Thread: Boghies Account Talk

You talkin' about this page?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_toplist.php

Or this one?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

KevinD,

I often review the 'IFT of the Day' (second list in your comment) now. I had seen it before and something triggered in my two brain cells - but it didn't fire off long enough or hard enough. I think it is a great way to see how the chaps in this little club of ours are investing...

The 'Oceans' list (first list) is a great list. Some of the big boomers are 'getting theirs' via high risk trading. That is fine for them, but not for me. I kinda like allocations. So maybe a 'sentiment survey' of the 'Top Ten' could provide some data towards a profitable allocation.

Kinda figure you know all that. But, I like to hear myself type

The following are a (probably crude) quintile average of current YTD Returns and current allocations by Quintile.

HTML Code:

Quint   YTD	Daily	MTD	YTD	G	F	C	S	I
	Returns	Returns	# IFT	# IFT					
All	1.48%	1.35%	0.23	4.77	47.59	10.97	13.49	12.15	14.81
1	8.06%	1.87%	0.22	4.50	32.63	7.50	23.66	24.16	12.06
2	4.18%	2.51%	0.06	2.56	18.91	6.56	24.81	9.13	40.56
3	1.96%	0.57%	0.16	3.50	73.75	4.81	9.97	7.03	4.25
4	-0.21%	0.77%	0.34	5.97	59.41	17.78	2.72	10.75	4.69
5	-7.13%	1.03%	0.37	7.50	53.67	18.67	5.83	9.50	12.33
										

A couple of interesting observations:
Quintile 1 folks have pulled 33% of their allocations to cash, and split the rest amongh the C/S/I. There is very little confidence in the 'F Fund'. They seem to be bailing out of the market with their IFTs. 13 of 32 people in this quintile have 50%+ in the G/F Funds.

Quintile 2 folks are not trading their accounts, hold very little G/F and have a high allocation in the 'I Fund' and a very modest C/S holding. They seem to be attempting to ride the wave. They seem to also be more confident that we are in a more sustained growth period - and have thought so for the entire year. 7 of 32 people have 50%+ in the G/F Funds. The rest are much more bullish. Hello Birch...

Quintile 3 folks are not trading and have NO confidence in the market. They are happy with 'G Fund' returns. 23 of 32 people here hold 50%+ in the G/F Funds. 5 of the 32 folks in this quintile have 30% or more in C/S/I. These folks are either very bearish or nearing/in retirement.

Quintile 4 folks look similar to Quintile 3 bubbas, but there is more gambling going on in this casino. 13 of 30 folks have 30% or more assets in their C/S/I funds.

Looks like a correction is taking place.

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work. That may have saved me a few points, or may cause me to lose a few points. Don’t really know, don’t really care…

Tomorrow, work permitting, will be the day of my final May IFT. Probably to:

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Maybe I'll wait to see if some of the bulls peel back...

We shall see

Originally Posted by Boghie

Looks like a correction is taking place.

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work. That may have saved me a few points, or may cause me to lose a few points. Don’t really know, don’t really care…

Tomorrow, work permitting, will be the day of my final May IFT. Probably to:

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Maybe I'll wait to see if some of the bulls peel back...

We shall see

Absolutely swamped today. Didn't get my IFT in. I will try to remember to get it in tomorrow. My guess is that unless the market dumps early tomorrow we are on are way back up...

By the way, isn't todays (2009/05/14) 'F Fund' chart an odd looking one. Look at those swings.

Watch Kalifornea folks,
Watch the Panic of May 19th
Kinda wish I didn't live in this state

Whats the weather like in Afghanistan

Maybe those who pay the nickels for gubmint bloat wont rant and rave and protest - but we sure do vote

Hasta La Vista, Arnold!

Originally Posted by Boghie

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work.

Absolutely swamped today. Didn't get my IFT in. I will try to remember to get it in tomorrow.

I'm a little confused... I assume you know that the TSP website / thrift line accepts transfers 24 hrs a day??

Good luck whatever you decide!

100% in the Market...

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Why, I don't think we are in for a full correction. Optionman, Birch, and some others are all in...

Originally Posted by Boghie

100% in the Market...

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Why, I don't think we are in for a full correction. Optionman, Birch, and some others are all in...

I have to admit - if I had my TSP Investments exactly like yours...


I could see myself (at least in my mind) moon walking down the halls and spinning and swaying and having a great time.

And telling everyone enthusiatically: 'Oh yeal !! I'm raking it in' !!

Birch is always in !!! So if you're using him as the guide then forget that G (or F) even exist.

Optionman I haven't had time to follow - maybe he's too quiet. :toung:

Anyway today is a very good day

Yes, it's a good day but won't be a very good day unless we can crack the 200 point barrier. That could happen after the 1500 hour mark when the goo starts easing out of the bears. There is a reason I'm always in - I don't want to miss any points in either direction.

Ahem Steady and Birch,

Today will only be OK for me. I am currently only 35% 'In The Market'.

That will change COB.

I number crunched my allocation this weekend and can handle a standard correction without a trace of tears. You gotta be able to handle 10% - 20% corrections if you want to be in. I won't lose that much because I can bail to the G, but...

Like Birch, I think there will be movement back into the market.