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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #25

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    update on the 20/50 week DMA rule of thumb. It's coming from Karl Denninger at Market Ticker. He's posted that particular article as one of his classics, so it doesn't get lost on his site, but has referred to it more than once in more recent articles. BTW, the soundest intermediate-longterm moves are when 20 week DMA crosses 50 week DMA w/difference 1% or greater, either direction, per his historic analyes. I played w/short-term move this past month w/part of funds, decided charts are saying good time to bail to G today (3d move for March), in interest of CP, I didn't do great this month, but recaptured some of what I lost in early Feb at least. Will decide how to play April as charts evolve. May just stay out in G all month, will see. BTW, Karl is also the guy who identified the sustainable housing value being 3x community median income level I referred to earlier. Different article than the 20/50 RofT. Hope April goes better than expected for those doing snailmail, be careful out there everyone.

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  3. #26

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    update on the 20/50 week DMA rule of thumb. .
    DMA = Displaced Moving Average?

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  5. #27

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Ooops. Meant SMA. I live in a world of acronyms. DMA is one of my other NON-financial ones. .. Well at least I know somebody reads my posts. Haven't always been sure of that.


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  7. #28

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Goodness, didn't realize it'd been so long since I said anything on my own thread. I've been on the lily pad awhile, was travelling WAY too much in May to feel good being in the market, been waiting for a chance to jump back in at a point where I can keep a close eye on things. Haven't been too worried about being, doing a lot better in my real account vs. my play account (+3.3% this year vs. -1 and change). Today the indicators are telling me its time to wade back in (real and play). Going I partway, hope I'm not too far offbase, would hate to lose any of my hard-fought gains back from personal Nov-Feb. errors. If this test proves out, will wade back in further w/2d move this month.

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  9. #29

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    I misapplied my ADX combo strategy the other day-got part of the details right, part of them not so right, first time quantitative application, I got so excited that my ADX quant. indicator hit the trend up number I'd been waiting for, that I forgot one little qualitative detail-ie the PRICE trend was down! I need to wait for both of them to be going up before jumping off the lily pad, darn it.

    Part of my overall philosophy is CP, especially after reading Wednesdays Slope of Hope-recounted below. Glad I only put 20% into my real I account, as opposed to more in my play account. Kept some dry powder in both accounts as part of my learning process. Good thing, because this load of powder got really wet and seriously misfired! Practice-I WILL get better at this strategy biz.

    I don't want to pull back to G yet is my problem, but it's taking nerves of steel to stay in at the moment and wait (hope?) for that short-term rally to at least get back to where I was at start of the week. I do have a stop on how much pain I'm willing to tolerate before I go back into CP mode tho. Hmm.

    http://www.slopeofhope.com/
    <H1>June 11, 2008 - 05:34 PM

    Eight Years to Go




    ...from Elliott Wave International. ...Some of the highlights from their latest report postulate that:
    • We've got about 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities) ahead of us, with an "idea" bottom for commodities in 2013, for stocks (in nominal terms) 2014, and for stocks (in real dollar terms) in 2016.
    • In those eight years, they project an economic slump more substantial than the Great Depression (I imagine people would take great issue with this point in particular).
    • The crude oil market is in the midst of its final swing up, with a projected ultimate high between $160 and $189 per barrel.
    In the broadest terms, the notion of a bear market until about 2014 has been the theme I've been working with. The dream, of course, would be to ... be ready to convert into a (gasp) mega-bull in 2015 or so.
    </H1>

    I'm not sure what they mean by an "idea bottom" in commodities. Anyone care to shed some light on that?

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  11. #30

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Squalebear had a question this morning about stability of credit unions. Here's some additional info on the subject...there are 4 recent failures listed on http://bankimplode.com/, along with 7 listed as being in "conservatorship".

    http://www.ncua.gov/CLF/index.htm. This link contains up-to-date monthly reports about liquidity taps by FCUs at their own liquidity window-which is pooled voluntary funds by member FCUs, not coming from the Treasury or the Fed.

    FCUs are non-profit member-owned financial cooperatives with a long history, and actually expanded during GD(1?) .

    Even through the Great Depression of the 1930s, credit unions continued to proliferate, thanks in part to the creation of a national organization, the Credit Union National Extension Bureau, in 1921. The bureau organized a grass-roots movement that culminated in the Federal Credit Union Act passed by Congress and signed into law by President Roosevelt in 1934, which allowed for the incorporation of credit unions in any state or U.S. territory.
    More history available at https://www.osufederal.com/about/history.php

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  13. #31

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    As follow-up to last post above, found some additional information about Credit Union Insolvency process, for those interested in the subject:

    http://bankimplode.com/blog/2008/05/...-credit-union/

    The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) closed St. Luke Baptist Federal Credit Union on May 3, 2008. NCUA’s Asset Management and Assistance Center will issue checks to members holding verified share accounts in the St. Luke Baptist Federal Credit Union within one week.....

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  15. #32

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    Well, I was thinking last night that we'd cross up and over the SPX 5day SMA today, AND that we'd have a positive cross finally on the MACD too on the SPX, in which case I planned to jump partway into C tomorrow. Looks like it ain't gonna happen just yet. I'm waiting on those 2 for partial jump, plus ADX signal and SAR signals combined before I commit more than partial to C. Glad to know I'm getting something on G for the time I sit among the lilies.

