Thread: Boghies Account Talk

Who could have seen this coming 'Mysterious rise in US Treasury yields perturbs markets', AFP.

Too damn funny. Unforeseen. Unexpected. WAT

Yet, they are guessing the following:

• Government Spending - that is Federal Fiscal 'Situation'
• Fewer Central Bank Federal Debt Buyers
• Fewer Domestic Bond Buyers
• FED Tightening

Unexpected.

Time to ramp up more gubmint stimulus. Maybe.

The niceness of this years markets have jiggered my Allocation enough to warrant notification. This is the current reality:

Fund Allocation:

• G 31% - It is earning 5%, which is an OK return in a 3.2% inflation environment.
• F 0% - Just read a word salad AI robot article. But, one fact stood out: Market makers are covering for reduced demand for US Bonds. Not good.
• C 27% - Statist love Big Business
• S 26% - Gridlock loves Small Business. Glorious.
• I 16% - I'll blame my Financial Advisor if this craps out, but it hasn't - so, the Sun God Lion favors him

The AI word salad report also mentions that when the market makers stop their above normal buying of US bonds the FED will pick up the slack. The Treasury apparently needs to sell something like $10 Trillion in new bonds/treasuries to recycle old debt and to cover the expected 2024 splurge. Do I think the FED will buy if the market does not? Uh, nope. Expect higher interest rates. They ain't going to buy this crap to support gubmint spending. They don't have to. However, if one can time this 'Epic Fail' by our imbecilic betters - who are voted in because we voters are rather dumb too - will make loads of easy and safe money. However, if you buy now you will have your lunch money taken. 2022 and 2023 have been horrid for the F Fund, expect the same for 2024 if these morons we have voted into office continue to believe that if they increase the debt limit anyone will care.

Folks, some of you are waiting for these high interest rates to decline. They shouldn't and they likely won't. They are normal interest rates - if not still too low.

Anyway, Joshua Kennon wrote a nice article on this: 'Thoughts on the United States Returning to a Normalized Interest Rate Environment, the Housing Market, and Related Topics', Joshua Kennon

It is well worth the read.

BTW, I actually found this chap when searching for quality shirts. I had purchased what I thought was quality stuff from a department store that had lasted about nine months. A normal work shirt (dress shirt) would last me about eighteen months or a bit less. I was not happy. His article 'Dress Shirts for Men 101' was a godsend. The links to various levels of shirts (some of which are broken, but you can find the new ones) of quality was priceless. His discussion on that topic is something I go back to often. Again, well worth the read. My Charles Tyrwhitt shirts last no less than five years and they are not expensive.

This chap is a wealth manager. He is very conservative. Take that for what it is worth.

So true about the interest rates. Unfortunately, rates were so low, for so/too long, that people got used to/expected them to continue. That is one of the reasons for the inflation we have/had. Fortunately, there are adults now in the room that are handling things properly.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Folks, some of you are waiting for these high interest rates to decline. They shouldn't and they likely won't. They are normal interest rates - if not still too low.

Not feeling it and made a good return so far - being an old guy who is no longer playing the game like a sweaty try harder

Fund Allocation:

• G 50% - I'll just call it 'Going away in May' and call it a day.
• F 0% - This fund of bonds still sucks. It just ain't behaving right. All those low return bonds gotta get washed out before I invest in this.
• C 25% - Statist love Big Business
• S 15% - Gridlock loves Small Business. Glorious.
• I 10% - The Developmental Window Lickers lumped in here seem to have some legs. However, they all get smileys.

Metrics (from 'Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation'):

• Expected Return (CAGR/IRR): 7.52%
• Expected Risk: 7.82%
• Meaning that 67% of the time the annual return will fall between -0.30% and +15.34%
• Best Year: +21%
• Worst Year: -16%
• Worst Drawdown: -25%

I don't know what the rest of the year will do, but I do know that I don't want to participate in the chop.

Hey Boghie,

I entered your IFT. See your private messages regarding autotracker login.

Good luck!