Thread: Corepuncher's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Eldritch Flatus

Hi, ...we must buy gas at the same pump on 2nd street!

Eldritch- if you can make it to I-25 and Alameda, $2.67/gal as of today.

Sorry to hijack your thread, Corepuncher, to talk local Albuquerque gas prices, but hey- 32 cents is 32 cents!

http://www.albuquerquegasprices.com/

Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra

Eldritch- if you can make it to I-25 and Alameda, $2.67/gal as of today.

Sorry to hijack your thread, Corepuncher, to talk local Albuquerque gas prices, but hey- 32 cents is 32 cents!

http://www.albuquerquegasprices.com/

No problem. I lived in ABQ in 1999. West on Paseo Del Norte then exit Eagle Ranch Road :-)

I don't like this market either JTH. I also don't like thinking about getting out then having it plummet before Nov 1st then not being able to buy.

Could it be a successful retest of the bottom? Kinda looks like it...but only time will tell. I like how we are rallying in the face of HORRIBLE economic data.

Somehow though, I feel that this quarters earnings are much better than next will be...and even though everyone knows Q4 will be bad, it will look soooo bad, the market will go down.


Updated Tracker COB 10/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: -9.45%
2-Today: +4.23
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Preliminary sell target: S&P 1100
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I've lowered my "get out" target back down to S&P 1035. That would give me a 0% YTD, which I would be perfectly content with.

If we are lucky, the big earnings calendar next week will impress and result in somewhat of a rally back to maybe S&P 1050. It may be the perfect time to sell some stocks at that point because the next couple months of data will be SO bad, that not even the normally forward thinking discounting mechanism of Mr. Market will be able to keep it from falling. I'm going to look to sell some stocks before COB 10/23. The reason is, we have Existing home sales on the 24th, then New Home sales on the 27th (a Monday). I predict them to be HORRENDOUS. The week of Nov. 3rd really has me scared with the "RED OCTOBER" employment report and I'll be out for it.

Updated Tracker COB 10/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: -10.02%
Today:-0.62%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Sell target: S&P 1035
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My son and a co-worker both got contracts on the same day for the purchase of existing houses. (We're going to check out our son's this evening. ) Thats 2 sales that I know of right there. Both are in Metro Atlanta where there wasn't that big of a bubble. I'm thinking the report on existing home sales will be better than you think.

As for the rest of it, I still haven't a clue.

Housing starts slid 6.3% in September to their lowest level in 17 years. Year over year, housing starts (817,000 annual rate) were 31% below the level of construction in September 2007. One silver lining is that the decline in housing starts - the third steep drop in a row - should help whittle down existing housing inventories. Seems to be working.

The 13 week T-bill yield has really gone up which is a good sign...



Looks like it is on track for the highest close since the S&P was in the 1200's. Good sign #1.

The dollar continues to breakout to the upside:



And then Gold:



If Gold couldn't break out above 1000 over the past few months when there was true panic, when will it ever? Not only is the world not ending, but inflation is in check.

The "trillion" dollar question, IMO, is what is the correct valuation of the stock market? Regardless of what number it is, I believe the next few months of economic data will be absolutely horrible. When it comes in, the market will have no choice to go down from whatever level it will be at. It will stoke fears of just how big of a wrench did these few weeks of credit freeze throw into the global economic machine.

Personally I'm shooting for an S&P target of 1050+ in order to lighten up. As long as the bond yields, gold, the dollar and energy prices are behaving, then the market should foam upwards barring any new negative catalyst. If those metrics begin to fall apart, I'll consider bailing but no reason to at this point. It sucks to miss huge "potential" gains. 8 more trading days this month before November hits...and that is why I didn't sell early in the month. Who knows where we will be in 8 days? S&P 1100? I've got ~30 yrs until retirement so for me there is little pressure to freak out too much. As long as I don't sell low and buy back high, I'm good. That is the risk you run when you go in and out. That is why I did not get too greedy in September. I sold, then bought back 100+ S&P pts lower than when I sold. That locked in a great gain. Of course I could have locked in a heck of a lot more, but you're either too early or too late. If there is one thing I've learned it is that I don't want to be out for the start of rallies. Now, I don't believe there will be a new bull market anytime soon...but rather a range.

I think the upper end of the range could be 1100-1200....bottom 700-800. And I think in the next few months...we'll use ALL OF IT so get ready!

Noob here... did I just read this right? Seems like your frosty view of the future is warming up some?

At 400 points a day the next 5,000 points could miraculously be reached in 12.5 days. I'm glad I'm not on the lilly pad.

Well turbo, I cannot deny how the market seems to believe we have put in a bottom. Like Jeff Macke says, trade the market you got, not the one you want. Another day like today and I'll be back to positive. I can almost see daylight.


Updated Tracker COB 10/20/08
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2008 YTD Return: -5.24%
Today: +4.78%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Roll with it
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