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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #13

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Day
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% G
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

  2.  
  3. #14

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    Post Re: Lame, but true: Rebalanced to 20% G / 40%C / 25% S / 15% I

    Hi Boghie!

    I see you are doing somewhat of a "Averaging Down" allocation. I don't generally intervene on the MB unless somewhat necessary. Averaging down is one of the Ten (or More) Huge Trading Mistakes. With certain considerations it can be done, with risks, but you have to know what you are doing. So thats my caution! Good luck with your adventure!..........Spaf

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Yup,

    I started the hot quarterback yesterday...

    When I saw the market dropping in the morning I decided to follow my own advice and Dollar Cost Average on a small correction. As yesterday looked to be greater than a 1% decline - which would result in a 5% correction - I decided to move 10% of my holdings to the fund hardest hit.

    I moved from: 30% G / 0% F / 40% C / 15% S / 15% I
    to: 20% G / 0% F / 40% C / 25% S / 15% I

    That will result in a pretty penny today with the big boom

    And, no, I still cannot post my transactions. Don't have 25 posts...

  4.  
  5. #15

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    Default Spaf...

    Spaf, point taken...

    I am no expert - really just an average schlep...

    However, I do not fear this market this year - and I have a 21+ year time horizon. Normally, I am fully invested in a mix of C/S/I. It is rare that I invest in the G fund at all. Thus, my overall goal is to get completely back into the market for the long term.

    The holdings in the G fund are there because the summer oftentimes has little burps to the up and the down. Those can be played a little bit.

    I am much more concerned about next year - or perhaps the year after that. The market is going to have to adjust to the political environment. It will have to project the tax code and the regulatory atmosphere. My best SWAG is that next year will be very flat at best.

    So work the market a bit this year and sit on the sidelines next year.

  6.  
  7. #16

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Wink 2007/07/18 Account Balance Modification

    Yup,

    I was a bit rushed and didn't think the market would move around quite so much - so I neglected to inform my reader (myself - yuk, yuk) that I changed my TSP balances on 2007/07/18 to:

    G - 50%
    C - 30%
    S - 10%
    I - 10%

    Thus, for the first time in my life I timed the market pretty well. By accident. I was preparing to go on vacation and didn't feel the market was a good place to be and figured that I had made a good 6 month gain so I moved to safety where I could sleep well at the various Holiday Inns and street corners of D.C. NYC...

    Immediately after the move the market starts dumping.

    Nobody has to believe me, but I don’t have enough posts to get into the big-league game anyway. So enjoy…

    I will be looking at moving out of the G and into the S soon.

    Ciao Baby…

  8.  
  9. #17

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    Default 7.98% Growth ain't bad...

    Right now I am at a 7.98% growth for 2007.

    Not too bad, with the big boom season coming...

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  11. #18

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    Default Should Have gotten back in...

    But...

    Oil is up
    Summer is awaiting...
    And, there hasn't been a real correction yet...

    The market really bounced around today. I am very happy I am no longer in an automated futures and options system. You get clobbered when the market bounces. And, by the way, you really get clobbered by capital gains taxes on paper profits.


  12.  
  13. #19

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Capital gains only kick when you sell and declare your profits. I'm done on taking profits for this year, I think, and now am concentrating on reinvesting those gains in preparation for the continuation of the raging secular bull market. Capital gains and dividends are taxed at 15%. Now if it happens that this is actually the start of a cyclical bear market then I'll ride'er down and concentrate on dividend reinvestment. Either way, the time factor is most important. The longer it takes and the lower she goes the better the pricing. Snort.

  14.  
  15. #20

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    Default Too old for quick trade...

    After turning 43 this past week I now realize why I did not move from my 50% holding in the G Fund to more balance in the stock funds...

    Old and slow...

    But, it saved me gobs o' cash

    We are now nearing a normal market correction - ie. about 10%. I don't think anything the Fed does on Tuesday will be good for the market.
    If the Fed keeps the current rate than the weak loans cannot be refinanced.
    If the Fed drops the rate than investors will freak on what the Fed is seeing in that crystal ball of theirs. I mean, is there economic doom in the near future.

    Me thinks I am going to be boring and sit this squabble out. The summer is usually flat - but, with lots of sturm and drang.

  16.  
  17. #21

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    Default Almost Time for a Change!!!

    I'll never get to 25 posts:mad
    I'll take some cheese with that whine!!!

    But, soon it will be time to start moving back into the market. We saw a very quick 10% correction. Less than a day. Then, the Fed stepped in and did their job.

    However, there seems to be lots of churning in the water. No smooth up. No smooth down. And, I really hate to invest in the summer. In the end, it always seems flat. Just waiting for an October correction!!! Or, a November boom!!!

    This September I will move more of my G into C/S/I. I will wait for a dip which is certain to come. Maybe when the Fed tries to play it cheap this Thursday. I have to get as many months invested in the market as I can before Congress plays a negative role.

    So, for right now this is a bit of a wasted post. No change. I like my 8.57% growth with a 50% holding in the G.

