Thread: Corepuncher's Account Talk

so - CP looking like a repeat monthly return leader for 2/3 last months?; I followed your move into F-fund; you are my hero.

Anyhoo - I have been watching the ^VIX SMA's, and the 200 SMA just inflected - it's still high (~31 or so), but now all three (20, 50, 200) are moving down together for the first time in a long time, last time this happened - the market moved higher - but it wasn't without it's moments; so I am mostly out for now, especially with headline domination - that tends to produce larger shorter term fluctuations. Not for the meek.

They need to give me a prize for number of IFT's; I plan to have 50 or more by year's end.

Great call. Your move and the Harry Dent video, I went to F before the smack down last friday.

Went 2/3 into stocks today... 33I 33S 34G.

Our close today was the highest since May...and now we are in an uptrend. The anatomy of this "bottom" is such that looks like 1220's is reachable, which would be a double top. Currencies have stabilized, but dollar is crashing and I think it will overshoot to downside...which means stocks go up, markets go up, bonds go down....although I still like F fund, but going out as I expect a correction if stocks rally.

The VIX also is breaking down...closed below 200 day ma. If we can get through all the economic data this week, we are set for a 7-9% rally from here! I'll be buying more stocks on a dip if we get one this week.

Remember, larger funds have to move money in slowly...they can't go 100 in all of a sudden...that gives us an advantage as we can strike quickly (sounds like shark investing!).

dude, you left the easy money behind.....tsk, tsk, tsk.
How are you gonna get any sleep now?

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

Went 2/3 into stocks today... 33I 33S 34G.

Our close today was the highest since May...and now we are in an uptrend. The anatomy of this "bottom" is such that looks like 1220's is reachable, which would be a double top. Currencies have stabilized, but dollar is crashing and I think it will overshoot to downside...which means stocks go up, markets go up, bonds go down....although I still like F fund, but going out as I expect a correction if stocks rally.

The VIX also is breaking down...closed below 200 day ma. If we can get through all the economic data this week, we are set for a 7-9% rally from here! I'll be buying more stocks on a dip if we get one this week.

Remember, larger funds have to move money in slowly...they can't go 100 in all of a sudden...that gives us an advantage as we can strike quickly (sounds like shark investing!).

This rally has awaken me from my slumber. Got caught in the downdraft like so many times before, but like each time, I was patient and may be rewarded with an opportunity to profit, although it could have been "so much more", but isn't that always the case?

I think this rally will continue as long as Bonds continue to slip. This little AGG correction seems quite stout...and has broken support. Seems like the general concensus is for this to continue...which would mean you don't want to be in F fund. I'll go G for safety from now on.

Anyway, just a little TA below. I THOUGHT mid July might have been a shoulder, and I got excited and bought at the top in early August. I stayed the course and now have almost made back all those losses. It is tempting to get out if I hit my last buy price which was 1126 on the S&P. However, that could be an equally bad choice as the rally might persist past that point. If all is quiet on the news front and some volume returns with more of a "risk on" appetite developing, we could see lower 1200s on the S&P. An inverted H&S would yield a nice double top around 1200-1230.

The othe possibility that I see is that we stay in this "range"...except since everyone knows the range (1120-1040), it may start to "narrow"...with lower highs and higher lows. If we stall under 1120s and drift back down, I would think a target around 1060s would be in order...then when we finally do converge, I would expect a drop. But, I think this scenario is less likely than a shot back up through the 1100's. We'll see. If negative forces (near term) can wane, then the market can revert back to it's natural tendency, which is to drift up.

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

This rally has awaken me from my slumber. Got caught in the downdraft like so many times before, but like each time, I was patient and may be rewarded with an opportunity to profit, although it could have been "so much more", but isn't that always the case?

I think this rally will continue as long as Bonds continue to slip. This little AGG correction seems quite stout...and has broken support. Seems like the general concensus is for this to continue...which would mean you don't want to be in F fund. I'll go G for safety from now on.

Anyway, just a little TA below. I THOUGHT mid July might have been a shoulder, and I got excited and bought at the top in early August. I stayed the course and now have almost made back all those losses. It is tempting to get out if I hit my last buy price which was 1126 on the S&P. However, that could be an equally bad choice as the rally might persist past that point. If all is quiet on the news front and some volume returns with more of a "risk on" appetite developing, we could see lower 1200s on the S&P. An inverted H&S would yield a nice double top around 1200-1230.

The othe possibility that I see is that we stay in this "range"...except since everyone knows the range (1120-1040), it may start to "narrow"...with lower highs and higher lows. If we stall under 1120s and drift back down, I would think a target around 1060s would be in order...then when we finally do converge, I would expect a drop. But, I think this scenario is less likely than a shot back up through the 1100's. We'll see. If negative forces (near term) can wane, then the market can revert back to it's natural tendency, which is to drift up.

that MACD certainly looks convincing. I don't see any positive move of substance that didn't continue for a week at least.
Alot can happen over a 3 day weekend. A dive in may be in order.

Corepuncher,

I'm trying to remember where I remember you from...I enjoy the positive vibes though.

Originally Posted by crws

that MACD certainly looks convincing. I don't see any positive move of substance that didn't continue for a week at least.
Alot can happen over a 3 day weekend. A dive in may be in order.

Yes, I like the higher lows/higher highs in the MACD while the market has consolidated sideways. Economic backdrop still sucks though.

I still think there could be a rally based on nothing, but I"m thinking this quick low volume rise may be sold soon. Near A LOT of overhead resistance on the charts. Since F fund is down so large today, I figured I'd take a gamble...100F.

Is it just me, or has the P&F chart become a great contrarian indicator??

Bonds SOARING today.
Stocks faltering with continued low volume.
Gold up to new high.
Dollar getting killed, yet OIL is down.
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SUM = Lame macroeconomic backdrop, flat to down equities long term.

Staying long 100% F fund. The FED will likely buy more bonds.

My hope is to refinance my 30 year mortgage at < 4.00% within the next year.