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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #601

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Another $USD chart. I've been using FreeStockCharts for awhile but only now signed up so could copy one of those charts to post. Monthly chart, note the pairs of vertical lines for each indicator-closest comparisons I can find between current chart indicators and historic.

    Attachment 11097

    I had no clue about market behavior patterns vs. currency back in the 90s. $ started climbing, and market went with it back then. can it happen again? I have a hard time believing. seems like this time is different-but is it?
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  3. #602

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    So...gravestone doji on the SPX today. According to the rules, gravestone doji needs a gap up tomorrow or at least a close above today's close by EOD to confirm shortterm trend change. Birch will just say its all been a pause in the longterm secular bull of course.

    I'm not willing to bet my hat on it going up a whole lot, but I'll hang in til Friday, maybe recoup some of what I've lost in the downturn lately. wonder what SS will say on Friday am? these sticky pants, hmm. might need a fresh pair soon.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  5. #603

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Both Newt and Pawlenty are espousing reducing the capital gains and dividend tax from 15% to 0%. Can you imagine what the bull would do? We'll see if more come out with similar programs. I would certainly enjoy keeping all my gains and income.


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  7. #604

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Both Newt and Pawlenty are espousing reducing the capital gains and dividend tax from 15% to 0%. Can you imagine what the bull would do? We'll see if more come out with similar programs. I would certainly enjoy keeping all my gains and income.
    So true, but they are 2 of many potentials, and that is assuming that anyone can beat BHO (you know he has >50% on the government dole and therefore voting for him)...
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  9. #605

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    The information is now in the public domain and is part of the new hope and change we can count on. The market will eventually take notice.

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  11. #606

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    The market is still noticing we haven't resolved the debt ceiling yet, Birch-see JTH's account talk this morning.

    As for me, I am still learning how to spot short-term swings, rather than the intermediate ones I've tried to key on for quite awhile. Here's what I'm working on, now that I discovered FreeStockCharts. I think Jason pointed the way there. before that I'd been using only StockCharts and bigcharts, which don't have timeframes shorter than Day. I didn't act on the signal in the chart below, because I'm still learning to spot the shortterm signal these indicators give when considered together. But I'll act on the next similar signal when I see it. meanwhile, I'll be away from charts and keyboard for next week and half after today so prefer being out than in while unable to react to anything unforeseen major during that time. still have toe in with outside funds tho, just not in tsp at the moment. anyway, hourly chart for viewing pleasure-intended use-shortterm trades only.
    Last edited by tsptalk; 09-25-2011 at 08:40 PM. Reason: Link deleted by request
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  13. #607

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Back sometime during the last big downturn (aka cyclical bear market), I learned one of the best indicators for bear market is when 13 week EMA crosses 34 week EMA by 1% or more. Been watching all week. Cross was there as of Monday, difference has increased from .1% to .4% til tonight it stands at 0.787%.

    I went in on a 1x short before work today, noted over on ETFtalk-first one I've attempted since the last cyclical bear. I've learned a lot since then, but certainly nowhere in JTH league. Still, thinking I might do a little better with the inverse ETF tactics this time around-I don't do leverage, don't have enough playdough for that. We're almost there, hang on tight, I might have been a little early but not by much.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  15. #608

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    We're almost there
    Where is "there"???
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  17. #609

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    Where is "there"???
    i think he meant we almost coming to THE crash

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  19. #610

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by law87 View Post
    i think he meant we almost coming to THE crash
    If this wasn't "the" crash, I am more screwed than I thought...
    Rules:
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    "Government exists to protect all people’s rights, not some people’s feelings." - A. Barton Hinkle

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  21. #611

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    If this wasn't "the" crash, I am more screwed than I thought...
    We're going to take another beating today too.

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  23. #612

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    If this wasn't "the" crash, I am more screwed than I thought...
    We will be in new cyclical bear market (per the rule of thumb I cited last night), once the 13 week EMA is below 34 week EMA by 1% or more. Last night, the difference was .0787. We aren't in bear market-yet, according to this rule, but if the difference between the 2 EMAs gets to 1%, this rule will be confirming Sentiment Signal, which Tom said yesterday indicates we're in new bear market. The EMA rule hasn't confirmed yet, but we're very close.

    I bought an inverse ETF yesterday in outside account (very small potatoes compared to TSP acct), because we're so close to entering new cyclical bear using the EMA rule and I could tell early how the day was going. If we were near the "bottom", I'd never have done that, even using 1x ETF.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard


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