Thread: alevin's account talk

Thanks, Alevin. I'm out here in Oregon - we are having great fall weather today. I saw an interview of TD by Bloomberg and he pointed to 1076 as being a very key level. From there, sounds like he expects some further short-term downside but then a big rally, around 20% from the bottom, wherever we end up landing below 1076.

Thanks
HT

Originally Posted by Happy Trails

Thanks, Alevin. I'm out here in Oregon - we are having great fall weather today. I saw an interview of TD by Bloomberg and he pointed to 1076 as being a very key level. From there, sounds like he expects some further short-term downside but then a big rally, around 20% from the bottom, wherever we end up landing below 1076.

Thanks
HT

HT, the 1076 level fits pretty close with the chart I posted on 9-9 here in my thread. support line on the chart. The exact number he cited goes back to 2/12/10 on weekly charts. the start of another one of the weekly 9-ups. There's a rule that you go with whichever of the last 9-ups had bigger range to serve as support line.

Also a little matter of subtracting/adding true range on top/bottom of the last bar in the range under certain conditons (book study time). I'm not clear how he picked that week-if that's what he's doing, haven't done the calculations to compare with more recent 9-up I was looking at as support, probably won't for now, will take his word for it. might go back later.

Hi sis. Finally settling back in so I wanted to drop by. I'm moving my IRA into dividend paying funds as quickly as it makes sense to do so. Right now my account is paying an average of 2.4% overall.

<3

Alevin,
Any idea where we are at in the count?
Thanks
HT

Originally Posted by Happy Trails

Alevin,
Any idea where we are at in the count?
Thanks
HT

HT, this bouncing around is making me crazy. Right now we're on a new 5 of 9 up on the weekly. If you use bottom of the weekly springtail at 1074 (week of 10/3) and add 20% (per TDs previous prediction), that would have put us at 1288, we hit 1285 on weekly close 2 weeks ago and come down since then. Using the bottom of the springtail as support for current up-count is one of those nuances in his system. The weekly price flip upcount actually started the week of 10/10.

The last big support line for a true fullblown trending up-count is down at 1040, resistance for the top of that count is at 1343. There was a 9-13-9 count in that last big sequence. I'm not sure on the rule set for adding count to that second 9er (would need to do some serious bookstudy), but if I start counting another 13 upcount from the end of 2d 9, we hit second 13 count the week of 10/17 on weekly close @1243. Current Resistance now at 1285, but we haven't had a new price flip yet for starting a new count-down, so I don't know which way this puppy is going to jump next. No wonder Sentiment Survey says HOLD'EM Texas style.

A lot of mixed signals out there right now. Was hoping that the count might help to clarify. Thanks for the update.

The signals are starting to unmix. Got the price flip on the daily, possible we'll see the price flip on the weekly by COb Friday. I added a couple inverse ETFs to my homebrew this morning, had a heads up from a paid service tho. Never bought a 3x anything before. Those are NOT for holding for any duration, but looking good so far. Will help offset all the losses to date in my homebrew account this year (longs only), feeling better already but a long ways to go to get back to even for the year-one reason haven't been playing much with the tsp account this year. got to feeling I didn't understand anything, so stayed on the sidelines with the big money. opportunity coming up soon to end up underwater on the tsp account as well as the homebrew account if not careful about picking my tsp entry point.

Well. Yesterday I finally discovered why DeMark system has frustrated me so much this past year. God bless Kevin DePew at Minyanville. He finally put out an explanation that works for me on the monthly counts and matches numeric bar values I see in the monthly charts. I think I finally get where some of his numbers are coming from on weekly and daily counts, after thinking about what othr parts of his system I sort of understand but that I haven't been applying. Requires some extra math I haven't been doing because requires extra book study/practice I haven't done yet.

Once I wrap my brain around all the numbers he put in the article, and understand how he came up with some of them and where they came from in the "system", maybe I'll get better enough at using the "system" that it will work for me better going into next year.

long and short, the monthly 9-13-9 count sell signal I thought was long done, is not quite perfected yet and its currently a race between a sell signal (almost) perfectly finished count and an ongoing countdown to a buy signal that is halfway done. But thanks to Kevin DePew's article yesterday, I now know what to watch for in coming days on chart levels on monthly charts. I need to do some book study to figure out how he came up with some of his shorter term numbers, not obvious just by looking at open-close-true highs true lows on chart candles.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2011/id/38164

Originally Posted by alevin

Well. Yesterday I finally discovered why DeMark system has frustrated me so much this past year. God bless Kevin DePew at Minyanville. He finally put out an explanation that works for me on the monthly counts and matches numeric bar values I see in the monthly charts. I think I finally get where some of his numbers are coming from on weekly and daily counts, after thinking about what othr parts of his system I sort of understand but that I haven't been applying. Requires some extra math I haven't been doing because requires extra book study/practice I haven't done yet.

Once I wrap my brain around all the numbers he put in the article, and understand how he came up with some of them and where they came from in the "system", maybe I'll get better enough at using the "system" that it will work for me better going into next year.

long and short, the monthly 9-13-9 count sell signal I thought was long done, is not quite perfected yet and its currently a race between a sell signal (almost) perfectly finished count and an ongoing countdown to a buy signal that is halfway done. But thanks to Kevin DePew's article yesterday, I now know what to watch for in coming days on chart levels on monthly charts. I need to do some book study to figure out how he came up with some of his shorter term numbers, not obvious just by looking at open-close-true highs true lows on chart candles.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2011/id/38164

The week isn't over-yet. but today we broke the weekly support level at 1219 (and change) referenced in the above article on DeMark system status on the spx. Will we stay below that support the rest of the week? stay tuned. by my counts on the Monthly, we are on month 7 of a a 9-month downcount. If we make it to week 9 before flipping direction again in a big way, well..I'm not going to make any predictions past that point until we see week 9 actually happen.

Keep up the good work. I get Kevin Depew's tweets txt'd to me and he's been sending out a lot lately about where we are and what levels he's looking for. I'm not nearly as far along as you in understanding this system so I'll keep reading what you post here. Thanks!

Originally Posted by MrBowl

Keep up the good work. I get Kevin Depew's tweets txt'd to me and he's been sending out a lot lately about where we are and what levels he's looking for. I'm not nearly as far along as you in understanding this system so I'll keep reading what you post here. Thanks!

Got so busy working on learning how to manage outside small accounts better, haven't given the bigger account the attention it deserves, for some time, other than bumping up and maxing out contributions for second year. About to get harder to keep contributions at that level tho. Office is relocating, the new commute will increase my monthly gas budget by 3x. wah wah, fortunately 3x is still findable in the budget if I get rid of basic cable and a couple other similar optional expeditures in the budget. still hurts tho.
ah well, change happens.

So anyways, back to DeMark indicators. Looks like we're getting that major price flip down on weekly basis this week in SPX, we shall see how it looks Friday afternoon at the close before I call the flip for real. If the flip doesn't hold by Friday close, then we're back to dealing with sideways/up 13 count towards a weekly sell signal and I may finally wade in for a bit. there's some sneaker waves along this shore, so won't be turning my back if I do take a walk in the wet sand.