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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #757

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    It looks like the one you posted is the most up to date. Our's and AAII don't take Friday's rally into consideration.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #758

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    OK then...Back to flying by the seat of my pants...

    Attachment 39050

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  5. #759

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    CNN's fear/greed index is on extreme greed.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  7. #760

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I'm definitely feeling bullish, but so is the rest of the world. When sentiment is this high, it's time to be cautious.... My gut says this market needs to get to 2195 or higher before it pulls back...but that's the problem..it's a gut feeling..
    FS
    There's always things to worry about...
    Weekly Forecast: Week of August 8th, 2016
    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
    In addition, the VIX and S&P 500 both gave sell signals today by first closing outside of their Bollinger Bands and then closing back inside of them today.

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  9. #761

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    These last couple of months have been strange to say the least. Doesn't seem to be anything to support the market level that we are at.
    Is today Saturday again?

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  11. #762

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Attached is a chart of today's SPX action. The SPX graph indicates to me that we are likely trending down a bit for further consolidation. It seems too early in the month for a pullback below 2130 but the BB's are looking very constricted. Something is about to give. Volume looks be to light but normal. As I write the Dollar and Euro were strengthening and oil pulled back a bit but is still above $41. I think Thursday and Friday will tell the tale.

    Attachment 39067

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  13. #763

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Looks to me like there is so real strong stock manipulation going on today by the "powers that be". The dollar is rebounding and RUT has gone positive. Hoping the same happens for SPX and it holds through the day. Oil price is making gains so that appears to be where the largest manipulation is occurring. VIX has gone negative again. Crazy day...Just hope to get out of here today in one piece.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  15. #764

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    We are really close to the 2195 resistance level. The powers that be seem to pushing the market up...for example oil spikes 16% even though Russians say output production ceiling is problematic. Makes me wonder when reality will begin to set in. Will be interesting to see if it can break through the 2195-2199 range. If not, I think the market will pull back before heading back up to 2250 area.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  17. #765

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    We are really close to the 2195 resistance level. The powers that be seem to pushing the market up...for example oil spikes 16% even though Russians say output production ceiling is problematic. Makes me wonder when reality will begin to set in. Will be interesting to see if it can break through the 2195-2199 range. If not, I think the market will pull back before heading back up to 2250 area.

    FS
    I really hope you're right about a pull back, the melt up is getting bothersome; getting that capitulation feeling again... :-/
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!


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  19. #766

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    I really hope you're right about a pull back, the melt up is getting bothersome; getting that capitulation feeling again... :-/
    I feel the same way and don't like it.
    Is today Saturday again?

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  21. #767

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Well, SPX hasn't exceeded 2195 as of yet. Still hoping for a bit of a pullback.

    Some sites I'm reading are talking about the breadth indicators softening because the big money has been moving out of equities.

    Who knows, perhaps tomorrow is Turnaround Tuesday..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #768

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Here are a few graphs posted by Market Timing Update: Market Timing Update (8/15/16) that provide some interesting information on SPX. The first identifies the gaps that are currently open and the second indicates that we have just completed (or are about to complete) wave c of 5 and will now begin a retrace in wave d before heading to 2250.

    The wave stuff is just theory and I've learned you have to be very careful about reading much into it because there are more than a handful of interpretations about which count is closest to right. Waves tend to subdivide and go where they will, which is usually not where it seems like they are going,.... so you have to careful in reading too much into it. But, today this count seemed to be more right to me than others I've seen today.

    Attachment 39131Attachment 39132
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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