    Meanwhile, did some rebalancing recently with my trad. IRA funds (much smaller than my TSP stash) to diversify and reduce overall IRA portfolio risk before the next leg down, but am still fully invested, whether that makes any sense or not, guess I'll see. I may make some additional shifts before September-October. Like move my ROTH IRA (again much smaller than TSP stash) into a discount brokerage IRA account so I can exchange it into ETFs for faster response to market (vs. 90-day buy-sell rules in mutual funds). I'm working on that angle now, but think I've got a little time to work it out so I don't jump too impetuously. This is a new concept for me vs. no-load mutuals so am on a pretty good but cautious learning curve.

    That next leg down? It's a comin', I'm convinced. 90-day turnaround rules in mutual fund IRAs means that by the time next big downturn arrives, I'll be ready with CP (relatively speaking), and looking for some lower-ball opportunities. That's the plan for now. Hindsight a year (2 years?) from now will indicate whether I've learned anything at all from my betters here and on Market-Ticker and TickerForum this past year.

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  17. #33

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    http://bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp

    Just discovered this site this morning, thanks to a post over on http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticke...www?post=51818

    Basically, this site is where you can get up-to-date objective hard data and analysis on financial status and fiscal safety assessments of specific thrifts, regular banks and credit unions-in any state or even community. I checked out my local cred union here and its doing at least average. BAC in my state appears to be lsubstantially less safe than its peer group-oh, I already knew that. This site helped me today to finally figure out what other bank in my community would be a safer location for my checking and savings accounts, I'm relocating a large chunk of my cash this week.

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  19. #34

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Practicing Birchtree's philosopy "be right and sit tight"-on the sidelines til this market finishes its dive for the bottom and finally starts coming back up for air. Love ya Birch, it's good advice, especially for those sitting in "spectator" seats right now.

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  21. #35

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Practicing Birchtree's philosopy "be right and sit tight"-on the sidelines til this market finishes its dive for the bottom and finally starts coming back up for air. Love ya Birch, it's good advice, especially for those sitting in "spectator" seats right now.
    LOL funny! Poor Treebeard...umm, Birch. The permabull is getting some shots in this bear market. I know he has read my thread, but he keeps looking askew at capital perservation even in a bear market. Oh well, not everyone can be 'saved from themselves' There are other's working to stop people from drinking his kool-aid though. It's entertaining

    I liked your reply in the DCA thread
    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    I don't know when a rally will start precisely, but I'll know it when I see it's started. I've been talking about this sporadically and somewhat cryptically in my thread, the indicators I've been learning about and watching and studying for entry signals include MACD, SAR, Keltner channels (which I haven't mentioned previously), ADX signals (that one is pretty complex and only really good for entries, not exits), and when I see the entire daily price range make it over the 5-day moving average coming up from below (HLC symbols or candles). I have occasionally jumped the gun and gone with a strong candle reversal signal, and had mixed success so far-its too quick for our 2x/month IFT situation.

    I don't rely on one signal alone, I'm always looking for 2 signals or more in combination to confirm these "intermediate" rallies have started, and for the other indicators to be moving that direction or close to getting there. For the return of the "bull" longer term, I'm waiting on the cross-up of the 20week over the 50 week (Karl Denninger's writings put me onto that one over at Market Ticker-we came close awhile back but never got there). I'm using my tracker account here to try different ideas, not always doing precisely the same thing in real account, but fairly close, timing a little different sometimes. I'm up over 2% in real account right now vs. tracker (-2%) due to slight timing diffs. If you'll notice I stayed out of the game this whole past week-none of my signals had hit yet, so I'm still waiting til 2 or more do in 1 of the funds-who knows when it will happen? I don't.
    Seeing anything from your indicators? Thanks
    100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.

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  23. #36

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Hey don't get me wrong, I like Birch, a lot, except when he goes into his patronizing mode about chicklets of course, that does annoy me too. And I admire the way he handles attacks, wish I could be that cool, calm and inspired. I usually just boil and think up something appropriate to say long after the moment has passed. However, I got chewed and spit out being a buy and holder in C 100% between 98-2003, since back then we only got quarterly paper statements and had gotten sold on the "don't look at your account", and longterm the market always goes up, etc. etc. The early years were spent in G too, with tokens in in C and F since I didn't have a clue what I was supposed to do). Now I've got 20yrs in and can't afford another 98-2003. CP is critical for me. My grandma is still alive and coherent and semimobile at 102.

    Meanwhile back at the ranch today, the AKG just dropped below 5day MA hard, SAR popped into sell signal, and price dropped below the 50% mark in Keltner channel. Not a good time to be going into F I don't think. I'd be thinking about bailing tomorrow if I'd gotten in much earlier/lower in that little rally. However, there is a longtailed doji going on, so I might hesitate to bail, see what happens tomorrow.

    As Tom noted this morning in Market Comments, MACD is creeping sideways in both SPX and IEE, no other signals looking any better, most signals still looking very downtrendy in all stock funds at the present time.


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