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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #1057

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Dang you TSPTalk...

    You really have to have the 'TSP AutoTracker' tool. Now, I can't live in ignorant bliss. I am STILL -1.33% for the year. What am I to do!!!

    I guess the choices are:
    • Panic
    • Riot
    I like your number better than mine 7.36
    May the force be with us.

  2.  
  3. #1058

    Join Date
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    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Who said it would be easy?Bull-puffs.gif
    04/15/2021
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$63.46 a Barrel, Daily Status +$.31

  4.  
  5. #1059

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Exactly!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-19-21=G85%-i15%/ 4-9-21=60C, 30I-10G/ www.theepochtimes.com

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  7. #1060

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    ToddB .. Love the elephant meme... I feel like that guy... every time I think I am making my way.. I get smacked down!
    Quote Originally Posted by ToddB View Post
    + 1, that’s exactly where I am!!



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-19-21=G85%-i15%/ 4-9-21=60C, 30I-10G/ www.theepochtimes.com

  8.  
  9. #1061

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    Red face Re: Boghies Account Talk

    The 'market' has been a powerful wealth earning machine...

    Without any IFTs my allocation is as follows:

    • G: 12%
    • F: 12%
    • C: 34%
    • S: 30%
    • I: 12%


    Expected Annual Return: 9%
    Expected Risk: 11%

    My brain is thinking: "Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered." I might move to a normal allocation soon. However, the trend is your friend. A market moving like this means I can retire sooner or buffer future downturns better. To retire decently all I need is an average return of 5.5% over the next eight years. But, the other half of my brain has two thoughts: 1) Grab what you can while the market is good - who knows what will happen three years from now, and 2) a decent retirement does not include an oceanic boat captain or a Winnebago driver.

    What am I to do?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #1062

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Nearly identical to my allocation across all accounts. Excluding taxable accounts it's 70/30.

    An expected annual return of 9% is very good and would nearly double your assumptions. It seems there are so many out there now saying to get rid of bonds in the portfolio. I've even heard Jeremy Siegel say it, but he's always had unrealistically long time frames of 30+ years. He now recommends a 20% allocation to bonds with yields so low, but doesn't take many factors into account, age being one.

    Barry Ritholtz said recently he has moved his clients from a 60/40 to a new 70/30 due to such low bond yields. Both are engaging in a sort of market timing in the bond market which people have been trying to call a top for at least a decade.

    What happens if bonds just go sideways or trade in a range for the next 10, 20, 30 years?


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  13. #1063

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    Wink Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.

    I figured out how to normalize my returns - the market will do so. The market does as the market wills.

    The only way to have missed today's doozy would have been to make the trade by noon EST yesterday. That was not likely to happen today
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  15. #1064

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    Thumbs down Talking About Social Security!!!

    Not for me though...

    I ran across this Motley Fools article: 'Trump's Payroll Tax Holiday Reveals a Hard Truth About Social Security', The Motley Fool, Dan Caplinger

    I was expecting some whining about how the Trumpster destroyed the Social Security Lock Box. However, it was not about that. It end with some bleating about voting and/or contacting this or that failed lawyer who happens to be a current politician, but the rest of the article is quite informative. Namely, these two bits:

    From a different perspective, however, the payroll tax move doesn't really change anything. The hard truth is that there's never been any guarantee that anyone will receive future Social Security benefits. Despite the thousands of dollars in payroll taxes most American workers pay into the system every year, there's no vested property right in Social Security benefits. All it would take is getting a bill through Congress and a stroke of the pen in the White House, and Social Security would be history.
    As the gamer kiddies say 'Wat!!!' - while presenting their shocked face -

    How can that be, well apparently the Warren court (Supreme Court) in 1960 weighed in as follows:

    The Supreme Court weighed in on this issue way back in the 1960s. Under a revision to the Social Security Act, one person had his Social Security benefits taken away from him because he had been deported for being a member of the Communist Party. The Supreme Court dismissed the argument that recipients had a vested property right in Social Security benefits, instead affirming Congressional authority to take away current and future benefits.
    More shocked faces -

    Now, how about reviewing the meager change to Social Security offered during the 2004 Presidential race. Namely, that 1/4 of your Social Security tax (I use that term directly) could be invested in TSP. Well, for me those numbers would look like this had I invested that 1/4 of my SS withholdings in the C Fund:

    • Starting Year: 2004
    • Starting Balance: 0
    • Starting Annual Additions: $1,820
    • Average Annual Return: 10.48%, Yup, that includes the 2008/9 crash
    • Average Annual Inflation: 2.32%


    Inflation adjust the additions

    That true Lock Box (Because it would NOT be controlled by politicians) would have a balance of $88,456

    At age 65 (for me) that part of Social Security would augment my retirement income by $12,198/year, or $1,016/month.

    But, as the gamer kids say - We 'Noped' it. Other politicians scared us. And now we have the promise of past politicians being funded by current politicians.

    GLHF
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #1065

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    Exclamation Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

    October
    Election Year
    Serious Conflict

    Yup, with all sides yammering about not respecting the outcome of an election
    and, sitting in the middle of a 4th Turning
    and, with my previous market timing actually being pretty good
    and, regretting that I did not act on those internal feelz on the day I got those feelz
    and finally, with a 10%+ current YTD return I am happy to camp October in relative safety

    Current Allocation:
    • G: 50% - This is as safe as I can get, but the Feds can 'borrow' from it - Ugh
    • F: 10% - I don't know if I should have anything in bonds
    • C: 20% - Gotta have some opportunity for growth. Get something if I'm wrong
    • S: 13% - Gotta have some opportunity for growth. Get something if I'm wrong
    • I: 7% - The EuroTrash has been trash. They are even messier that we are, but I could be wrong

    Expected Annual Return: 6%
    Expected Risk: 5%

    I don't think anyone around here marks me as someone to follow around like a lost puppy, but if there is one "Don't Follow This". It is based purely on Feelz and the fact that I am well over what is needed at this point in my life to retire fairly well off. I don't have accept as much risk as a person with a more average retirement asset base. All I need is a 4% annual return to be decently well off in my golden years. Got 10%+ this YTD, got the feelz, and don't need anything out of this year's market. Time to vamamous.

    Plus, October can be a VERY sucky month. If things go smoothly I can jump back into a risk allocation in time for Fat Santa

    Happy Hunting.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  19. #1066

    Default Re: Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

    Great points Boghie! Your definitely the man with a solid plan! Congrats on your earnings....continued Best wishes!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-19-21=G85%-i15%/ 4-9-21=60C, 30I-10G/ www.theepochtimes.com

  20.  
  21. #1067

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    Default Re: Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    the fact that I am well over what is needed at this point in my life to retire fairly well off.
    That's it. You won.

  22.  
  23. #1068

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    Default Re: Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

    Well, I believe we have a new President in 'Merica!!! Congratulations Mr. Biden.

    Likely, the very first thing he will have to do is reinstate the Social Security tax. He has been selling Social Security as the greatest thing since sliced bread for fifty years. He has been 'investing' the contributions with wisdom and skill for for that same fifty years. Any new investment ideas or other reforms were just attempts to starve the grandparents. Social Security is safe and in a lock box. It should be easy to sell a 30 year old on the value of Social Security. You will have to sell them on it - I think they will notice a take home pay cut of $200+ every month. Just guessing. Everybody believes that the politicians have 'invested' the Social Security tax well and that they will get a great benefit in 30 years.

    Should be an easy sell.

    Good Luck
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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