Thread: Corepuncher's Account Talk

I ended up about 7% for 2007. This is despite making 1 very bad move...

After being "out" for a prolonged period of time, I decided to go 100% in stocks for a "short term bounce", then get back out. Guess what day I went in? July 25th. The market then tanked, but I rode the wave all the way until right after the September FED meeting, when I got the <BLEEP> out of Dodge! I was so happy just to get out of that unscathed!

So, I"ll take 7%! One thing I have to learn is when to get back in after being out. I was actually out from summer 2006 until that fateful day this July! I missed a HUGE rally. Now I"m hoping for another restest of lows (lower 1400's or so) to get back in, with incoming economic data determining exactly how long I want to trade ranges before getting in and sitting tight.

Does anyone have any "rules of thumb" when it comes to determining when you should cut your losses and get back into stocks (after being out a long time?).

Welcome to the mb! The rule of thumb is "stops". How much are you willing to lose? 5%, 7.5%, 10%? It has to be a number of your choosing.

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

Does anyone have any "rules of thumb" when it comes to determining when you should cut your losses and get back into stocks.

There's never an exact number for stops. You've gotta find your own comfort zone. For example: If you trade with support and resistance in mind, then use a stop when support breaks. Just make sure that you stick to your method in order to keep emotions out of it.

No matter what the formula is, there will be head fakes when it comes to stops. Hedge Funds control close to 2 trillion US dollars in the market. They know just the right buttons to push when they need to trigger a mass of sell orders.

Hello all. I really enjoy the challenge of market forecasting, and am learning more all the time. My profession is weather forecasting, and believe me when I say forecasting the weather is much easier than forecasting the market! For one thing, the atmosphere as to adhere to certain "rules" governed by physics....the market, well, it can do anything.

I find that some of the methods I use in forecasting weather also work, in general, with the market. I think the key is to not get too specific or precise, there is always grey area and you really need to think in terms of probabilities.

I actually was running a program on my linux computer at home trying to develop a method to beat the market based on historical S&P data. I may ressurrect it again at some point, it takes time to code that stuff, but it's fun.

As for the current market...I am bearish. I know we have all kinds of contrarian indicators, like Bulls to Bears ratios, etc, but, let me ask you this...do those methods work when you are in a downtrend? For example, I'm sure the bears outnumbered the bulls many times during the last bear market of early 2000's, which is a "buy" signal, right? I'd like to see a system that helps you avoid bear markets altogether! The 50 ma crossing below the 200 day ma worked very well in hindsight the last bear market...and that signal has appeared now:

chart

By the way, we have good 5 weeks before the effects of the late July/August correction bring the 200 ma much lower, so if we move down, sideways or even slightly up, the 50 ma will still be below the 200 ma.

So, I'm apt to remain 100G or F until the market breaks out convincingly above the 1500-1520 mark, when we stop making these "lower highs".

welcome to M B i see your in my back yard normans my stomping grounds G L & see you around

flight line cafe at max westhiemer has a great breakfast or lunch

I just don't see very much upside, even if the jobs data friday is slightly better than expected. 1480-1500 range tops? Is a mediocre jobs report something to cause a rally to within 3-5% of all time highs on S&P?! The way things are going, any rally early or mid day may be sold off by the close.

Speaking for myself, I'm not going to short cover until 1400-1420 range. Judging from what I have been hearing others say, a test of those levels and perhaps sub-1400 is anticipated...so why would anyone who is out get back in at 1450+?? I think there will be continued lack of buying interest until we gradually edge down below 1435, just my opinion.

In the FED minutes they also mentioned a scenario where they would have to repeal rate cuts.

"Members also recognized that financial market conditions

might improve more rapidly than members expected,
in which case a reversal of some of the rate cuts

might become appropriate."

MACD below zero and crossing signal line, 50 day ma below 200 day ma, and uncertaintly still exists as a background worry. Oil is 100 dollars...say it out loud...100 dollars a barrel!!! I'm not smart enough to know exactly how all the mechanisms work in the economy, but I can say that in general, there is a lot of uncertainty out there, and just pure probability an chaos theory suggest there will be a much better buying opportunity in the next few months. Another bad sign is Intel and AMD were down HUGE last couple days...uh, last I knew, Tech was LEADING the market?? New lows much higher than new highs on a daily basis. We are now below the mid-point of the 52 week range in the S&P.

My "best guess" scenario: Between now and the next FED meeting, we hit a low between 1400-1415. That is when everyone jumps back in, causing a short term rally to 1450-1460, then the FED does something "white knight-ish" and boosts the market further, eventually stalling 1480-1520.

DISCLAIMER: my prediction is unlikely to verify, use with caution and as always, consult your own financial advisor!

Originally Posted by DennisFAA

Is that in MWC near Tinker?

no in norman off of 0ld 77 highway turns into flood st

Not really sure about this but I'm going from 100G to 25 C, 25 I, 50 G.

While there is a chance the shorts could cover late in the day, there is also the chance we could sell off further. The latter is what I am hoping for.

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

Not really sure about this but I'm going from 100G to 25 C, 25 I, 50 G.

While there is a chance the shorts could cover late in the day, there is also the chance we could sell off further. The latter is what I am hoping for.

I just signed up for the auto tracker and would like to start off 2008 on the right foot....I missed the "deadline" for the autotracker. Is there any way someone can put my info in for Friday? Who controls it? Thanks!

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

I just signed up for the auto tracker and would like to start off 2008 on the right foot....I missed the "deadline" for the autotracker. Is there any way someone can put my info in for Friday? Who controls it? Thanks!

What worked for me when I did this too late - was to post right then into the "comments line" , what I'd meant for COB that day. Later, the change was made, and I also got a PM that either "Ocen" or "EW_ret" can make these changes

Other option is, go here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/private.php , > on the left, click to "send a new Message" (PM) > In "To" line, start typing, for example "Oce", and a list will come up with a bunch of contact persons names that closely match > all you have to do is select the one you want from the list.
- then just describe what happened, what you had intended/what change should be.
Good Luck here, and welcome!
VR