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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #1117

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Raleigh, NC
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    3,416

    Exclamation Is it Headin' South

    It is never a good thing when the 'G Fund' is in the Top 10 of the AutoTracker

    It is early yet, but this trend ain't your friend.


    Right now I'm Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #1118

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    This thang looks like it is turning over...

    The problem for investors is that bond funds also look rather crappy. Inflation is VERY bad for bond holders. Our 'F Fund' has corrected 5.5% over the past year. Normally that would mean that it would be a nice safe haven. But, look at the activity volume - if I am reading the chart correctly. Yowser. With inflation looming bonds may not be the fallback for market timers. Bond FUNDS are worse than holding bonds in this environment because they are actively priced to market - and, there is internal buying and selling at all times.

    Cash (G) might be the only place to be.

    As RangerRay stated, I am not at my pain point so I will hold my allocation. I will probably eat 5% - 7% in this allocation before I make a move. You have to give the market some wiggle room or you will always be out when the market turns hot. This is especially true when you are dealing with a 2 IFT limit. If I do move to safety I will dramatically over-allocate to the G Fund. Don't like it, but...
    ZZZ
    Everyone today is looking up at the G Including me. I feel like this is due to the borrowing to keep the US thriving during COVID-19? Tougher times may be coming?

  4.  
  5. #1119

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    3,416

    Exclamation Feels Like a Southernly Storm

    Congressional deadlock is great, they feed me chocolate cake. But, I am starting to feel like yakking politicians really don't matter. Stagflation is not good:

    • G: 25% << Hold money here and wait for a growth period
    • F: 30% << Normally a holding tank for an equity investor, but with inflation this thing is a turd
    • C: 25% << The S&P 500 will trail the Small Caps in a downturn market. It has been a good place to be.
    • S: 10% << Now it is going down. Not a good place to be. This will lead in a downturn market
    • I: 10% << Lackluster. The politicians have been rolling in the slime here for generations. Unless you like 5 year plans this ain't the place to be.
    • Expected Annual Return: 7.73%
    • Expected Risk: 6.96%
    • Best Year: 21.12%
    • Worst Year: -13.80%
    • Biggest Dump: -22.89%


    I like that there have been few if any Congressionally approved tax code and regulation changes. However, the Executive can start executing with Executing Orders or whatever they are called. That will be a mess. With the Santa 'rally' largely behind us I don't want to be in the crosshairs of yelling incompetence.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  6.  
  7. #1120

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    Upstate NY
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    Default Re: Feels Like a Southernly Storm

    Thought you'd have more in G than F based on your previous comments about F fund. I always maintain a partial allocation to G, nothing wrong with that.

  8.  
  9. #1121

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    Default Re: Feels Like a Southernly Storm

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Thought you'd have more in G than F based on your previous comments about F fund. I always maintain a partial allocation to G, nothing wrong with that.
    I've spent my working life watching equities and only really using the bond fund to smooth things out and as a resting spot. Most of my investment experience has occurred from 1996 on, so most of it has been in the 9/11 era onward - which is a weird spot for bond investing.

    Anyway, the 'F Fund' has declined by 5.5% from it's recent(ish) high so I think it is safe(ish). That should take care of a point of FED hikes. The problem is that this is a weird economic environment that I have never seen. I don't know how to invest in stagflation, but I do know that earning a return less than inflation is a 'no bueno' move. The Treasury is taking advantage of folks sitting in the G Fund. Inflation is 7%, but the G Fund is earning <2% so folks in the G Fund lost 5%+ last year without even knowing it. So, F it is.

    However, sometimes not losing is gaining.

    Tough times ahead.

    Anyone out there with investment experience in the 'Jimma'' years?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #1122

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    Default Feels Like a Southernly Storm

    The confidence displayed by Mr. Market is quite stunning!!!

    I firmly believe that
    • a softer, more caring foreign policy
    • a little bit more government largess
    • a lot more taxes on the rich and famous
    • and, a smattering of additional regulation

    will solve the pressing issues of the day. This downturn is so unexpected.

    I'm just happy I showed my confidence early(ish). I will likely show my increased confidence if I can suss out a dead cat bounce. At least my allocation is 'self-correcting'
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  12.  
  13. #1123

    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
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    5,260

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    "dead cat bounce"
    Is that before or after the Fed Meeting

    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

  14.  
  15. #1124

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    "dead cat bounce"
    Is that before or after the Fed Meeting

    Personally, I'm not too worried about the FED meeting. If they are doing their job they will start raising the prime rate. We are no longer faced with deflation...

    This cat could be so dead I might have to show my confidence in it by kicking it into the weeds and waiting for a revival. We are at, or close to, a -25% return on the S-Fund from it's high. The S-Fund will lead the C-Fund and the I-Fund will totter along. The F-Fund is at > 5% correction and should be safe, but I'm thinking it will turn over as well. My current allocation is actually less aggressive than my conservative allocation. My next move will be a 2008 move.

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #1125

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    "dead cat bounce"
    Is that before or after the Fed Meeting

    WorkFE, welcome back.
    May the force be with us.


  18.  
  19. #1126

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    Exclamation Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Yesterday looked like a 'dead cat bounce',
    but I like my dead cats to bounce a few times
    before I start adding risk to my moola and investments



    What I mean is that yesterday could have been 'lock step' and/or automated buyers that targeted a -10% correction. Same with the small caps (-20%). The -%'s were just too close to trigger numbers.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #1127

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Boghie, What is your 2008 move?
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  23. #1128

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Boghie, What is your 2008 move?
    I spent a LOT of time 50% - 60% out of the market (G/F) between November 2007 and April 2009. A LOT of time. Time well spent.

    I was 14 years younger back then. I could take more risk. My guess is a 2008 style retreat and retrenchment would be about 60% - 70% out of the market. The ugly of uglies is that the F Fund is not really safe now. It may have 'corrected' already, but it seems to be flopping over in concert with C/S/I. That is weird. Normally, investors and speculators will park their money in bonds during a correction. Nowadays with the prime rate ready to be bumped they are moving their money elsewhere. Where, you ask? I not know. Cash sucks too (G). Guaranteed loss to inflation.

    What a mess.

    I DO NOT LIKE the late market frown. Don't like it at all.

    Let's Go Brandon!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  24.  
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