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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #1105

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    Default Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Not the 'G Fund' my friend, not the 'G Fund'.
    • G: 15%
    • F: 50%
    • C: 16%
    • S: 12%
    • I: 7%


    CAGR: 7.46%
    Risk: 5.86%
    Best Year: 20.63%
    Worst Year: -9.66
    Max Drawdown: -17.10

    I am inspired and feel a type of confidence in the direction of both the market and Federal finances I have not felt recently. President Biden's speech inspired this move. Party like it's 2007

    NOTE: I don't think that the 'F Fund' holds much in the way of Federal Treasuries and Bonds. The 'G Fund' is being borrowed against because going $3+ Trillion in debt is good to go. I am confident that the Feds will pay me my 1.5% in interest. I do believe that bonds (F) is/was in a slow correction, but a dump of 3% - 5% in F which has little dependence on my confidence in our Federal Executive leadership and our Congressional Budget/Allocation leadership seems worth!!!
    Boy, was I wrong about the 'F Fund'. I absolutely knew there were significant Federal Debt instruments in it - but when I last looked at it I didn't see any. I don't know what I was looking at. I allowed myself to convince myself - what a dummy. Ugh, there is a ton of Federal debt in it. I guess we cannot hide from the full trust and faith of the gubmint. C/S/I are the only faithless funds, and C/S are overvalued with I moribund for years.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #1106

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    Default Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

    There are two ways to win in TSP:
    1. To be invested in a Bull Market
    2. and, to not be invested in a Bear Market


    Option (1) is by far the most lucrative and certain. If you think about it there are thousands of smart, hard working folks (and, some are both) running listed companies in the Developed World. Almost all of them want their companies to succeed - even excluding the desire to make their shareholders happy. Even more importantly - in some ways - their are literally billions of folks who provide the day to day labor and knowhow that want to succeed - and, for them to succeed requires their employer to succeed. Now, I know there are outliers but in the norm the above comment is accurate. To demonstrate that accuracy just note that equities grow about 10% per year and profits grow similarly.

    Option (2) is necessary when something interferes with the execution of Option (1) or when the proxy to our economies (equities) gets out of whack with those economies. When the issue is some temporary interference that one can look past than it is best just to ride it out. You want to be in on the snap-back. A nasty example of that is the COVID issues. When the issue is a bubble in equities where equities have advanced beyond the actual economy than it is best to get out when the froth is somewhat obvious and time your way back in. You don't have to be perfect, just decent. A nasty example of that is the 2008 mess.

    The question we must look at now is are we stuck in Option (2) and, if so, can we count on a short correction or are we in for a long cycle failure?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #1107

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    Default Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

    Folks, your charts are going to be crap...
    DO NOT count on technicals in a time like this...

    Hunker down.
    Just my
    0.02
    Last edited by Boghie; 08-26-2021 at 11:35 AM.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  6.  
  7. #1108

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    Thumbs up Beatin' the Street

    I ain't going to beat the traders, but...

    I wonder how many barrels of oil I can store in my backyard? That would be both an investment and an inflation hedge!!!

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #1109

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    Default Re: Beatin' the Street

    I noticed something weird when doing some research for some threads...

    It appears that the fund prices for 2003/01/01 are normalized at around $10. I think they are normalized at a $10 G-Fund. That is weird. I don't have data before 2003 - even if I want to go through the bother of grabbing it from the surviving disk of the Great Computer Crash of 2019. I mean, what are the odds of every fund camping a few cents off of the $10 mark and the G-Fund sitting at precisely $10.

    I would prefer real numbers. Maybe those were real. Weird.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #1110

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    Default Re: Beatin' the Street

    They didn't have share prices before 6/1/2003, I just know that they closed everything at the end of May and changed over to shares. I am not sure if they had S & I funds prior to that time or if that was when those funds were added. All shares were set at $10

  12.  
  13. #1111

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    FYI-fund start dates
    G-4/1/87
    F-1/29/88
    C-1/29/88
    S-5/1/2001
    I-5/1/2001
    L-8/1/2005 and various dates as year funds were created

    $10 was just a number they picked.

    PO

  14.  
  15. #1112

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    Default Time In the Market

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #1113

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    Default Re: Time In the Market

    The best market timer vs those who spend time in the market:



    I'm not a buy and holder. I will flex my assets around. Has it helped. Maybe. But, camping in cash for long(ish) lengths of time hinder your time in the market - which is no bueno...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  18.  
  19. #1114

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    Smile Re: Time In the Market

    Congressional deadlock is great, they feed me chocolate cake!!! :

    Politicians discussing a tax 'reform' that increases investment taxes is not a good time to be invested:

    • G: 5% << Give the Treasury a little less to 'borrow' from
    • F: 40% << Not buying any with contributions, but holding too much here and will move later this month
    • C: 25% << S&P500 has been sideways through the summer, overweighting
    • S: 15% << Has been going up. Why?
    • I: 15% << Has been sideways for quite some time. US market will likely churn as we over-regulate
    • Expected Annual Return: Probably in the 8.33% range
    • Expected Risk: Probably in the 8.59% range


    The summer doldrums are in the past. This is normally a nice time to invest. Migrating from a conservative to a moderate allocation for my age/circumstances.

    Please politicians, don't 'give' me any freebies!!! Just relax in your easy chairs.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #1115

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    Default Re: Time In the Market

    So, the S Fund (the US Equity 'Completion' Fund' is now flat YoY.
    The EuroTrash/Japan fund (I Fund) is flat since March
    The F Fund (AGG) is in correction...

    The only savior is the S&P 500 C Fund. It has had a nice run YoY, but why...

    This does not look good. How 'un'-good is it. Only time will tell. You really want the S-Fund to lead the way and it ain't doing that.

    I wouldn't be 'all-in' because if the S&P 500 turns over everything (excepting maybe bonds) will turn over with it. I wouldn't be 'all-out' because it appears the politicians cannot really muck with the tax system right now. They can, and are, mucking with the regulatory system and that can damage things, but that is what we asked for. Personally, I left money on the table during the terms of President Obama because I let politics get in the way of my financial brain. Had I not, I would be commenting as a recently retired coupon clipper in his Winnebago. Maybe. Still kinda young for that lifestyle and I didn't really like the motorhome thing as a kid.

    So, a middling allocation that buffers my losses and lets me make a bit if we restart the good times. Let the market decide and don't take a 10%+ loss. I will go further into safety if I hit a -7% from my personal high...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #1116

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    Default Re: Time In the Market

    This thang looks like it is turning over...

    The problem for investors is that bond funds also look rather crappy. Inflation is VERY bad for bond holders. Our 'F Fund' has corrected 5.5% over the past year. Normally that would mean that it would be a nice safe haven. But, look at the activity volume - if I am reading the chart correctly. Yowser. With inflation looming bonds may not be the fallback for market timers. Bond FUNDS are worse than holding bonds in this environment because they are actively priced to market - and, there is internal buying and selling at all times.

    Cash (G) might be the only place to be.

    As RangerRay stated, I am not at my pain point so I will hold my allocation. I will probably eat 5% - 7% in this allocation before I make a move. You have to give the market some wiggle room or you will always be out when the market turns hot. This is especially true when you are dealing with a 2 IFT limit. If I do move to safety I will dramatically over-allocate to the G Fund. Don't like it, but...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  24.  
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