Thread: Corepuncher's Account Talk

Seems EVERYONE is keying in on this symmetric triangle, possible big break. Could it be a self fulfilling prophecy??? I think so. I think the shorts smell blood, and if I had a side account, I'd go all in SDS. Question is...what level will the big cover be at? I think a good rule of thumb is 20% down from latest peak of 870 ish. That puts us right about 700...a nice round number.

I think if you want to catch a big bear rally, perhaps go in just shy of 700...before the shorts come out. That is my plan. Remember, this can all happen in a couple days...40-50 pt moves X 2 and we are already near the target!

Based on the way the spx channel is dipping (see my post #608), I think the big short-term cover will come just under 740. There is channel resistance here as well as the November 2008 low of 741.02. On the way down there may be some resistance at the bollinger band at 818.06 that was touched last Thursday.

Check out Denninger...

FX dislocation in Asia

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

It's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n roll.

Uh oh...maybe it's the news out of Japan? Worst quarter since either 1997 or WWII depending on who's talking, a drop of 12.7% in GDP? See my posting under World News.

Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra

Check out Denninger...

FX dislocation in Asia

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

It's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n roll.

Originally Posted by Silverbird

Uh oh...maybe it's the news out of Japan? Worst quarter since either 1997 or WWII depending on who's talking, a drop of 12.7% in GDP? See my posting under World News.

This might be currency intervention by Japan. The other currencies have leveled off while the Yen is still falling. Maybe it was a combination of both. Somebody blew up, forcing the the BOJ to step in.

That sounds ominous.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

Originally Posted by mojo

That sounds ominous.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

Sure does. He did an update saying the markets have calmed somewhat, but, just goes to show how unstable everything is. Being in stocks at this moment is as risky as roulette wheel at a casino.

On the surface, a "strong dollar" sounds like a good thing, but it is not. Our exports will get crushed...and exports are like 3X the size of the housing market in terms of GDP.

One thing is for sure...if you dollar continues to rocket up, it may be a GREAT GREAT GREAT time to buy OIL and GOLD, then sell it all after the dollar craters sometime in the future!!!!!

Cliff diving anyone?

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

On the surface, a "strong dollar" sounds like a good thing, but it is not. Our exports will get crushed...and exports are like 3X the size of the housing market in terms of GDP.

One thing is for sure...if you dollar continues to rocket up, it may be a GREAT GREAT GREAT time to buy OIL and GOLD, then sell it all after the dollar craters sometime in the future!!!!!

Cliff diving anyone?

LOL!!!! Swan dive?

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

On the surface, a "strong dollar" sounds like a good thing, but it is not. Our exports will get crushed...and exports are like 3X the size of the housing market in terms of GDP.

One thing is for sure...if you dollar continues to rocket up, it may be a GREAT GREAT GREAT time to buy OIL and GOLD, then sell it all after the dollar craters sometime in the future!!!!!

Cliff diving anyone?

boy , i hope this aint me today , kind of looks like me

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

(2/12/09)... I think there is a better chance that we are down more either Friday or Tuesday. No low today.

Indeed, down a bunch Tuesday. Technically, we have just broken very key levels. On the S&P, we are hanging in "mid air" with the next Resistance level around 805...and support, well, 741...the November intraday low. Therefore, we easily can move another 4-6% lower before we "bounce." BTW...check out the dow transports...ouch! If you follow DOW theory, you have to be extremely bearish right now.

Today's price action was interesting...almost like a small "capitulation" in which there was not really panic selling, but everyone decided to lop off a big chunk of their stock holdings. Almost like we are searching for a new equilibrium level...and that level seems to be lower. Given the lack of a rally today, it seems everyone is "ok" with going lower.

My target to buy 50% is still 750-760 or so. I think there is a decent shot at another big (> 2%) down candle this week. Maybe housing numbers will be a catalyst for tomorrow.

PS..and would you get a load of the GAP DOWN today? Look at NASDAQ...wow!