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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #1

    Join Date
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    Default Boghies Account Talk

    On 2007/06/03 my holdings are: 30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I

    Trading Commentary / System???

    I’ve been lurking for months – maybe even a year or so. I would like to thank all of those who are brave enough to post their holdings and holding strategies here.

    Personally, I prefer to balance my holdings and not trade too often. I am waiting for Barclays to change their trading policies (or fees) because of some of the rapid trading seen here – yuk, yuk. Hopefully, we are a bit under the radar!!!

    I have partaked in only two trades this year – but will not try to Monday (or January/May) Quarterback the system. For background only, on January 19th I moved from a safety first 100% position in the 2010 account to a standard 60% C / 20% S / 20% I holding pattern. I have ridden that horse till May 30th when I took some ‘beginning of summer’ profit and started jogging for the hills at 30% G / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I. That is my current position. Additionally, I am concerned about amateur hour China affecting the I fund – I mean, what other states would both own the means of production and sell radiator fluid and rat poison in food and toothpaste. That is the nice thing about a free, non-socialist, economy. A bad apple like Enron doesn’t implicate all elements of the economy – but the repeated findings of rat poison in Chinese exports will, in my opinion. My YTD return is 9.62% as of COB 2007/06/01.

    I have recently started reviewing the accounts managed here and really enjoy 12%, Pill, and Cattman. I am also intrigued by SafetyGuy – he seems to hit the market only in the upswings!!!

    After reading everybody else, I think it is time to demonstrate either my ability or lack thereof!!! In general, I view the G fund as a cash fund to reinvest into one of the market funds on a downturn – i.e. a dollar cost averaging holding tank. I use the L funds when their holding patters seem to match mine – but, basically I use them when I am a bit at a loss and a bit lazy. I am not fond of the F fund – it is neither consistent nor effective as a risk mitigation fund. I use the C and S funds to balance the entire stock market. Obviously, I use the I to have fund distribution and to move money away from US assets. The one thing I very much dislike about the G fund is that the Federal Government can borrow from it when the debt ceiling doesn’t cover their spending habbits. I don't want to be left with government IOUs!!!

    On 2007/06/03 my holdings are: 30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I

    China exporting radiator fluid in toothpaste hurts the I fund but Europe is raging. Folks will have to move their real-estate money somewhere as they sell so the stock market should be ok. However, we are hearing about tax code changes – and that is not a good thing. All in all, taking a 5 month 9+% gain partially to the bank seems wise to me – and the summer is usually a stagnant time for the market anyway…


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  3. #2

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Welcome Boghie! Thanks for joining us and good luck!

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default 2007/06/01 Holdings: 30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I

    30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I

    Moving US and international holdings to G Fund. This will mitigate a market downturn and provide assets to reinvest later. The market (both US and International) seem mildly shaky right now...

    I will be looking at moving more stock assets to the G Fund on a weekly basis - especially in a market downturn. I will be watching each fund carefully to note trends that are not flat...

    Tom, this post is part of the original. I am trying to follow the directions to the 'T' to make things easier.

  6.  
  7. #4

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Welcome Boghie! Nice posts!
    Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."

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  9. #5

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    Default 2007/06/05: Dollar Devaluation...

    To All,

    The United States will almost balance its budget for this fiscal year (October 1, 2006 through September 30, 2007).

    You will be reading many articles like the following:
    Persian Gulf Tide of Depegging from the U.S. Dollar Flows Into China

    Basically, the US will only be selling $70 Billion in treasury investments over the current fiscal year. Nations flush with cash will have to look elsewhere to park their money. Oddly, parts of the stock market may be one area. Other regions of the world may also compete for bond dollars. Next year the US government will once again be demanding redemption of high interest Treasury Bonds - probably to the tune of about $150 Billion.

    I do not discount, however, the fact that the dollar may lose its status as the currency of choice. I think that things will change when the less stable entities that are the current darlings of the national banks economically flop...

    We shall see...

    Regardless, I am thinking of moving another 10% of my TSP holdings from the stock market (C,S,I) into the G fund - maybe Friday. We shall see...

    :toung:But, for now, hold that course...

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Another thought on China...

    The I Fund does not contain much in the way of Chinese investments.

    Thus, if assets are flowing out of Chinese stocks we must ask where are those assets going. Those assets will be transfered to safety. That means America or Europe or Japan.

    Another reason to stay in our stock market.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Unique perspective, I've got got to think about this!!
    04/02/2020
    CRUDE Oil
    =$25.32 a Barrel, Daily Status +$5.01

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Transitioning from a:
    0% G / 0% F / 60% C / 20% S / 20% I

    to:
    30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I

    saved me 1/3 of the losses, eh...

    about 1% of my total retirement was not lost...

    And, while this does not feel like a correction (a real one that is) there will probably be another day to a week of downward momentum. Call it a total of a 5% to 7% 'correction'

    I will start reinvesting the G holdings when we are at a 5% loss from the high point. Maybe 10% a week or so...

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  17. #9

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    Unhappy Just Left 30% on the sidelines :-&

    Still holding 30% in the G Fund...

    My normal default of "60% C / 20% S / 20% I" would have resulted in a gain of 1.07%.

    Instead I gained 0.74%

    The scary thing is that I don't see much in the way of positive or negative movement. In the end, me thinks there will be a little slump - especially when the NYT starts hollering that the Federal revenues sagged from May 2006 levels. They will simply forget that the IRS was a bit better at accounting for tax returns in April 2007 than April 2006. So, May 2007 will grow only 8+% over last year...

    Summer is going to be flat.

    2% - 4% downturns, 2% - 4% upswings

    I will use the G fund to Dollar Cost Average. Waiting for the downturn...


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  19. #10

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    Default Lame, but true: Rebalanced to 20% G / 40%C / 25% S / 15% I

    Yup,

    I started the hot quarterback yesterday...

    When I saw the market dropping in the morning I decided to follow my own advice and Dollar Cost Average on a small correction. As yesterday looked to be greater than a 1% decline - which would result in a 5% correction - I decided to move 10% of my holdings to the fund hardest hit.

    I moved from: 30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I
    to: 20% G / 0% F / 40% C / 25% S / 15% I

    That will result in a pretty penny today with the big boom

    And, no, I still cannot post my transactions. Don't have 25 posts...

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Post Builder

    Have
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% S
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    A Great
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% S
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

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