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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #1177

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Still have 2 IFTs burning a hole in my pocket. But I don't plan to use either of them until SPX exceeds 2898, or shows it's finally beginning it's journey back to 2583. It seems to thinking through the process with more sideways actions. We haven't seen any big declines like we did in December and the market still hasn't recovered above that the previous SPX high. I still think 2100 is on deck this year. But my May timeline now seems nuts. I'm setting a new target for September. We'll see how she goes.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  2.  
  3. #1178

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    It SPX goes below 2931 - stand by for heavy rolls..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  4.  
  5. #1179

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Who knows what goes down tomorrow. Word has it the Chinese Vice Premier will be here for the trade talks. China retreated from agreements it had made with American negotiators. Trump has declared that tariffs will be imposed effective Friday. Who blinks first. My guess, the bad news will come first, the markets will dip, and later when China begins to really see and feel the pain to their economy, they'll fold. Until then, I wouldn't be surprised at some pullback.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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  7. #1180

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I'm guessing 2855-2840 area tomorrow and a deeper retrace after Friday. Wouldn't be surprised to see us retouch the December lows. Who know what happens after we pullback. This has been a very robust market and the economy is still very strong.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  8.  
  9. #1181

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Are we at an inflection point? Inquiring minds want to know....and I'm guessing the truth will be revealed after our IFT cut-off time....In the meantime, a little humor for all my TSP friends..TrumpsTariffs.jpg

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #1182

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I'm laughing but only because I realize the cartoonist got it backwards!!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  13. #1183

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I'm looking at today like the 1st day of a Government Shutdown. It will get worse as time goes on and some folks are going to be hurt in a bad way, Agriculture but also many manufacturing and industrial firms. I'm really not a fan of these tariffs. I hope they can get resolved quickly, but I get the feeling this is going to take time. Right now expecting 2770-2780 tomorrow on SPX.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  14.  
  15. #1184

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I'm guessing 2855-2840 area tomorrow and a deeper retrace after Friday. Wouldn't be surprised to see us retouch the December lows. Who know what happens after we pullback. This has been a very robust market and the economy is still very strong.

    FS
    Nice Call!
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #1185

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Today I think we'll see SPX at 2778 IF it retreats under 2820, which I think is probable. Then, because of the of the strength of the market perhaps a bounce back to 2834. My analysis is changing day to day because of the strength of the current market. My current big picture thinking is that the trade war effect will hit us hard sometime next fall. So my 2100 prediction just moved out 6 months to March 2020. Time will tell.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #1186

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Today I think we'll see SPX at 2778 IF it retreats under 2820, which I think is probable. Then, because of the of the strength of the market perhaps a bounce back to 2834. My analysis is changing day to day because of the strength of the current market. My current big picture thinking is that the trade war effect will hit us hard sometime next fall. So my 2100 prediction just moved out 6 months to March 2020. Time will tell.
    FS
    I normally only look out ahead a month or so, but I looked under the hood of a few of my models based on our chat yesterday ... lo and behold, one of the three did forecast a huge, multi-leg, drop (27% total from yesterday's close) ... in the latter part of this August. Like your analysis, my forecasts can change daily. Until I get an actual signal, they don't mean much to me and I assume they're inaccurate .
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  21. #1187

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Historically June has not been a good month for stocks and July isn't much better. Although the last 3 years have been positive years for July.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #1188

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Just for reference this is what the TSP funds have done since 1988.

    Attachment 44379
    May the force be with us.


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