Page 16 of 76 FirstFirst ... 614151617182666 ... LastLast
Results 181 to 192 of 912

Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #181

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    I'd never heard of Kress cycles before today. No need for red face, I never heard of Kress myself til last week or so. I was only familiar with Kondratieff's name. Now that I know the cycles are based on Fibonacci, I'd better dig into them more. Careful, cycles not based on Fibs, just the opposite, Fibs are subelements of cycles-from what I just read in one of the articles above.

    And you, like Squale, are one of the tenured professors of the site! Aw shucks. I'm on such a steep learning curve myself, as Birch says, the teacher learns more than the students, e.g. having to talk about what I'm learning helps make it clearer in my own mind.

    One small question to pick your brain again if I may. I've been doing a bit of research on RSI(2) and RSI(3), which appear to give good direction but have some whipsaws. I was struggling with the 1-2 day ups/2-3 day down sideways movement back in the fall, got so frustrated with the mini-shifts almost but not being predictable that I just backed off of trying to nibble. The article below uses the 2-day RSI [RSI(2)] as an entry signal when 1) the stock or ETF is above its 200-day moving average, AND 2) the RSI(2) signal drops below 2 on the scale-applies to stocks only; 3) the RSI(2) signal drops below 30 on the scale-applies to ETFs only.
    apparently you can reasonably count on a short-term up move from there if those conditions are met. Link to that article is here. http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/081210/18536.html?.v=1

    I'm still grasping all the nuances, have to keep going back and re-reading the article, I've gotten a good grip on the concept of RSI(2) and concept of indicator dropping below 30, but keep forgetting the part about being above 200-day MA first, and keep forgetting the part about stock signal vs. ETF signal, so until I get those things straighter in my head I shouldn't be trying to use the RSI(2) for any big moves.

    I know Stockcharts.com uses RSI(14) as its default, but that appears to be a bit slow in combination with my other preferred indicators. It appears that you are using RSI(10). Any special reason you picked that one?

    Sorry I'm not being clear on that one, not using RSI(10) for anything. I'm experimenting with RSI(2) signal dropping to 10 or below on the scale for short-term moves (experimenting with my 5% of 5% new contributions). Kind of got it muddled up with the monthly RSI(14) indicator currently being below 30, even tho the monthly signals not rising yet which they should be doing before a serious move back into the market per that other article which Birch was all over already. Learning as I go, baby steps, fall down and laugh a little, try to stand up again. When you don't put a lot into the experiment it doesn't hurt a whole lot when it doesn't work-learning. Babies are a lot closer to the ground,when they fall down it doesn't hurt that much, just a little ego-bruise. :toung:
    Lady
    Alevin
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  2.  
  3. #182

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by CountryBoy View Post
    alevin,

    below is a link that may be helpful in obtaining a Gov't job as a Vet.

    http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1810/

    Have a safe and Happy New Year,

    CB
    Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action.

    He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  4.  
  5. #183

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Peoples Republic of Ohio
    Posts
    2,373

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action.

    He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.
    Your welcome alevin,

    I know what you mean about them being shills for the FRTIB, especially Ralph Smith, who definately is a mouthpiece for the TSP board.

    CB
    “Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution.” - Huxley’s Brave New World

  6.  
  7. #184

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pacific Northwest
    Posts
    709

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Thank you CB! I used to read fedsmith regularly, until I got disgusted about their articles in support of FRTIB and the accompanying uneducated comments from so many feds re TSP frequent trading. Nonetheless they do have many excellent articles on other topics that I've found useful in the past. This is one of the best. I'll pass on to my brother, not a diesel jock tho, he's a diesel mechanic-second career. He was in during Gulf I but ship was in drydock the entire time, his ship returned from the Med the week before Khadafi shelled our ships, so many near misses in his 23 years, it's a miracle he never saw live action.

    He doesn't know yet that he could be looking for a fed job, this article is likely to motivate him to look and check out the local possibilities. He will be limiting his search to the local area which is a state capitol decent population size, he moved there last year for (grand)parental proximity reasons and just bought a house big enough for growing family this fall.
    Is your brother also here in the PNW? If so where is he thinking of applying? Sounds like he may have skills for PSNS & IMF in Bremerton.
    Morality, like art, means drawing a line someplace.
    - Oscar Wilde

  8.  
  9. #185

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    I wish he were in Bremerton. He tried to get moved up there longterm when he was in San Diego, but other than short term stints with ship, it didn't happen. If he were there now, I'd probably see more of 2 first cousins and families than I do now. But no, he's in a Rocky Mtn. state to be closer to our parents. AF base tho. What series are you thinking? Maybe the AF could use those same series? He was in weapons-control guidance systems electronics as well as now a qual'd experienced diesel mechanic.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  10.  
  11. #186

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Pacific Northwest
    Posts
    709

