Very good article about current markets.
https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/03/keeping-it-real/
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Interesting morning. Started the day down with oil -3% but the markets haven't crashed and appear ready to rally this afternoon. Perhaps on hopes of an agreement at Doha. I am not confident about an agreement but isn't it really about how they want to sell the news that gets attention. Forex is where the action is as the dollar has slid a bit against the Yen and the US markets perked up. Probably heading to G today Wanted to just take off the I Fund stuff so I'd be 80G, 20 F but that's not doable under the IFT rules. I'm too invested in the I Fund right now and while the China news was actually neutral to good, my faith in the markets is suffering, and with the Yen going up I'd expect some negative action in the N225 on Monday.
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
If this is true, Monday is likely going to be a bad day.
Doha Is Done: Saudi Prince Drops Bomb - "No Deal Without Iran...We Are Selling At Every Opportunity" | Zero Hedge
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
For the past few days I've noticed that the bonds market was moving opposite the stock market. A lot of us were brought up to think that typical behavior occurs when stocks go up, bonds go down and vice versa, but that isn't really the case for the past 20 or so years. For example, over the past 2 months both stocks and bonds have moved in parallel more often than not...but that behavior seems to be changing. Attached is an article that I think discusses this issue reasonably well. Just FYI.
When Do Stock and Bond Prices Move in Opposite Directions? -- The Motley Fool
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
This probably isn't good news for stocks and should result in a drop in oil prices and is probably good for just Main Street....
No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement | Zero Hedge
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
What a mind freak. Oill goes down but trading stays neutral and closes the gap from the initial slide. So, gap closed
if good news is good news
if bad news is good news
if every breath CBs take is good news
if oil goes up market follow
if oil goes down market doesn't follow
maybe nothing can stop markets going up :
hhhhhhhhmmmm
Honestly, none of this makes any financial sense.
I really feel like the Monopoly money people have taken over.
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
I'm not surprised by the rally...The waves dictated the need for one more wave higher, and thanks to the dumb day traders shorting the market Sunday night on the oil news it just provided more of a springboard for short covering today for this final wave 5. Today is also the final day of a short window in the middle of the lunar red phase where you can get some panic short covering and a blow-off top.
I put my sell order in Saturday morning, and though I think the closing top could likely come tomorrow, and the price peak make come just after the Fed announcement Wednesday, I'm not going to be greedy and I'll go ahead and let my IFT ride and get back to the F fund today. EFA may yet close that gap at 59.52 but I'll leave that on the table for those more brave than me.
I just hope Northy's bullish scenario doesn't pan out (I don't think so, I think the move down to 1500 or lower is still in the cards and I won't change my mind unless the S&P breaks above 2116)...and if the market is breaking out by May 1st I can always get back in then...May would be a C fund month in my seasonal system...
https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/16/the-big-move/
Meanwhile, I want no surprises today, including an unexplained low settlement price on the I fund today...a nice steady ramp into the close would be sweet!
Have to admit though, I'm surprised that EFA is up at all with the Nikkei down 3.4% in reaction to the earthquake...I thought Japan was the biggest component of the I fund.
That's good advice JP!!!! Especially in the BULLISH times...
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
Hi TS. I concur with your thinking on the wave count and EW definitely indicated another wave up. My thinking on Friday was that the Doha meeting was going to be a bust and on that point I was correct. I thought the news would control today's action. That was clearly wrong. However, the oil price recovery overnight was a bit of a surprise to me. Makes me wonder if CBs decided to sell gold, or whether we will be seeing a massive maintenance shut down for refineries, or this is just another attack on the shale industry. Probably all of the above. Bears insist this wave is corrective and I believe we are still in a bear market. So until we break HH's (which is getting closer) I'm siding on the conservative side. All the best today TS.
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
Bookmarks