Thread: alevin's account talk

Originally Posted by alevin

Had dinner with several coworker friends last night. Tried to keep the conversation upbeat and off work, but ya know, kinda hard to ignore the pink elephant in the room. Talk swung around to local businesses closing doors, big deal in a small town, retirement, TSP, you know the drill. These are folks who've ridden the whole ride down, people with M.Sci. and PhDs. in statistics among other things. One declared they thought it the patriotic thing to do to stay invested through the whole mess, even tho they are currently trying to save for college for a kid next year ($80K-almost as much as my house cost!) Folks with not nearly as much as Birch has in the bank.

You have such a wonderful heart Alevin. The overwhelming odds are Federal Positions will be adversely dealt with soon and I suspect we'll see a Reduction in Force occur at many facilities.

Now it's absolutely impossible for any of us to not acknowledge businesses folding around us and jobs disappearing.

What you've described is the overwhelming reason I began comming to this site. BIRCH is one of the very few that can afford to B&H - but on the whole that's the worst way to go (at least in my opinion). Had these friends monitored things a little closer and had any clue the extent by which global weakness and toxic waste ruined the economy they may have fled to safety.

The patriotic aspect is HARD to avoid - and I have to admit that's often my feeling when I do go in. But it's not unpatriotic to conserve your life saving investments - and strive to protect and grow what you've accumulated.

I've got friends (and now relatives through marriage) that are out of work - and it hits home a lot harder when you can feel it the way you do.

They are rooting for Jon Stewart ripping Cramer tho, watch Jon nightly, so at least they have some idea of reality, but am afraid they will pay sorely for their disregard of reality the past year and 1/2. People within 10 yrs of retirement-FERS, not CSRS. How many other boomers like them? And they haven't been profligate with credit either, from what I can see, just simply got sold on buy and hold until it was too late to do anything else.

I've been FERS for a little over 6 years - and last year wiped out a huge amount - but fortunately I made quite a bit before that happened. Will probably break even at the end of this year if things continue going well.

I AGREE - at this point Holding On is probably the best thing. It may go down to new lows (and I personally think it will) - but NO ONE knows when the REAL BULL will kick in and staying in Guarantees you'll take in every penny.

I plan to go in fully this summer if things go as I'm expecting - and stay in beginning 8 or 9/09.

The cost of college is a pet peave for me - (health care rates too). I just don't see how they can keep pushing these huge increases year after year when it flys against reality.

Well take care - and you've done outstanding to preserve your capital - VERY SMART MOVE!!

OK - it's off to lunch

The problem is, if you've already rode it down, jumping now out is probably a bad idea because it "locks in" your losses (UNLESS you already are retired or near it). Will we go lower than November? Possibly, even probably. But that's not the question, the question is if you are stuck in now, how long can you have to wait, because even if the stock market never reaches the heights of 2006 again, IF you can wait, you can at least get something beyond the basement prices of today.

So perhaps it's the brave words of unhappy people. I think most know it's late in the game to bail, the bear has already raided the picnic basket.

Originally Posted by squalebear

Maybe those just entering will fair much better as were so close to a bottom. Buy and Hold will survive for them, that is until the next Bear Market and Recession hits them in the wallet.

Yah, had THAT conversation with one of the few young guys in our office over a work potluck lunch yesterday, he was surrounded by boomers. Told him the b&H rules he's currently following may need to be reconsidered when he reaches mid-career and the next big one hits.

As for the boomer friends, yes, it's more risky for them to bail at this point, we all agreed on that one-sad but true (I hope). some charts show us potentially only halfway through this epic generational reset.

FERS for 24 years and haven't ridden this market down thanks to the folks here educating me, otherwise I would of been one of the sheeple and would've bought into the B&H dogma. Now I'm afeared of jumping back in and that's almost just as bad, especially since I believe the Feds and big boys are playing games with the market and just trying to suck us main streeters back it.

I'm really torn, luckily I've got 4 years left and can still increase my retiremnt since I'v been mainly in G since Nov 2007 and am still ahead of my planned savings amount to date. But at the end of 2009, I gotta start up again. Hopefully we'll have more of a sign by then.

