sandwich generation, even tho I don't have kids myself.

    One reason why I keep looking around for some land that I could do more with, and provide some portion of living needs from in terms of shelter and growing food if nothing else, for me plus or more family members.

    Some may wonder at the thought process. Call it family oral history. both parents born in 32, children of GD1. The place my dad's parents lived all the years I knew them, was inherited from her father, along with small family business. My great grandmother, both grandparents, and great aunt all lived together all the years I was growing up, and died one by one, never went to nursing home, any of them. house is still in the family, long ways from here. Both sets of grandparents had big gardens and fruit trees all the years I knew them-lifestyle from an earlier time. Home canning on the pantry shelf. A way of life. Great great grandfather on mom's side, had a stroke, lived with his son and son's family until he died after he couldn't care for himself post-stroke. died there. family takes care of family, does what is needed to help the family hold together and survive. lessons I learned from elder generations examples.

    thanks for sharing your story, FS. It gives me hope.
    Last edited by alevin; 05-27-2015 at 11:01 PM.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  21. #791

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Nice to hear there are still families that take care of each other! Best of luck to all of you who are facing hard financial times!

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  23. #792

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Been waiting quite awhile for this. Signal showed up on a couple indices yesterday, all indices as of today. toe in the water, worth some risk, not full on. knives can cut. 15C, 15S, 70G

    sp500-2y-5-10ma 7-10-15.png
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard


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