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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #13

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    I looked at a 5-DMA and an 8-DMA as well. However, I learned in my reading that Bollinger Bands typically use a 20-DMA to compute the mean price value. Given that, a 10-DMA seemed like a better sell signal. IMHO, using a 5-DMA leaves you a little too open to market volatility and while 8 is less open to market fluctuations, it just has a strange feel to it. Since I can't defend it, I went with the 10 instead.
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  3. #14

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    Smile Re: alevin's account talk

    Thanks Dr. F. I haven't gotten started learning about Bollinger Bands yet so I'm behind the curve there. I did hang in with F today despite my dithering last night since 5D+ indicators lookin' fine still. I do recognize that I haven't fully figured out solid sell signals yet, thats why I only posted what I'm thinking of as recent past "Buy" patterns for F and Stocks, that I intend to use as buy patterns for Stocks this next round and would likely use the next time I'm out of F and thinking about going back in.

    I know the 5day is more reactive than the 10-20 SMA, I'm hoping that having 2 other indicators give me the signals I'm watching to buy into Stocks will balance that out and will help me see what I need to do to finetune signals for exits from F as well that will get me out as early in the intermediate downturn as possible.

    I did look at your10day DMA yesterday, and when I paired it up with the other 2 indicators I'm using, it wasn't as good a fit. When you were playing around with 5 and 8D, did you consider pairing SMA up with indicators other than bollingers?

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  5. #15

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    Well, now that I'm no longer wasting my time searching fruitlessly for information I have no idea how to obtain, since I don't know even what paid service provides it, I can focus on something else that filtered into my conciousness a lot more slowly this evening. I swear there is so much to absorb, some things are going to go over my head about 6 times before I finally start catching on. I finally caught on tonight that TNX and TNY are indices I can look at, not just word descriptions of single day price information I can only see that day. Which means maybe I can figure out a way to run the formula Z has, and apply imy chosen indicators to those numbers the way I've been applying them to the AGG/AGK to try to get general trends for F. I might find it's not possible, but at least I'll figure it out with info I have access to.

    I'm so glad to discover that others here have found F as tough to understand as I have. Tonight I decided that I have to create new synapses so that my brain doesn't keep skipping back to AGG=F. 20 years of thinking that, believing what I was told!!!! as a young financially illiterate hire and continued to believe all these years what I'd been told, that F tracks the Lehman index-which I was given to believe meant it tracked it pretty closely. Hm, what else have I been told that was so dumbed down it ended up not being usefully true? Ok, the skip on the record is getting fixed, weighing down the stylus with a penny or 2 or 3 should get rid of the scratch so I don't keep recycling back to old thinking.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    I did look at your10day DMA yesterday, and when I paired it up with the other 2 indicators I'm using, it wasn't as good a fit. When you were playing around with 5 and 8D, did you consider pairing SMA up with indicators other than bollingers?
    I'm still in the process of wrapping my head around this stuff as well. I did play around with a few things, but I couldn't figure out how to get a decent buy/sell signal system. I tried various DMAs, but I didn't like the way and of that looked. As soon as I learned how to compute the Bollinger Bands, well .. I thought I might be on to something there.

    At first, I was looking at the -2 sigma line as a buy signal. But geez, some of our various funds have been riding that line down since the beginning of the year. So I went with the -1 sigma line as a buy signal in an effort to avoid buying into "downside volatility". Conversely, I suppose I should go with a +1 sigma to avoid selling on "upside volatility" - I'll have to look into that. But the 10 DMA might serve the same purpose, I don't know.
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  9. #17

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    It's certainly been a fascinating last 3 days around here. I really really wanted to ignore my new strategy this week, almost did when the indicators came close to signal thresholds last night. Glad I waited, I need to stick with the strategy to learn how well it can perform for me, can't be changing my mind all the time. None of the funds have hit my indicator thresholds yet as of tonight.

    I'm starting to see the value of waiting for objective indicator signals, really takes the reactivity out of my fingers, if not out of my gut. I'd have been following the high-fliers this week if I hadn't recently come up with a strategy of my own I need to get comfortable with. Kudos to all those who sensed the elevator taking off and got on board, and even bigger kudos to those who already stepped off, your sense of timing is incredible. I'm extremely uncomfortable moving so quickly back and forth (except when I started doing the seeing is believing thing with Ebb last fall for a short while), mainly because I screwed up pretty badly through 2000-2003 and am highly concious of CP at this point.

    I spotted the following news article this evening, I guess it got posted late this pm. If its not already posted at Market news, I'll post it there also, haven't checked yet. It makes me highly nervous about near-term future of F, also highly nervous of future of CSI as well, so I hope at least one of my indicators tell me to move out of F early next week, (like MONday!) whether it be to go to G or start buying I will have to wait and see.

    Anyway-the article:
    Stimulus plan may lead to higher mortgage rates
    the link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080125/...bonds_jumbo_dc

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    The past several days I've been reading Trend Following by Michael Covel. He's definitely helping me refine the conceptual strategy I already started working on before I stumbled into him. The weak point in what I've been working on is the sell points, I think his book will help me limit my downside risks as I apply some of the ideas he puts forth for intermediate turns in the market. Given me something constructive to chew on as I watched the snow come down all day today, and tonight.

    Will be fun going to work and back tomorrow, got about a mile of unplowed street to navigate in the morning and about 8-15 inches of snow or better by the end of tomorrow. Bought birdseed yesterday before snow started, waiting for snow to stop so I can put seed out for the ground feeders. They're going to have a hard time this week. Really hard time.

    dial-up's getting annoying beyond my patience level today finally. Tried to download v6.2 update of my internet security package tonight while doing other things, dialup cut me off about halfway through the download, got to start all over but not tonight. Thinking I'll likely keep my 15% in F awhile longer after all, depending on what the next 2-3 days bring, considering futures tonight. Snow will be bigger decision-making challenge tomorrow than F will likely be .


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Dickster, I thought we could continue the conversation on biodiesel here rather than fill up Griffin's thread, at least for the moment.

    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.p...postcount=1408
    From Dickster: Has anyone seen anything on biodiesel made from ALGAE? I have read some articles on the subject, the numbers look great and the technology exists but I don't see anyone rushing out to invest in it. Is there something I am missing???

    The following may help answer your question. They need the attention of the startup capital boys to get off the ground, probably things happening in the background we're not hearing about yet.

    The current state of the technology is not yet capable of achieving yields as high as theoretically possible, and the economics need further improvement. The UNH Biodiesel Group and a few other groups across the country are working on improving the technology for growing algae and processing it into biodiesel. Due to the lack of government funding for this field of work, UNH and its collaborators are seeking private partners to finance the continued development of the technology.
    http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

    We could start a thread on the topic of alt energy development if others are interested, put it under business news? or market news? or portfolio? Not sure where it would fit better. I know I'm interested, the PNW is a hotbed for alt energy investment esp biofuel right now, some of which fuel sources will have better longrange implications than others. The conversation continues.

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    S hit multiple Go signals on the 28th, I dilly-dallied waiting to see if they would hold up through Fed aftermath. They have.
    C hit multiple Go signals on the 30th, I dilly-dallied waiting to see if they would hold up through Fed aftermath. They have.
    I hit multiple Go signals on the 30th (barely). I dilly-dallied waiting to see if they would strengthen through Fed aftermath. They have.

    I took the plunge back in this morning. 40/40/20-I noticed I is lagging performance this past week, not sure if that will continue so decided to go lighter with it since C will pick up some of the overseas action as well.
    Remember I am using intermediate trend signals, not day-to-day, so its ok by me if they drop today as I'm buying, since intermediate trend does contain day-to-day flickers.

    I struggled whether to turn loose of my holding in F since its trend signals are tight right now, no solid trend one way or the other for the moment, but since the other signals are more solid I decided to let it go instead of using it to second-guess myself on the model I've begun exploring as of mid-January.

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  17. #21

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    OK, OK, I got it already. Bailed to G today. 2d move with Tracker $ this month. Signals showed up day before yesterday to get out but I dilly dallied on posting here. When I decided on my entry system, I did say I still had bugs to work out with my exit system. Yesterday and today proved it. Ouch! I moved my real account to G yesterday, and hadn't moved much in yet there, so didn't hurt as much as the practice account got hurt here, but still hurt a little. This is my learning time, still tweaking, esp. on the sell side, and learning how much to risk at any one time when I do start going back in with this system during these nerve-jangling times. Staying out of F til I get firmer re-entry signal either account. There's no safe place to hide right now it seems, so CP and G rule the day!

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  19. #22

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    Okey dokey. The AGG's MACD, ADX and >5 SMA indicators I'm using all suggest it's time to move back into F in a sizable chunk as of end of day today (maybe not all at once tho, I learned my lesson last time around). These trend-following indicators applied to the other funds do not suggest it's time just yet for me to plunk a bet down on any of them at the moment. I'll be moving back in in stages (2-or more if the mood strikes me) this new month instead of all at once (I decided to try and figure out how to manage under the potential new rules-before they actually hit, if they actually do). That way I can still move from F and/or G back into CSI with the 2d move this month if indicators shift again as I suspect they will sometime in next couple weeks.

    I wasn't sure if the the poorly thought-out proposed rules would count a move today for Monday as the 3d move in Feb or as the 1st move in March, so I decided to wait a day til I can be sure which month it would count in. What a way to run a retirement fund....Anyway, I plan to be moving into F on Monday for Tuesday unless Monday early am changes my mind for me.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    DCAing into F. trendfollowing signals say go-5d SMA, ADX-DMI, MACD. Wish I had the nerve to go 100% but no, not after I chickened out too soon last go round. It hurt. Still trying to just make up ground lost since started in Tracker while still test driving this 2moves/month thing at same time as testdriving this trendfollowing concept (too much at once?). Will be watching rest of the week, ready to punch another button if indicators tell me to. At least I regained 20 tracker positions on Friday.

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  23. #24

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    Post Re: alevin's account talk

    Haven't posted much here lately, hasn't been much to say. Been sitting here watching F go dowwwn, then uppp since I moved in part way a week+ ago, the MACD faked me out last week, but been in a sideways move lately, so even tho was tempted to bail few times, managed to hang in for recent recovery. Would be nice if it went back up to where I bought in at least. glad I didn't go in 100%. This intermediate trend-following strategy is tricky even when using multiple indicators.

    Ran across a blog yesterday that pointed out that using weekly averages, using the 20 week SMA x 50 week SMA, trend following w/ SnP has not lost $ over the past 20 years. Check it out. When I try looking at things that way, there's no indication things have turned around yet for CSI, nor close to turning around. This is a longterm trend indicator I'm going to start using until things turn around for good then will think about trying to operate intermediate trends w/in longterm up. I really really don't want to lose CP right now. Retirement looming over my shoulder-I fumbled all the way through 1998-2003 in C, DCAing all the way believing the mantra the market always goes up-eventually, time heals all.

    I couldn't make the20/50week MA strategy work for AGG/F-some other factors operating w/bonds over the long haul. Only applies to stock indices.

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