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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #1033

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: Doom - The Corona Virus is SO Scary. Gotta get into the market before it collapse

    Certainly want to buy on sale...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  3. #1034

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Doom - The Corona Virus is SO Scary. Gotta get into the market before it collapse

    I really am not market timing this thing to much of an extent. BTW, currently we are at a -5% from the high on the S&P500. I am hoping for a 7% change - which is my normal marker. So, lets pray for another 2% of panic

    My old allocation of 18%/19%/29%/24%/10% has behaved (since 1972) as follows:
    • CAGR: 8.24%
    • Risk: 9.72%
    • Best Year: 24.50%
    • Worst Year: -22.28%
    • Max Drawdown: -34.49%


    Current Allocation of 4%/21%/32%/29%/14% is:
    • CAGR: 8.94%
    • Risk: 11.55%
    • Best Year: 28.64%
    • Worst Year: -26.96%
    • Max Drawdown: -40.68%


    S&P500 Allocation of 0%/0%/100%/0%/0% is:
    • CAGR: 10.44%
    • Risk: 14.74%
    • Best Year: 37.45%
    • Worst Year: -37.02%
    • Max Drawdown: -50.97%


    I am using the on-line Portfolio Visualizer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...nalysisResults

    The allocation I am moving to is a Super Science Ric Edelman mapping. He uses many more individual types of assets in his portfolios - I just did an approximation mapping to TSP.

    So, in reality my change wasn't much of a change. The only thing I have to watch for is a 2008 style max drawdown. With the flu being the reason for the recent crushing collapse I think I will have time to bail to safety. I have just been waiting for a drawdown to get more fully invested.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #1035

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Doom - The Value of Science!!!

    Got in a bit early, eh

    As of last night the S&P500 was down about 9% from the high and I was down about 5.33%. That is the value of allocation. Moving 10% from safety (G) to risk (C/S/I) COB on Monday 'was not a good move'. It did increase the losses on Tuesday, Wednesday, and likely today more than my earlier allocation. But, the F Fund is currently buffering those losses to some extent - as it did with the earlier allocation.

    Now, where science comes in is that either allocation cut my losses by about 40% - which allows me to wait out potential further losses. My normal -7% mark may hit today or we may rebound - but, I did not feel the need to move out of equities during a situation that I feel is media hyped. If it is not hyped than my life does not end if my holdings decline -7% to -10%. I can move to safety sometime in that range. If, however, the world does not end I will be invested for a better rebound. It is not all or nothing. This does not feel like 2008 or 2009. This seems normal. And, this may be the washout that gets the weak kneed their guaranteed losses and paves the way for rare(ish) summer gains.

    This Lion likes to eat more than he likes to rest. And, to eat one must be active. You have to be in to win...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  7. #1036

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Thumbs down Doom - Smug Cloud may Impair Vision

    Ugh...

    Will wait till closer to IFT time limit, but it looks like I may have to cut bait and go to my conservative allocation.

    That allocation is:
    • G: 4%
    • F: 46%
    • C: 26%
    • S: 16%
    • I: 8%


    I may change it to:
    • G: 30%
    • F: 20%
    • C: 26%
    • S: 16%
    • I: 8%


    because money has been flowing into AGG (F Fund) during this panic. I would rather not be affected by market (whether equity or bond) swings on the rebound.

    Sometimes you just have to accept that you are wrong and move on. My account is now down 8.16% from the top market close and things seem to be heading down from here. The 'trend is your friend' - even if it isn't very friendly. The 50% holdings in equities will mean more risk than pure Lilly Pad holdings, but it will also give me some of the rebound. I still see this thing as a Dumb Money Move. Ugh.

    However, not making the IFT yet. Just stream of thought and manic depression
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #1037

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Doom - Smug Cloud may Impair Vision

    Weird that gold is declining rapidly.

    That is usually a safe haven for folks when they drop their sticky pants...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #1038

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Angry Doom - Smug Cloud may Impair Vision, Sticky Pants Dropped

    Ugh,

    Not going to participate fully in the churn. And, don't want to burn a March IFT dropping my Sticky Pants in public:

    • G: 30%
    • F: 20%
    • C: 26%
    • S: 16%
    • I: 8%


    IRR/CAGR: 7.41%
    Risk: 7.75

    This allocation should let me sleep ok and give me decent upside for the early recovery. That 'G Fund' holding is ready for a Market Smile in March...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  12.  
  13. #1039

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: Doom - Smug Cloud may Impair Vision, Sticky Pants Dropped

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Ugh,

    Not going to participate fully in the churn. And, don't want to burn a March IFT dropping my Sticky Pants in public:
    ...
    I'm bleeding so bad that my sticky pants stop sticking and I stopped wasting money on depends. I've been going through a case a day.
    May the force be with us.

  14.  
  15. #1040

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: Doom - Smug Cloud may Impair Vision, Sticky Pants Dropped

    My sticky pants are starting to get ripe...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  17. #1041

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Good Lord: I Hate Sitting in THIS Allocation

    Looking at Drudge, CNN, Fox News, etc...

    Come on people - it is a bad flu.

    It is not the plague. It is not an extraterrestrial disease. It is not the Andromeda Strain. It is not The Stand.

    Here is some 1st World Dudette with the Coronavirus Flu...

    Come on people...

    I hate that I have to sit in an allocation that normally generates a 6% or 7% Return (only 4% over inflation).
    That 2% differential from my normal allocation means that my Winnebego driver will ALSO have to captain my small yacht

    Good Lord
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  18.  
  19. #1042

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Good Lord: I Hate Sitting in THIS Allocation

    Just snoozing along.
    Not a care in the world.
    No big ups, no big downs.

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #1043

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Red face I'm Up, They See Me, I'm Down...

    Give a point, get a point, and give it up again.

    But, I guess it is better than giving four points, getting five points, and giving it all up again.

    My current allocation is quite the snoozer.
    Any more boring and I'll be a boozer.
    Bad pyramid haiku
    Is only haiku

    My haiku is not even real haiku - but I am ignorant of that. My haiku, best haiku
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #1044

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Lightbulb Recommended Information Source: The Belmont Club

    To all,

    I have posted individual links from Richard Fernandez of The Belmont Club, but I strongly recommend just putting the main thread in your Favorites:

    https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/

    When you find someone that always seems correct in his analysis it is a very good idea to take a gander through the posts every once in a while. He is covering this Corona Virus thang from different angles that are of interest. He is logical - but, not flippant like me... And, he is SMART and well informed. Medical stuff is not his forte (necessarily), but if he writes something than bet on it.

    And, that DIFFERS from the dummies in the media who do not know and do not study the topics on which they write. Ever deal with the media first hand? If you have you understand that sentence.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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