Page 258 of 261 FirstFirst ... 158208248256257258259260 ... LastLast
Results 3,085 to 3,096 of 3127

Thread: Uptrend's Account Talk

  1. #3085

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    1,667
    Blog Entries
    60

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    The market has been fluctuating during OX while some of the internals are quietly deteriorating. Don't know what to make of it really. However, I am still looking for the next 2 to 2.5 weeks to be down. The US dollar and gold are not showing direction at the moment. Oil looks to be starting a relief rally. A tough environment to trade at the moment. As a momentum trader of stocks, I welcome volatility so I hope some elite force starts to rock the market. Holding cash and ready to plop down on VXX or XIV, but I want some action! These trades are so good, if you plan entries and exits right, there is little need to look for other trades. Just trade on fear and greed and world turmoil -what could be better than that? The TSP funds are difficult to trade because of light volatility and then the TSP boards further restrictions on trades make it almost impossible to make the right moves. Like going out for a few days to maneuver around a drop and then coming back. At least there is something to look forward to- at age 59.5 you can simply get out and roll to a discount trading house. But there is a caution - little volatility in TSP funds may have been your friend because, you have more opportunity to lose your money faster, particularly if you don't understand TA and throw your funds into stocks willy nilly. The trading elite are smart, and have all the tools to kill the retail investor. To survive you need to outsmart the fox. One way to do this is through discipline. For example I NEVER play earnings. Why? Because it is like gambling -the elite can damage the stock by missing eps by 0.01 or any such silly nonsense. Their whole game plan on a good stock is to scare the retail investor so they can buy more shares. Better to get out and if it goes up 20%, oh well, look for another opportunity and if it goes down by 20% - you just spared yourself a lot of pain.

  2.  
  3. #3086

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Looks like you'll be getting some volatility today. Thanks China. lol Thinking there'll be A LOT of evening stars.

  4.  
  5. #3087

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    I've found that if you develope a portfolio comsisting of dividend growth stocks and reinvesting the dividend righ back into the same stocks until you need the income, you will set yourself up for a more secure financial future. Today will rock my socks. I allow my capital gains to take care of themselves until I need them later.


  6.  
  7. #3088

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    1,667
    Blog Entries
    60

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    It appears that this bull market refuses to quit. My uptrend system is indicating a "buy" for C and S based on the close Wednesday 12/3. New uptrends are vulnerable for the first few trading days. There is little indication the US dollar bull run is going to top anytime soon when looking at the weekly charts. However, we did get a northern shooting star on the UUP daily chart today. And we have negative divergences and a BB constriction. If it holds, and the US dollar falls, we could see a kickstart in energy and commodities that could get a Christmas rally going. Also gold would benefit. The weekly EFA chart for the I fund is getting interesting. If the US dollar takes a rest, we will have a I fund buy. After seeing the open Wednesday, I will decide, whether to follow my system. My sentiment reading is still to positive (which is negative). However, I see a lot of negative stuff on the commonly read financial news sites, so that is a plus. When no one is looking, why then...

  8.  
  9. #3089

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    1,667
    Blog Entries
    60

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Christmas rally starting. My signal on 12 03 was a miss. Glad I waited. Expect SPX 2050 in coming days. Went in 60 S 20 I and 20 C

  10.  
  11. #3090

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
    Posts
    6,312

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Uptrend View Post
    Christmas rally starting. My signal on 12 03 was a miss. Glad I waited. Expect SPX 2050 in coming days. Went in 60 S 20 I and 20
    20C 60S 20I

  12.  
  13. #3091

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    1,667
    Blog Entries
    60

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    2014 has been tricky to trade. Lightning reversals leave one behind, if didn't get on board at the right time. Technical indicators can help define, where these events would occur, and that has helped my trading this year.

    Here is what I see for 2015:
    1) SPX will trade much higher, up to the 2230 area (8% rise) and then a powerful reversal with a primary wave 4 trading back to the 1850 area. This will still be a bull market, and primary wave 5 would get going near years end.
    2) The US dollar index will continue to rise to the 102.5-105 area. This will pressure gold and commodities.
    3) Gold will fall to $900 or below, before starting a multi-year recovery. The start of the recovery may coincide with the wave 4 retracement of the SPX.
    4) Crude oil will bounce back to around $67 on short covering, before falling to $40, then back to a $55-$70 trading range and be locked in for months. Gas at the pump may fall as low as $1.80-$2.00 gallon. Some of the smaller US shale players will go bankrupt.
    5) The FED will hike the federal funds rate sometime in the 3rd quarter, and this would be a catalyst for the market retracement. An improving job market and upward pressure on wages would be inflationary and force the FED to act.
    6) Foreign dollars will flow into the stock market and bond market as the rest of the world eases to create stimulus. Large and Mid-cap stocks would be the winners, that do not have too much globalization. McDonalds is not one of them.
    7) The replacement cycle is coming upon the US. There is pent-up demand for large ticket items, that have been held off since the 2008 crash. The auto and housing sectors should do very well. The baby boomers retiring and needing new/different housing and leisure/travel options would be a bright spot.
    8) Apple will peak, as the wearable watch will be a flub.
    9) Heavier weighting to the C fund over S is my choice for 2015. The F fund would be the choice when the market hits SPX 2230. Avoid I, unless the USD is falling and a trend confirms it.
    10) Expect volatility and don't get shook from your position for no reason. Hold your ground.