    Just waiting.
    Water is churning..
    Yum, yum - chum in the water...

  18.  
  19. #22

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    The requirements to join the new Automated Tracker are ten (10) posts. You have already met this. Do you want me to create a User Profile for you Boghie? I need your email address to enter into your User profile for the Automated Tracker. This email should be one you visit frequently, and normally use when accessing TSPTalk.com. Send me you email by Private Message (PM). Then starting this Friday (8-31-2007), and thereafter, you access the Online Tracker by this URL: Automated Tracker

    The first time you access the login page you must request your temporary password by clicking Forgot Password. This is located below the Login window. You User ID is your normal TSPTalk member name (Boghie). Your temporary password will then be emailed to you using the address you provide. You can change your password once you have successfully logged in.



    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I'll never get to 25 posts:mad
    I'll take some cheese with that whine!!!

    But, soon it will be time to start moving back into the market. We saw a very quick 10% correction. Less than a day. Then, the Fed stepped in and did their job.

    However, there seems to be lots of churning in the water. No smooth up. No smooth down. And, I really hate to invest in the summer. In the end, it always seems flat. Just waiting for an October correction!!! Or, a November boom!!!

    This September I will move more of my G into C/S/I. I will wait for a dip which is certain to come. Maybe when the Fed tries to play it cheap this Thursday. I have to get as many months invested in the market as I can before Congress plays a negative role.

    So, for right now this is a bit of a wasted post. No change. I like my 8.57% growth with a 50% holding in the G.

    Just waiting.
    Water is churning..
    Yum, yum - chum in the water...

  20.  
  21. #23

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    Default Thoughts on a Question...

    Hi, Boghie,

    I joined recently after reading a lot on the message board. I am trying to find a thread written by someone responding to another's question or comment, who said that it was best to buy an IRA by borrowing out of the TSP. Was it you or do you remember reading about it? Thanks for your writings, I really enjoy them and learn a lot from them, please keep them coming!
    It definitely wasn't me that recommended such a strategy. In my very humble opinion (not a professional advisor or investor, but love the radio talk shows on the topic) here are the positives of such a strategy:

    1. You have a wider range of investments. You can invest in any stock, any mutual fund, any sector, or any investment model. It sure would have been nice to invest in REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts) from 2001 till 2006. We cannot do that in TSP. Sure would have been nice to invest a little in individual stocks - that is, gamble a bit. Cannot do that in TSP.
    2. You can invest in actual cash. Did you know that the Federal Government can 'borrow' from the 'G Fund' to cover expenses when they surpass their congressionally mandated total debt limit. Who cares? I do. Number 1: it is morally wrong for some lawyers in the Fed to nitpick the law to help with their credit crunch. They never solve the problem. What is a debt limit if you can borrow to pass right by it. Number 2: while I am confident the government will pay it back I am not certain. Number 3: I don't remember TSP telling me that in the prospectus.

    Here are the negatives:
    1. You have to pay back the money borrowed from TSP within 5 years or immediately upon leaving your job. Get RIFFD and get a huge and immediate balloon payment.
    2. Who wants to pay 5% in an attempt to make 10%. What if you lose 5% in a lousy market - like the one we are in. Now you lose 10%. That hurts. Let's say you gain 15% - which would place you near the top of the TSP mavens here. Your true gain would be 10% which is just the average 'C Fund' growth. It's like betting on a 9/7 longshot with a gimpy horse.


    Now, conversely, if you are retiring I like moving all, much, or some of the money to a self-directed IRA. Why annuitize it all and have no ability to beat the market. I much prefer the ‘Buckets of Money’ strategy promoted by Ray Lucia in his radio show. Basically, place 5 – 7 years of full draw downable expense money in money market and treasury accounts, the next bucket is for 5 – 7 year growth and will be used to replenish bucket one, the final is stocks and stock funds that should be held 10 years or longer that will be used to replenish all the buckets.

    Sorry about the long and late reply

  22.  
  23. #24

    Join Date
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    Default Still Holding Strong...

    Yuk, yuk...

    Still have that super investor fund mix of:

    50% in G
    30% in C
    10% in S
    10% in I

    I am, however, allocating:

    60% to C
    20% to S
    20% to I

    And guess what...

    Even though I am not investing into the G Fund it is growing as a percentage of my holdings - that is, it is now about 52% of my holdings.

    That tells you that sometimes it pays to be a bit safe

    Me thinks, however, that I will readjust my holdings after the FedHead Yak to:

    30% in G
    40% in C
    15% in S
    15% in I
    Why?
    I still have a 30% holding in the closest thing to cash. That will allow me to invest if the market dumps. For example, right now if the worldwide stock market dumps another 10% I will lose only about 4.5% because of the holdings in the 'G Fund'. Even after rebalancing I will limit my risk to a 7% loss. And, that will be a total market correction of about 20% or so from the highs. That 30% will be my buy low sell high fund...

    My current TSP has gained 8.94% YTD.

    Another 10% in market losses will result in a very inexpensive stock market. The market gains will happen quickly and decisively. Where else is all that real estate money going to go?

  24.  
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