Thread: Boghies Account Talk

The Futures Looks Bright,
But, I Gotta Wear Shades

Again, I cannot fathom why an inflation rate of a mere 8.5% is a good thing. The FED wants 2%. It is going in the right direction so maybe...

I really no longer need much growth in my retirement accounts. Kinda got what I need covered between the three of them - one of which is in 'risk' and making some bank. So, I think I will watch for a bit with my main nest egg (TSP).

I'd sure hate to get all excited and all invested and all in only to have the FED go all Volker on me

Originally Posted by Boghie

The Futures Looks Bright,
But, I Gotta Wear Shades

Again, I cannot fathom why an inflation rate of a mere 8.5% is a good thing. The FED wants 2%. It is going in the right direction so maybe...

Your last sentence (in bold) is all you need to know.
Its not whether its 8.5% now...its validation that Inflation has peaked, and with all commodities, real estate, etc falling hard from June peaks, there is greater expectations of 0.5% to even 1% LOWERING of the Inflation rate each month. That lowering trend will start making people believe the FED will slow their rate hikes in the coming months.
Instead of 0.75% hikes, they might do that 1 more time then signal that 0.50% hikes, or even 0.25% hikes are in the future. That takes VOLKER-like double digit rates off the table.
And THAT...will likely lead to rising equities...from their 30% Oversold position the first half of this year.

Also, the super-strong jobs numbers (300,000-500,000 per month) and Atlanta FED now betting on POSITIVE GDP for this 3rd quarter, takes Recession OFF the table, at least for now.
There is now an increasing chance of the "Soft Landing" that almost everyone had written off a few months ago. Maybe 50/50 now as opposed to 10/90 just 2 months ago.
Now that could change later towards winter...but 'Winter" has nothing to do with allocations in August.

Originally Posted by Boghie

The Futures Looks Bright,

I really no longer need much growth in my retirement accounts. Kinda got what I need covered between the three of them - one of which is in 'risk' and making some bank. So, I think I will watch for a bit with my main nest egg (TSP).

I'd sure hate to get all excited and all invested and all in only to have the FED go all Volker on me

Congratulations on having your retirement accounts lined up where they need to be. Nothing wrong with being conservative in that stage.
I'm still trying to get there...and have to outperform the markets to get there in the next 5-6 years.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Also, the super-strong jobs numbers (300,000-500,000 per month) and Atlanta FED now betting on POSITIVE GDP for this 3rd quarter, takes Recession OFF the table, at least for now.
There is now an increasing chance of the "Soft Landing" that almost everyone had written off a few months ago. Maybe 50/50 now as opposed to 10/90 just 2 months ago.

Of course every talking head has their own agenda but BlackRock disagrees.
BlackRock Says There Is No 'Soft-Landing': Central Banks Will Have To Plunge Economy Into A Deep Recession To Stop Inflation | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

Originally Posted by WorkFE

Of course every talking head has their own agenda but BlackRock disagrees.
BlackRock Says There Is No 'Soft-Landing': Central Banks Will Have To Plunge Economy Into A Deep Recession To Stop Inflation | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

Cramer They Know Nothing.jpg

Of course that article was from Aug 9th...will be interesting if Black Rock tries a "Face-Saving Pivot" in the coming days/weeks given todays inflation report.

What my cheesy allocation in C/S/I allows is time.

I'm trying to keep politics out. I left money on the table during the Obama presidency because my economic and political beliefs interfered with what I was witnessing in the market.

So, I will camp this a bit and watch. I have been throwing a large chunk of cash every pay period purely into C/S/I. I really don't like to be heavily invested in the Summer months anyway. If we hit bottom - and, there really has to no other reason than that we hit bottom and now the prices warrant buying by the big boys - than we will likely get a short sell period that will shake the last of the folks out. I won't get all the early gains, but I will get a decent chunk and I can buy in sometime in November. I really don't like August through October - I have lost a lot of money in those months.

Best wishes, FWM. This early timing move may get you to retirement earlier than you think. They are POWERFULL when they hit.

Current Allocation (as of COB Tuesday, August 16, 2022):

Fund Allocation Banal Thoughts

G 40% I don't trust this market, but bonds suck, so...
F 10% Rode this pig, rate hikes still coming
C 20% Acting like a market bottom was reached
S 20% Acting like a market bottom was reached
I 10% The EuroTrash look worse than we do. Is this permanent

Sciencey Stuff:

Expected Annual Return: 7.40%
Expected Risk: 7.92%
Best Year: 22.17%
Worst Year: -15.57%
Biggest Dump: -25.71%

I don't trust equities, but math is not on the side of either bonds or the 'G Fund'. You are guaranteed loss of buying power in G during inflation, you are almost guaranteed loss of return in F during periods of interest rate hikes. However, greedy corporate grinders can increase pricing to deal with increased energy costs and other forms of inflation. Still, an extremely conservative allocation for me. Not recommending anything for those dumb enough to pay attention to this loss leading thread.

Current allocation: 100% "S" fund.

Expected Annual Return: No clue. I'm sitting at a -14.77% I was as low as -30.58%. Hoping for something close to zero.
Expected Risk: I'm staying 100% "S" fund.
Best Year: 33.40%
Worst Year: -12.82% So far. But this year might end up being my worst year

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Current allocation: 100% "S" fund.

Expected Annual Return: No clue. I'm sitting at a -14.77% I was as low as -30.58%. Hoping for something close to zero.
Expected Risk: I'm staying 100% "S" fund.
Best Year: 33.40%
Worst Year: -12.82% So far. But this year might end up being my worst year

Too funny. This is what 'Portfolio Visualizer Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation' says about your running nekkid on the beach allocation:

Sciencey Stuff (closest thing I can get to S is 'Small Cap'):

Expected Annual Return: 11.51%
Expected Risk: 19.64%
Best Year: 55.13%
Worst Year: -36.07%
Biggest Dump: -53.95%

At the end of June, the Small Caps were in the 9th worse draw (-22.49%) down since 1972.

That worse year and worse drawdown look mighty scary. I don't want to take part in that ride!!!

I just love the way you narrate your thoughts. Keep it up, as it helps to humor the situation rather than sulk in it. Thanks for the chuckles...

I guess FED Chair Powell isn't overly impressed with the Administration's attempts at controlling inflation - by pouring more money into the system. Who would have thunk?

Why can't this guy open his yak on the days TSP is buying my shares. That would have been nice.

Positive thoughts, think positive thoughts.

This is what we voted fore.

Gooder and harder

Happiness

P

l

o

p

I have lost more this year than I did peak to dump during 2007 - 2009. I knew this would be a mess, but I wanted to keep my personal feelings out of my investing. Glad I'm old and never had more than 70% in the market (C/S/I). Yowser...

Man, down 14.5% with conservative allocations.