    I can't predict the future, just ideas. This is not investment advice, just rambling. Predicting the future is just too much fun. Trade well and Merry Christmas!

  14.  
  15. #3092

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,151

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Uptrend,

    Great year by the way. Should have been watching you closer.

    What do your charts say about the "I" fund? I've been hearing chatter that the "I" fund is do a breakout since it has been trailing the American markets the last few years.
    May the force be with us.

  16.  
  17. #3093

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    3,651

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Uptrend View Post
    2014 has been tricky to trade. Lightning reversals leave one behind, if didn't get on board at the right time. Technical indicators can help define, where these events would occur, and that has helped my trading this year.

    Here is what I see for 2015:
    1) SPX will trade much higher, up to the 2230 area (8% rise) and then a powerful reversal with a primary wave 4 trading back to the 1850 area. This will still be a bull market, and primary wave 5 would get going near years end.
    2) The US dollar index will continue to rise to the 102.5-105 area. This will pressure gold and commodities.
    3) Gold will fall to $900 or below, before starting a multi-year recovery. The start of the recovery may coincide with the wave 4 retracement of the SPX.
    4) Crude oil will bounce back to around $67 on short covering, before falling to $40, then back to a $55-$70 trading range and be locked in for months. Gas at the pump may fall as low as $1.80-$2.00 gallon. Some of the smaller US shale players will go bankrupt.
    5) The FED will hike the federal funds rate sometime in the 3rd quarter, and this would be a catalyst for the market retracement. An improving job market and upward pressure on wages would be inflationary and force the FED to act.
    6) Foreign dollars will flow into the stock market and bond market as the rest of the world eases to create stimulus. Large and Mid-cap stocks would be the winners, that do not have too much globalization. McDonalds is not one of them.
    7) The replacement cycle is coming upon the US. There is pent-up demand for large ticket items, that have been held off since the 2008 crash. The auto and housing sectors should do very well. The baby boomers retiring and needing new/different housing and leisure/travel options would be a bright spot.
    8) Apple will peak, as the wearable watch will be a flub.
    9) Heavier weighting to the C fund over S is my choice for 2015. The F fund would be the choice when the market hits SPX 2230. Avoid I, unless the USD is falling and a trend confirms it.
    10) Expect volatility and don't get shook from your position for no reason. Hold your ground.

    I can't predict the future, just ideas. This is not investment advice, just rambling. Predicting the future is just too much fun. Trade well and Merry Christmas!
    Thank you for sharing Nostradamus .... errrr, I mean, Uptrend.

    It might have been fun predicting, but I want you to know that it was also interesting and fun reading. It also seems like a great practice/exercise that we all as investors should do going into a new year. I'll be interested in seeing how your first 4-5 predictions play out over 2015.

    Oh, and congrats on a great TSP year. You hit two grandslams this quarter -- amazing!

  18.  
  19. #3094

    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    1,840
    Blog Entries
    6

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Congrats on reaching the top of the 2014 Non-Premium Autotracker!

  20.  
  21. #3095

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Congrats on reaching the top of the 2014 Non-Premium Autotracker!
    Good job Uptrend on reaching the top spot. Will continue to keep close tabs on your Uptrend thread next year.

  22.  
  23. #3096

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    1,667
    Blog Entries
    60

    Default Re: Uptrend's Account Talk

    Thanks for the congrats. For 2015 here is what I see. C and S funds should show strength, with small caps leading again. I don't think we are even close to a top. Further, the I fund should take off. EFA has been under accumulation for awhile now. I see a 9% rise minimum in the first half of the year for the I fund. Oil should trade briefly into the $40's and be volatile. I have been in and out of COP, OXY, XOM,CVX,AXAS and RIG and don't expect the swings to stop anytime soon. Oil energy could be the trade of the year in 2015 with all kind of swings. Gold/silver should tank further, after perhaps a brief pop in January-February (while the US dollar very overbought condition takes a breather) and I am not ruling out $950 on gold. I also like large tech, cyber security, cloud storage, home builders and suppliers and auto manufacturing and suppliers for 2015.

    My uptrend system is stilling showing strength and remains in buy mode in the daily timeframe. The selling today should not amount to much. This could change when increased volume returns to the market next week, and I will be monitoring those developments. However, I just don't see any big sell-down right now or in the next several months for that matter. But who knows how the market masters will trick everyone. My sentiment system, is turning slightly bullish (bearish for stocks), but could easily swing the other way. Happy New Year!


  24.  
Page 258 of 261 FirstFirst ... 158208248256257258259260 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Uptrend's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Uptrend's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Uptrend's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Uptrend's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes