Thread: Boghies Account Talk

Originally Posted by Boghie

This is dumb, but readying myself for a 50/15/20/10/5 allocation. Only 35% in if I pull the trigger.

I am hoping to see a sign of smart money flowing into equities before 1100 EST. Money is flowing out of both equites and bonds - as well as gold and silver - so it kinda has to be going to cash.

I hate allocations like that. I hate locking in losses. But, if smart money is in a panic I will not fight it.

Flat lined, but kinda moving up. AGG is moving higher.

Hate having IFTs take hold COB and having to trade them by 1200 EST. That fact always leaves on in the dark for many hours during a panic. But, the leveling off seems to indicate a bottom - or, at least not a free fall...

Well, gotta look on the bright side.

As of now the market (as proxied by the S&P500) is down about 25% and I am likely down 15% - so, that is a gain of 10%

Cannot make the IFT. As of now the thing seems to have flatlined from the dump. This is dumb, very dumb...

I'm feeling sick - and, it ain't even anything as exciting as the Corona Virus

Time for a Corona beer and a paper bag for my head.

Yowser…

Who/What can move the S&P500 like THAT. I mean, +130 points in a few minutes. That is a very big boy.

U.S. stocks recovered some of their steep losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Yowser…

Who/What can move the S&P500 like THAT. I mean, +130 points in a few minutes. That is a very big boy.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

U.S. stocks recovered some of their steep losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off.

I think that was not a bunch of individuals - it was likely a few very large managed funds and actively managed hedge funds. Maybe large managed retirement pension accounts. Maybe a programmed by-in at -25% from the highs. Hopefully, it is the result of actual human thought and greed vice some dumb Quant Program - but, I'll take what I get...

No impact, no idea:

Allocation is way too conservative for me. And, it got more so as the days passed by. This might be a bit early, but so far I haven't locked in losses if I get back to a normal allocation. In fact, I might come out ahead if this thing is not the Black Death:

• G: 25%
• F: 15%
• C: 28%
• S: 22%
• I: 10%

Should be an 8% average return with an 8% risk variance.

The market is recovering. The economy will recover. The end is not near.

Can't be sitting in 20% Cash and 20% Bonds. So, moving a meaningful amount out and into equities:

• G: 15%
• F: 15%
• C: 32%
• S: 25%
• I: 12%

Overweighting G and S, Underweighting F and S

Expected Annual Return: 8%
Expected Risk: 9%

Hi Boghie
How did you come up with the expected return and risk? I was thinking of going in L2030 but never liked the weight of the I fund.




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Good Lord, I am sorry about the horridly late response.

Sometimes I just don't want to look at my account. I don't want to be tempted to muck around with a well thought out allocation because of 1 point swings. Hibernating through April and May probably kept me sane and earned me significant mullah. In fact, I am basically even YtoD. Still a bit down because I am too bored to figure out my contributions, but very close none the less. When the market fully recovers I will be decently ahead of where I would have been had I sat around with my 2019/12/31 allocation.

Anyway, to answer your question, I use two sources:

• Quicken - The Investing Allocations Tab
• and 'Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation'

I am kinda preferring the PortfolioVisualizer site to Quicken. It will generate more stats and metrics for a quirky quant like me. Kinda enjoy it. On the other hand, the Quicken numbers include a longer range of data points - so, there is that.

Dang you TSPTalk...

You really have to have the 'TSP AutoTracker' tool. Now, I can't live in ignorant bliss. I am STILL -1.33% for the year. What am I to do!!!

I guess the choices are:

• Panic
• Riot
• 

+ 1, that’s exactly where I am!!



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