Thread: hessian's Account Talk

The TNX/MACD sure makes a case for moving to the F Fund while waiting confirmation there is more downside. PROBLEM - AMBAC. Thoughts?

Originally Posted by Tomncath

The TNX/MACD sure makes a case for moving to the F Fund while waiting confirmation there is more downside. PROBLEM - AMBAC. Thoughts?

Hi Tomncath,
First, welcome and please recognize, that I consider myself new at all this still. I've been learning now for ~6 mo., and as a result, I'm still first to admit that I'm not comfortable advising others - I just present facts as I see them. That said, as Show-me pointed out, 350z is IMO also, the best souce for info in Bonds, TNX, F-Fund and such info.
Personnally, though I am thinking of placing majority in the F-Fund for Monday - but I will be checking -hoping to hear from 350z on this -if it's still wise at this time -given his opinion that if bail-outs of Bond Insurers occur, this would be bad for the F.

Otherwise, I'm sticking with my plan (& TSP Board's BS limits), which is, I plan to also start dollar-cost-averaging some small amounts into stocks (emphasis on "small amounts"), very soon it seems, perhaps even as soon as Monday.

To your other question, re: AMBAC (expect your question relates also to MBIA, etc). Its anybody's guess right now. Again best source, IMO is 350z, he showed us this issue first, and continues vigilence & advice in his posts. Basically, he's said any bail-out will also be bad for stocks as well (will involve major writedowns). You also heard Chairman Ben himself, saying that: "many Banks will likely fail/go under" - and personally, I think you gotta take his words as likely an understatement of the facts!

IMO, patience will win in the end. Stay frosty, watchful and agile -in the current market, oppportunities, or big losses, can come quick (as this current market can "turn on a dime").
Other factors can also quickly change the market picture, such as: if the PPT actually gets in gear, plus other unforseen factors, or the like of major institutional moves. Currently its like the wild, wild, west -only this time, its financial.
To quote 350z "at least the issues are contained - to the earth!"
VR

Thanks VR. I pulled this from his thread about the TNX/MACD...just thought I'd get your take and others on your thread...trying to balance it all out. Heck, in the interest of hearing from both sides I don't even mind hearing from Birch ...no offense Birch, who loves ya baby

Originally Posted by Tomncath

Thanks VR. I pulled this from his thread about the TNX/MACD...just thought I'd get your take and others on your thread...trying to balance it all out. Heck, in the interest of hearing from both sides I don't even mind hearing from Birch ...no offense Birch, who loves ya baby

Hey Tomncath,
Smart! I'm basically doing all same that you are. I'm NOT a bear, nor a permabull, just a seeker of truth & wisdom -like you I assume. If you find the holy grail/unravel the great mystery, be sure and let me know friend, OK??!!
VR

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

Thanks Birch, to be honest, F has always given me the heebe-geebes also. Stocks are now coming closer into the range that I was hoping for, so that may be the better move, very soon. Finally, now coming closer, within sight (& maybe still able to maintain TSP's BS 3 IFT/mo limit).
Much Thanks
VR

Thanks guys, and Birch, I do honestly value your input. Everyone here puts balance on the issues. The bigggest problem I have is thinking within a 3 IFT limit when none of us here except Birch is use to this concept.

test...
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Originally Posted by Birchtree

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

Hey Birch,

Please tell me if um crossing the line...but,...now, now, the F fund is not all that bad in times like these...eh??? - BIGBULLY!!

Originally Posted by BIGBULLY

Hey Birch,
Please tell me if um crossing the line...but,...now, now, the F fund is not all that bad in times like these...eh??? - BIGBULLY!!

Hey BigBull-y,
I'll answer that one. Playing in the F-Fund is much like playing in the stock funds (C, S, I) - you can lose as well as win - and therefore there is better times than others be in it! Uncertainty over the Bond Insurers, plus a plethera of other more normal factors, had it a too hot to play for awhile. Now however some of the factors are looking better - but I agree with Birch its really, and in some ways, more complicated to understand what drives it, and therefore how to predict, therefore never one I ever cared for much either.

- Recomend 1st read backwards a couple weeks in "The F-Fund" thread - as background info.

- Then also do the same in 350ZCommTech's AcctTalk thread - here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...497#post153497

Only then will you begin to understand some of the main issues, and risks, even now while some folks are now considering to move into it (maybe partial move, anyway), but its never without risk (and needs to be "played" just like any of C, S, I).
VR
and Good Luck!!
PS -- "G" is the only safe/no-risk Fund.

test2

"...a man comes on the TV - telling me more useless information..."
(The guy in the red pants, reminds me of the whipsaw its been all year!)


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