Thread: ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ContrarianJeff

I got long a couple of days ago for a purely technical reason--it appeared that the SPX was going to bounce off of a rising Keltner channel (see the 3rd chart down here -- // www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Terrence Laundry - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com ). Figured it was worth a shot. Sorry I can't be of more help.

Nice chart. I did not know about Keltner channels. Will have to check it out on investupidea. Thanks - it's always an education around here!

Good to hear from you...ill drag you out in another 4 months to see whether or not you catch a glimpse of your shadow

Originally Posted by ContrarianJeff

I will say this: patience and humility are always good things for me to learn, and I know that God cares a lot more about my character than my retirement account. So, as I seek to honor Christ, I hope that my character is improving even as my spot on the autotracker keeps falling. And seriously, I'm very happy for my buy and hold friends and family who are doing well right now. They are being rewarded handsomely for hanging in there, and that's fantastic.

Amen!

Patience and humility are good things to remember.
That is the meaning behind my signature line.

But, I have noticed you moving rather rapidly up the Amway Ladder. Going Diamond Club again. Soon you will zoom right past me as I wallow in an allocation with 70% sitting on the Lilly Pads... Yuck, but things just don't feel right...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Yuck, but things just don't feel right...

Actually, I agree. I guess I'm staying in the market because I continue to see skepticism about this rally. For example, although we are near multi-year highs (and in some cases all time highs), 55% of the folks on the TSP tracker are in bonds or cash right now. And given that they are on the tracker to begin with, I assume that these are people who actively manage their accounts and are typically very aggressive in betting on stocks. That fact alone is pretty amazing. Who knows--maybe the TSP Talkers are becoming the smart money and a large drop is about to take place? On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

Nice to see you around again Jeff.

With this rally getting to be about 6 months old now, I think there's a lot of folks with their finger on the sell button. You can always tell because just a whiff of bad news and the markets drop like a stone. I've been noticing that lately. However, I just don't see the market tanking four Mays in a row. As soon as something becomes a pattern, just like that, it's not.

You said it!!! I feel exactly the same, which is why I bailed completely out of the I fund, but salted a small portion in the C fund thinking any movement will be more buffered there and I will still have some exposure to the market for the end/beginning of the month rally.

Originally Posted by ContrarianJeff

Actually, I agree. I guess I'm staying in the market because I continue to see skepticism about this rally. For example, although we are near multi-year highs (and in some cases all time highs), 55% of the folks on the TSP tracker are in bonds or cash right now. And given that they are on the tracker to begin with, I assume that these are people who actively manage their accounts and are typically very aggressive in betting on stocks. That fact alone is pretty amazing. Who knows--maybe the TSP Talkers are becoming the smart money and a large drop is about to take place? On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

Originally Posted by ContrarianJeff

On the other hand, maybe stocks in Europe will clear resistance and take off? (The EFA just rose above its May 2011 high.) That scenario seems virtually impossible to me, but the fact that I don't hear anyone suggesting it (except the Point & Figure chart on EFA) makes me think that it is possible. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

And here I am thinking of putting money in the I today...

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

And here I am thinking of putting money in the I today...

I moved back to the I-fund earlier this month... I am as happy as BT in Pamplona in early July. I had slipped to lower than 100 with a bad move out of and back into the S-fund that dropped me about 2%. The I has pulled be back to the top 10 <fingers crossed>.

Originally Posted by NiteFlyer

The I has pulled be back to the top 10 <fingers crossed>.

Congratulations! Nice move. The I fund is looking strong again today.

has it been four months already...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...
this is your alarm clock going off, don't even reach for the snooze button...on your feet
wouldn't going all F be the true contrarian play...everyone and their brother is bad mouthing bonds and for the first time in years it's in the red...tell me all your thoughts and leave nothing out