Thread: Boghies Account Talk

It's time for Santa to start making toys. I think inflationary gubmint spending will be restrained to the level of a drunken sailor in a brothel. That is a step in the right direction

Fund Allocation Banal Thoughts

• G 40% - It's now earning a little bit, so
• F 0% - I think I will take this ride after the FED is off it
• C 30% - Statists prefer big business so I am bumping this
• S 20% - Statists don't like small(ish) businesses, they cannot influence them
• I 10% - The EuroTrash look worse than we do. Is this a permanent allocation. Yowser

Sciencey Stuff:

• Expected Annual Return: 7.72%
• Expected Risk: 9.37%
• Best Year: 23.66%
• Worst Year: -19.78%
• Biggest Dump: -31.24%

It's Still Dumb Money Hour(s), but...

This is why I am never out of the market...

This market is churning without an actionable direction. It is not a good market timing market. Monday will likely see a drop.

The glee of only 7.7% inflation is completely stooooopid. The October 2021 inflation was 6.2% YoY. We were in the late stages of the beginning of the Helicopter Cash inflation mess. It got worse from there. So, we are looking at 13.9% inflation over the past two years. Yowser. Welcome back Kotter(Carter). But, on the good side we have to accept that maybe the FED is slowing the growth of inflation.

Personally, I would have SWAGed inflation in 2021 at around 4% - 5%. That would have been higher than normal, but understandable. However, we got to 9.1% (YoY) and that was caused by Gubmint Spending. Hopefully the FED can yank enough fiat money out of the system to bring inflation down another 5% - 6%. That will not be a wonderful experience, but like amputating a limb it might be necessary.

GLHF

Prepping for the Santa Rally

Fund Allocation Banal Thoughts

• G 35% - It's now earning a little bit, so. The funny thing is that my Edelman advisor actually recommended this
• F 0% - There is still a LOT of Gubmint Spendulous sloshing around. The FED has to pull it out of the market
• C 25% - Statist love Big Business
• S 25% - Gridlock loves Small Business
• I 15% - I'll blame my Financial Advisor if this craps out

Sciencey Stuff:

• Expected Annual Return (CAGR/IRR): 8.20%
• Expected Risk: 10.26%
• Best Year: 25.17%
• Worst Year: -22.13%
• Biggest Dump: -34.57%

My Financial Advisor at Edelman Financial Engines didn't want me swining in a 20% range. We agreed on a 10% swing range centered at 65%. Personally, I'm good with that right now. Mr. Market will probably just camp it here till the Statists are voted out and the FED gets inflation under control. I don't think even this administration can look at current interest rates and just barf out more Free Money. All in all, this is only a 0.50% change in IRR and a 1% change in risk, so whatever...

One hell of a Santa Clause rally we had there!!!

Go Team!!!

Originally Posted by Boghie

One hell of a Santa Clause rally we had there!!!

Go Team!!!

It looks like most of us got coal.

Maybe he's late?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Maybe he's late?

Must have had a flight on Southwest Airlines.

Not ready to dive into the AGG (F) yet, but there will be a point...

Because the FED has to yank trillions of inflationary 'Treasury Bucks' out of the system they will keep raising interest rates. Not good for those on fixed incomes, those invested in bonds, or the poor. Actually, not good for anyone that has to eat either. Not good for someone that wants/needs to buy/sell a house. Kinda crap for anyone I guess. But, we apparently wanted this. In sports this is called an 'unforced error'.

Anyway, since our 'F-Fund' is a 'fund' there is a weighted maturation and thus a wieghted yield. The maturation is around 6 years the last I checked, the current yield is 2.44% if I am reading it correctly. The current FED rate is 4.75%. The newest bonds in the AGG should be a point or so higher than the FED rate. Thus, as the older bonds wash out the yield on the average should increase - and, at a faster rate than the FED increases.

This could be a GREAT market timing event. When the FED rate stabilizes - and especially when it starts dropping - there will be 'Happy Times' for bond holders.

Why, oh why do we keep seeing HSBC Bank and Credit Suisse in the news anytime there is a bit of bond trouble. Just asking for a friend.

Maybe that friend, or friends of that friend, or even friends of friends of that friend should take a good hard look at things if they hold money in those 'banks'.

I'm not a bond investor, but somewhere down the line it will be wise to invest in bonds (F-Fund).

I think I might understand what an 'inverse yield curve' is now. I found an article mentioning that the yield on 2 year Treasuries is at a 16 year high. I think that is what I am looking for as a marker for investing in bonds. One thing of particular interest is the chart presented in that article:

TreasuryYields.JPG

My guess is that longer term treasuries should have a higher yield than short term treasuries. Anyway, once our F-Fund meets/exceeds the yield of the 10 year I think I will start putting money in the F.

Such a SWAG - but, I am not including the sciencey part

It doesn't appear as if the credit rating entities give one whit whether our politicians increase the Federal Gubmints credit limit or not...

We all knew in our heart of hearts that it really did not matter that Congress/President increased the credit limit. All that matters is math. Fitch doesn't appear to like the math. On our way to dead beat status.

Math might be taking precedence over politics. If it isn't now, it will soon.

And, you know what: Math is Fair and Equitable and Non-Racist and...

Ugh