CB

I'm an evangelical buy and holder and I'm staying that way. The important strategy is to continue to DCA all the way down - dumping fresh money down the dark deep well and then continue to DCA all the way back up. That discipline worked fine during the last bear market (2001-2003) and a majority of buy and holders during that period came out smelling like a rose. You just have to buy your positions when the funds are on their lows - you get so many more shares for your money. It's the accumulation of shares that will hold you in fine stead in retirement.

Birchie, did I ever tell you about my early career IRA mutual funds that sank like a rock in 2002, climbed out of the B&H pit, only to sink back below where I started, as of this year? No net gain in 7 years, in fact a net loss, thanks to inflation? 7 years from now, where will those numbers be?

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I'm an evangelical buy and holder and I'm staying that way. The important strategy is to continue to DCA all the way down - dumping fresh money down the dark deep well and then continue to DCA all the way back up. That discipline worked fine during the last bear market (2001-2003) and a majority of buy and holders during that period came out smelling like a rose. You just have to buy your positions when the funds are on their lows - you get so many more shares for your money. It's the accumulation of shares that will hold you in fine stead in retirement.

Yeah, I think I'm just going to have to pick my spot and shut my eyes and jump. It's funny, I have no problem buying stocks with all my extra money, but the TSP is different, I guess because of less control we have on it, with only 2 IFTs.

CB

Congratulations to the risk-takers that have done well with this little rally (and bumped me and other Gfunders out of top 7 [temporarily anyway , it felt good while it lasted].

Just remember this bear takes no prisoners. Baltic Dry Index is giving you fair warning.

http://www.rubbernet.com.sg/baltic_indices.htm

Originally Posted by alevin

Congratulations to the risk-takers that have done well with this little rally (and bumped me and other Gfunders out of top 7 [temporarily anyway , it felt good while it lasted].

My sweet wonderful sister,

THANK YOU !!

It was an aweful feeling sinking down futher and futher (dramatics... here imagine me being like a super drama queen) WE ALL KNOW AT LEAST ONE

but just when all signs of hope were disappearing (cluching my chest, eyes closing and almost fainting)

S Fund sprang to life and threw me over 7%

I'm not use to that kind of stuff - and it startled me - then I realized 'Hey I'm a Pansy and I can be Pansy King - so I grabbed the Crown'

Hope you're enjoyjng my little story... I actually have a patient waiting on me ... came in after I started.

Just remember this bear takes no prisoners. Baltic Dry Index is giving you fair warning.

HOW RIGHT YOU ARE !! and THANK YOU for the WARNING

I'm just going to chill and enjoy ... and take my time

Have a great weekend and I hope all is well

I'm so glad! The rental neighbor who went over the edge into serious psychoses several weeks ago, finally left today for other parts of the state, permanent relocation, not coming back. the landlord kicked him out. He was supposed to have been out a week ago, but today he finally actually hooked the car onto the car trailer and U-haul and is really really gone. Finally.

a recently unemployed guy in his late 20s-mid30s, had previously done felony time for drugs and B&E, and on probation for something or other. He seemed moderately stable until about 5 weeks ago, suddenly all the neighbors were calling the cops on him, weekly or more often, for various reasons related to serious delusional behaviors affecting all the surrounding neighbors, including menacing and stalking the renter in other half of the duplex (due to delusions/hallucinations he was having). The other renter is my disabled (stroke) Nam vet friend who's been carrying his pistol with him constantly since the onset of the crazies. We've been afraid he'd be forced to use it. Cops and landlord all know he carries, and what could happen. Nobody seemed to be able to do anything about it, been waiting for something tragic to happen.

Mental health had been called in by the cops at onset, but wasn't convinced enough at the time to do a forced hospital admission, cops hands' have been tied since then. The only way finally to deal with the crazy was he'd only been paying partial rent for months on end, and had begun doing serious damage to the inside of his apartment after the crazies set in. Landlord was able to kick him out after giving 30-days notice. I've had some weird and scary neighbors in the duplex over the years, but this is one of the most nerve-wracking situations we've had. Feel bad for the guy, he doesn't know he's hallucinating, thinks everything he's reacting to is real, won't go to the hospital voluntarily. I've been deferring doing serious brush removal on that side of the yard until he's gone, was afraid he'd react to that, he's been so paranoid since the crazies started. Now I can get the tall shrubs on the fenceline removed this spring and not worry it's adding to his hysteria. I now have more mental space to think about TSP and market. YAY!!!

Allie, congratulations! I know this day has been a long time coming. I'm so relieved for you, my friend!

Lady