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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #157

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Been away from the market the past 3 days. Lots been happening while I was out, eh? I'm still working off ADX and 9/13 counts discussed previously. We met the 9/13 count signal for I last week finally, but as I also showed, the 13-count is not perfect, and sometimes 15Week MA works better, sometimes the ADX works better, so far neither of those indicators are anywhere close to buypoint so I'm going to wait for some I.

    I'll post some charts tomorrow pm to give updates on ADX and the 9/13 counts for SPX and EMW. We haven't gotten anywhere's close to buy point with those signals yet. I'm really glad I picked lag indicators to work with, its just a question of finding ones that keep me fairly safe with regard to CP, but that also help me move back in on swing/trend change or not too long thereafter. The 9/13 count signal is based on weekly close, so lag by a week at least. The ADX signal is also a weekly one. My conservative CP risk-averse approach to TSP. I do believe there is plenty of time to build up my teeny little brokerage account I just started and still do some bottom feeding. Don't want to eat up the teeny account with bunches of trade fees. Still doing my research for time being.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  3. #158

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Back again, ready for something, not sure what...more turkey? Hope everyone had a great TG. I did. It's sooo amazing what's out there on the wide wide web to trip over just wandering around. Stumbled across a really cool chart tonight, thought I'd share.

    http://www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk%27s_chart.htm

    There are other great current-data charts at rubbernet, I plan to stop back there to visit on a regular basis now that I've found them.

    The Monk's Chart
    This chart, which was prepared many years ago by a Monk, shows when good and bad times have occurred and when they will occur again. Some outstanding dates were 1870 - the Franco-Prussian War - dear bread and scarcity of money in 1870, the Baring Crisis 1888-1890, 40 failures on the London Stock Exchange in 1888 to 1890, the American crisis of 1893, the South African War, 1899-1903, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904. 1915 speaks for itself, and so do 1931 and 1942. Recent recessions in the U.S. occurred in 1973-75, 1981-82 and 1990-91. The year 1999 was the peak of the high-tech boom and is shown at the top of the chart with the dismal down-turn indicated to last for 6 years to 2005.
    This chart is a useful form of guidance for business transactions. Certainly, there is a case for giving it consideration. But in all transactions in commodities and securities there are individual factors which have to be taken into consideration. Sometimes those individual factors may go against the general trend.
    Legend:
    Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again: Their cycles are 16, 18 and 20 years.
    Years of good times, high prices and the time to sell stocks and values of all kinds: Their cycles are 8, 9 and 10 years
    Years of hard times, low prices, and a good time to buy stocks and goods and hold until the boom reaches the years of good times: Their cycles are 7, 11 and 9 years.


    Tom, I hope posting the interpretive commentary with the chart doesn't go beyond fair use. Sounds like this chart has been around a long time in various editions, I hunted to see if could find reference to it on some other site but couldn't, so maybe only exists in hardcopy media elsewhere.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  5. #159

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Rats. I must have a cheaper battery in the PU than I used to have. It's not even zero outside (10 degrees f), and the battery is so low it won't start the engine. All the years I've lived in subzero climates (at least a few days a year), I've always been able to get vehicle started without overnight battery warmers-until now. Going to be late for work today, recharging battery and then recharging the battery charger. First time using the battery recharger-plugs into cigarette lighter. will see if it really works-supposed to wait 1/2 hour and then run the engine another 1/2 hour to recharge the charger before turning engine off or unplugging the charger.

    Ah well, gives me more time to contemplate life and market behavior today. Still researching individual dividend stocks-so many aspects to consider before plunking $ down. Never done this before so no hasty ill-considered knee-jerk impulse buys for me. TSP is inviting, signals not quite where I want them to be just yet, but close.
    Last edited by alevin; 12-15-2008 at 11:46 AM. Reason: edit
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  7. #160

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Rats. I must have a cheaper battery in the PU than I used to have. It's not even zero outside (10 degrees f), and the battery is so low it won't start the engine. All the years I've lived in subzero climates (at least a few days a year), I've always been able to get vehicle started without overnight battery warmers-until now. Going to be late for work today, recharging battery and then recharging the battery charger. First time using the battery recharger-plugs into cigarette lighter. will see if it really works-supposed to wait 1/2 hour and then run the engine another 1/2 hour to recharge the charger before turning engine off or unplugging the charger.
    .....TSP is inviting, signals not quite where I want them to be just yet, but close.
    Hi, Alevin, sorry to hear about your battery problems. Hope you can keep your hands warm enough in all the futzing around to fix it!

    Lady

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  9. #161

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Rats. I must have a cheaper battery in the PU than I used to have. It's not even zero outside (10 degrees f), and the battery is so low it won't start the engine. All the years I've lived in subzero climates (at least a few days a year), I've always been able to get vehicle started without overnight battery warmers-until now. Going to be late for work today, recharging battery and then recharging the battery charger. First time using the battery recharger-plugs into cigarette lighter. will see if it really works-supposed to wait 1/2 hour and then run the engine another 1/2 hour to recharge the charger before turning engine off or unplugging the charger.

