Thread: retread's Account talk

The Dow peaked on Sep 2 before all the other indexes (also the date the fed decided to hide the GDP forecast). Today it reached the July lows. I think the other indexes will drop down to the July lows as well.


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I know I said maybe a down move to July lows and I still think there is a bear flag forming on some of the charts. That's why I'm not going all in. However positive action today and yesterday and recapturing 50 day on IWM and DWCPF today (if it holds!) has me leaning to get in a little. I have another IFT to use this month to get in more if things continue to trend up. 60G 20S 20C cob. Good luck all!

July lows, here we come!

Originally Posted by retread

July lows, here we come!

Looks like you maybe right Retread. I would nit be surprised if it hits it thus week. Getting closer. Best wishes to you!

Well I went against my seasonal last week which says to stay in G til mid Oct and I got bit on Tuesday. I was only 40% in so not too huge of a hit. But am using my last IFT to go back to G today. Powell is backpedaling and admitted that inflation would last longer and we're seeing that in the UUP and TNX which remain elevated. The % of stocks above their 200 day moving average continues to fall. If you look at the graph below it bounced off the 40 week MA through 2019, a few times last year, and one time this year. That changed in July. It has been in a steady downward trend since summer. The character of the market has changed this month. I keep thinking about the Hindenburg Omens (3 of them!) we were getting last month. Going to wait for the market to prove itself before jumping back in. Good luck everyone!

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retread, you have 2 new IFT's for October. Good luck.

So we kicked the debt ceiling can down the road and markets gapped up today (so far). Practically every chart shows a gap up which means they will eventually get filled (transports trying to do that now maybe). Jumping in a little today (why is it always easier to jump in when the markets goin up?) but holding back because of the gaps on the downside. Seasonal strat picks up next week and I am hoping for good jobs numbers tomorrow. 60G, 20C, 20S cob. Good luck all.

I'll take what ever good news that keeps the "S" fund in the green instead of going red.

*deep breaths* believe in the seasonal, believe in the seasonal.

Worst case scenario: S fund dropping to where it broke out around the election of 2020? There are gaps down there.

On a more positive note I read this in the New York Times today:

"A close look at the numbers shows that the annual C.P.I. inflation rate reflects the very low base levels of one year ago, when the pandemic had suppressed demand and prices were low. The month-to-month numbers support a different narrative. Most basically, if you look at the monthly C.P.I. numbers — as well as those of other inflation measures — you will find that although inflation is high, it is not spiking. Consider that monthly C.P.I. rose:

• .09 percent in October.
  
• 0.7 percent in November.
  
• 0.6 percent in December.
  
• 0.6 percent in January.
  It’s true that this has been the worst year for inflation in more than 40 years, but we’ve known that for months. What these numbers show is that although inflation is high, it has also been fairly stable on a month-to-month basis. "