This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market
This decline has been by drips and drabs with some promising bumps. If this was a normal market we would probably be bottoming out. For the first time since 2008, I don't think this is a normal market.
The F-Fund (AGG) is priced for an average yield of 3.4%, we are currently at 2.57%. If the final resulting average yield is 4% then the drawdown should stop at 14.8% and we are currently at a drawdown of 11.5%. So, another 3%. Bonds come down to math. Equities come down to feelz. Me not like the feelz. I don't want to participate in feelz based equity losses and I really don't see anything positive out there. Somehow, our gubmint and elites have managed the almost impossible: They have managed to initiate inflation while regulating the economy into recession. No bueno.
Current Allocation (as of COB Monday, May 2, 2022):
Fund |
Allocation |
Banal Thoughts |
G |
40% |
Ugh. Wimp move. Pathetic. But sometimes not losing is winning |
F |
30% |
The FED has to bump rates. This will decline, but it has already overcorrected for this level |
C |
10% |
Summer and let's see was good old regulation can do. Try it again, and again, and again |
S |
10% |
Socialism and Fascism prefer big business. Easier to influence |
I |
10% |
Maybe these guys are waking up, but the slumber has been so sweet! |
Expected Annual Return: 6.32%
Expected Risk: 4.97%
Best Year: 17.67%
Worst Year: -8.00%
Biggest Dump: -13.73%
I hate this allocation. Add current inflation and I am guaranteed to lose purchasing power. We needed a strong market to go with the inflation we are experiencing. For example, if we do not contract the money supply and we end up with 10% annual inflation, and we manage to turn this turd around, then my 6.32% growth will become a -3.68% real gain. Nice, very nice. However, add 10% inflation to an economic deuce in the making and my purchasing power could easily head south by 30% or more. Finally, who actually thinks things will improve anytime soon. Beuller, Beuller...
But, we took it to them!!! Bad EXXON. Bad Keystone Pipeliners. Bad Energy producers. Bad developers. Bad truckers. Bad foodies. Bad the rest of the economic movers and shakers - And, Bad, Bad, Bad Musk and his damn richness!!!.
Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
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