    Ah well, gives me more time to contemplate life and market behavior today. Still researching individual dividend stocks-so many aspects to consider before plunking $ down. Never done this before so no hasty ill-considered knee-jerk impulse buys for me. TSP is inviting, signals not quite where I want them to be just yet, but close.
    Yeah, don't get in a hurry when selecting your stocks. I researched everything I could and made notes, spreadsheets, stock screeners, you name it, I did it to compare the various key statistics of all the stocks, before I began buying and I've fine tuned it for about a year and a half until I've settled on my 11. Plus I also maintain a spreadsheet of about 50 other divvy payers with about 15 being on what I call my "Wannabe List" (potential future purchase) that I also continue to track. You really never stop researching, but it does get easier as you learn more.

    Good Hunting and Good Luck,
    CB
    “Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution.” - Huxley’s Brave New World

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  11. #162

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Well, had to hitch a ride into town with a neighbor to buy another battery to jump the old battery. So glad I have neighbors. My plug-in little charger didn't do squat even after being plugged in for over an hour. Happily jump was easy with the new battery. I'd parked head-in so couldn't get another vehicle in there or would have done that as I normally do. Oh well, now I'm prepared for rest of the week-supposed to go to zero tonight with wind chill on top of that. Also bought an outdoor mechanics light (with lightbulb) to stick under the hood tonight. Auto parts store didn't have any dipstick heaters, I asked. Lunch then back to the salt mines.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard


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  13. #163

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Well, had to hitch a ride into town with a neighbor to buy another battery to jump the old battery. So glad I have neighbors. My plug-in little charger didn't do squat even after being plugged in for over an hour. Happily jump was easy with the new battery. I'd parked head-in so couldn't get another vehicle in there or would have done that as I normally do. Oh well, now I'm prepared for rest of the week-supposed to go to zero tonight with wind chill on top of that. Also bought an outdoor mechanics light (with lightbulb) to stick under the hood tonight. Auto parts store didn't have any dipstick heaters, I asked. Lunch then back to the salt mines.
    You must have one of those Wal-Mart "Never-start" batteries.

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  15. #164

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    OK, this joke hit my funnybone this morning. thought I'd share. :toung:

    1. This appears to be a variant of a joke told in many countries. One peasant asks another, "How does a telephone work?" The second replies, "It is like a big dog, with the tail in Isfahan and the head in Mashdad. You pull the tail in Isfahan and it barks in Mashdad." The first replies, "But how does a cell phone work?" The second replies, "The same way, but without the dog."
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JL16Ak02.html

    Gumby, nice try. No cigar. The battery was from Schucks, not Wal-Mart (Walmart is across the street from Schucks tho ). PU required more than new battery for jump-starts yesterday. discovered air intake hose had deteriorated and needs replacing. One of those stretchy corrugated hoses that connects between the manifold and the fan (I think it connects to the fan anyway, I know it connects to the manifold). It has pulled away from its carb attachment just a little, but when I stretch it to try to reattach it just pulls away again. So after hitting all 2 auto parts stores in town, I had to call dealership 50 miles away and order one. Sure glad I spotted the problem. It should get here maybe next Monday, so I'm sticking close to town until I get the new one on. Besides who wants to travel in zero-degree weather anyway? Supposed to go to 10below tonight. 3 degrees out now.
    Last edited by alevin; 12-16-2008 at 08:26 AM. Reason: re Walmart
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  17. #165

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    Besides who wants to travel in zero-degree weather anyway? Supposed to go to 10below tonight. 3 degrees out now.

    That is a good excuse to stay home and keep mama warm.

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  19. #166

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Hi Allie, I'm watching your ADX signals today. Fascinating!

    Lady

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  21. #167

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Gumby View Post
    That is a good excuse to stay home and keep mama warm.
    Give yo mama a big ol' hug from me. I'll stick with my kitty. Mom's too far away.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  23. #168

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    Hi Allie, I'm watching your ADX signals today. Fascinating!

    Lady
    Aren't they? I'm working off the weekly ADX(11), combined with the 9/13 strategy I ran across more recently. coulda jumped into I a couple weeks ago with the straight 9/13, but decided to wait for weekly ADX to confirm or else 15wk MA, whichever comes first. Coulda jumped into C this week based on 9/13 count but still waiting for that stubborn 13 to show up, not to mention the ADX teasing and the 15wk MA hovering overhead still.

    I'm thinking of bailing into I partway tomorrow for the heck of it, now that the daily ADX (14) is finally showing something playable to confirm the weekly 9/13, plus the jump in daily over the 50MA. Yeah, think I'm going to play a little tomorrow. It's time. I don't want to spend my 2d IFT on C til the 13 shows up or weekly ADX gets where I want it (preferably both). It's still easier for me to time getting in than it is to get out so I want to get a reasonably reliable extended trend going so I have some up/down cushion on weekly basis.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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