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Thread: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

  1. #961

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    DrFaustus, Would U Please be so kind and remind me what DMAS (3,6, and 12).... How does the DMAS works? Thanks!!!

    I know the MACD moving average convergent divergent.... I assuming U referring to the divergent DMAS...

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  3. #962

    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    I understood DMAs to simply be Daily Moving Averages. With those low values (3, 6, 12 days), I'm guessing the leveling out is indicating a consolidation -- followed by a possible breakout. Up or Down is the question.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  5. #963

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Cactus is right ... DMA ( or MDA, as they are more commonly know ) is a Daily Moving Average. A 3 DMA for the S fund for Nov 14 would be ( 35.6505 + 35.6438 + 35.8300 )/3 = 35.7081. These are indeed short term averages ... the more common long term ones ( a 200 DMA, for example ) are used by the "buy-and-hold" crowd. It takes a LOT of movement in a given direction to move these long-term values significantly. Well, we all know how I feel about about "buy-and-hold."

    Anyway ...

    I'm going to be in a conference this week and therefore I'll be unable to respond in a timely fashion ( ie, by noon ) to market moves. However, that doesn't mean that I can't share what my curves are saying ...

    Right now, the S-fund is in an ALERT status - meaning that the market is trading sideways and could go either up or down. If the S-fund looks like it's going to close down by 0.85% or more tomorrow ( Nov 17), my curves indicate that a SELL signal will be generated. Act accordingly ...
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.


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  7. #964

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Thank U so much Cactus and Dr. Faustus 4 the clarification... on DMAS... My Conical Prognostic (Trend [Fed], Cycles [Moons Phases], Seasonality [Months], and Moving Market Events [Economics Indicators].... is indicating to stay on S-Fund till end next week if the TSP.GOV would be open that day... otherwise I may stay till the Monday of the following week... I mean Dec 1st...

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  9. #965

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    TSPIntel ... yer welcome. : ) My charts are suggesting a "stay the course" action as well, which is a little scary given that Wed ( 11/26 ) is most likely going to be a low-volume day and thus prone to wild moves. Oh well, I don't seem to be doing that badly so far this year. : )
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  11. #966

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Well, the indices are all telling me to get out of the S fund come Monday. The large drop on Friday is indeed cause for alarm but there are a couple of factors to keep in mind. 1) It's a Friday after a holiday (and Black Friday at that), so it was probably a low-volume day and thus subject to wild swings. Which is a reason to "stay the course." However, a drop that large might indicate that the market has no underlying strength (shock) and is therefore indicating the markets might drop further on Monday. Hard to tell which set of reasoning is the most valid. Watch the market indicators on Monday ... if it doesn't look like we're going to be heading into positive territory, my advice is to BAIL, BAIL, BAIL !!!
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  13. #967

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Wow ... Mon, Dec 1 and the indices are dropping FAST! Bot Action? I dunno ... but I'm heeding my advice and bailing from the S fund and switching to the F fund COB today.
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  15. #968

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    I can't win .... lol
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.

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  17. #969

    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    I know the feeling.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  18.  
  19. #970

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    As a buy and hold aficianado I never have to make those difficult decisions to get in or out. I just ride the cycles.

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  21. #971

    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DrFaustus View Post
    I can't win .... lol
    That's exactly the way I feel. At this rate I won't even make 10% this year.
    Is today Saturday again?

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  23. #972

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    Default Re: Dr Faustus's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    As a buy and hold aficianado I never have to make those difficult decisions to get in or out. I just ride the cycles.
    Interesting, Birch! I never knew you were a buy-and-holder. And a very successful one at that. Hard to argue against buy-and-hold with a person of your credibility/record. Maybe I should take notice! : )
    Last edited by DrFaustus; 12-04-2014 at 07:54 AM. Reason: correct typo
    To get to the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to be willing to face the train.


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