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    I wish he were in Bremerton. He tried to get moved up there longterm when he was in San Diego, but other than short term stints with ship, it didn't happen. If he were there now, I'd probably see more of 2 first cousins and families than I do now. But no, he's in a Rocky Mtn. state to be closer to our parents. AF base tho. What series are you thinking? Maybe the AF could use those same series? He was in weapons-control guidance systems electronics as well as now a qual'd experienced diesel mechanic.
    If he was applying in the shipyard which is Department of the Navy, I would recommend DON0856 job announcement which is a GS-0856 series electronics technician or DON2604 job announcement which is a WG-2604 series electronics mechanic. I don't know if the other services use the same series numbers or not. Have him check https://chart.donhr.navy.mil/
    They list jobs all over the country and there may be some openings in his state.
    Morality, like art, means drawing a line someplace.
    - Oscar Wilde

  12.  
  13. #187

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Thanks JB. Series codes are universal since they come from OPM, apply across agencies. Not all agencies hire in same series tho, even if agencies look similar on the surface. They may hire in somewhat similar series, but not necessarily the same exact series due to slightly different agency missions. He looked into a private sector aviation mechanic job recently but he's not qual'd. The company's looking for ex-AF, since those guys are already qual'd and experienced. I'll have him look into the 2 series you mentioned.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  14.  
  15. #188

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    I'd never heard of Kress cycles before today. I agree with you that it isn't economic voodoo. I'm a firm believer that the # doesn't just keep cropping up by accident.
    Lady

    I've refused to believe that any 'Wave Theory' or 'Cycle Theory' could predict and largely define the Markets (and Economic Conditions) with substantial and sustained accuracy.

    Charts and Historic Volume (+/-) are no guarantee either. So I've typically gone with 'my perceived trends'.

    This is honestly the first real evidence of something that is almost impossible to dismiss. The Kress Cycles seem to resemble Fractal Geometry which is something I'm very grounded in.

    If my research pans out - and I can see things the way Kress did when he came up with this theory I might be able to predict with even better accuracy. The huge advantage to his theory is that you have cycles within cycles - a symmetry and balance - most of the others lack. So far his accuracy is starteling (if not utterly shocking).

    It would be the biggest change of my life - to believe the underlying fundamentals and various factors are in reality influenced by predictable cycles - but at this point I am very open to discovering that possibility.

    Alevin, I hope things work out for your brother and all the more hope they work out for Sis.

    There are way too many Waves and Cycles for me to take the time to discover in detail; but this one is Challenging and Entertaining and may be exactly what I need to teach my children. Hopefully I'll have more to give in the years to come.

    Have a blessed and happy New Year - my wonderful friends - and know you are very much appreciated.

    Steady

  16.  
  17. #189

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Hmm. did I mention the weather we've been having? 2 weeks of 4x4 driving, followed by ice dams, roof leaks and roof snow shovelling. Flooding is now here and rising. One way in and out of my neighborhood to get to town or anywhere else Hmm. lower end of neighborhood impassible at 100 year flood stage for sure (happened a couple years before I moved here). I live outside the 100-year zone, but may become trapped either in home or away from home if this keeps up. Flooding supposed to drop by tomorrow, but more rain to come on Sunday. Guess I'll find out what flood stage creates inability to enter/leave neighborhood by watching NOAA website today and monitoring conditions at the far end of the street. Haven't decided if I'm going to try to get to work today, might not be able to get back home. My neighbor the disabled vet has no transportation. If things get really rough, we may have to head for the hillside on foot, couple houses over from here. Supposed to drop below freezing again by 5 tonight at least. Hope my daggone flood insurance payment has made it to its destination, it was due on Tuesday but with mail slowdowns from weather, who knows? Does this mean the market's bound to get better this year? Foul weather precedes market upturn by 6-9 months?
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard


  18.  
  19. #190

    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Utah
    Posts
    1,991

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Allie, please stay safe, know that we're thinking about you, and please give us an update as you get a chance to let us know how you are doing.

    Take care,
    Lady

  20.  
  21. #191

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,105

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Thanks Lady, will stay safe as I can, just not sure just yet what the better move is, I can stay home, stocked up on supplies and bills paid (or at least in the mail), and help watch out for neighbor, or go to work as planned and end up in motel on the hill for awhile, I lost my remaining kitty earlier this past month due to worsening health problems, so don't have to be concerned about pet care at least. I won't be driving into or across flooded areas, thats for sure. Seen videos of active culvert wipeouts, 100-year flood events as they occurred, and dealt workwise with damage from 100-year flooding in one of my agency's management areas years ago.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  22.  
  23. #192

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Thanks Lady, will stay safe as I can, just not sure just yet what the better move is, I can stay home, stocked up on supplies and bills paid (or at least in the mail), and help watch out for neighbor, or go to work as planned and end up in motel on the hill for awhile.
    Hmm...it's a tough call. If going to work means you'll be in a motel then that will add up pretty fast. If you've got TIME SAVED UP it would be good to use that and explain your circumstances to whoever you report to. That way you'll know what's happening to your home and will be on hand for the neighbor. If you lose power to your home, or are forced out, something will open up to you. If you don't have any TIME - I could donate a week.

    We'll hope for the best - but don't hessitate to ask for help if you need it.

  24.  
Page 16 of 76 FirstFirst ... 614151617182666 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
alevin's account talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
alevin's account talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
alevin's account talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
alevin's account talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes