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Thread: retread's Account talk

  1. #13

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    904

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    I've noticed that too and hope your statement can be turned into a prediction that ends up being fulfilled!
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  3. #14

    Default Re: close to top?

    Reduced from 100% exposure to 40% exposure COB today. I have made up almost all of my losses from the early March debacle. I just feel like I've pushed being at 100% exposure long enough (almost 30 days at that level is long for me) My reasoning to hedge toward safety is the head and shoulders pattern on the S fund and the inability for the C fund to make any progress (even though it looks like a bull flag forming). The weekly's are stretched too. TNX and VIX are both creeping up again. Also I think the market is looking for an excuse to go down and I think the theatrics with FOMC today will give them the excuse. Reasons for staying in 40% are because I do see that bull flag forming on the C fund, transports, copper, and lumber have been doing well too. If it goes up and resumes a trend higher, great. I can get back in more in a few days. And lastly, we all know the big guns watch what we do in our TSP's and move the opposite way whenever we make a move. lol Good luck everyone!

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  5. #15

    Default Re: close to top?

    Not sure if this is related but the last time lumber went parabolic like it's doing now was last August just before he sharp pull back in early Sept

    lumber.jpg

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  7. #16

    Default Re: close to top?

    Well I was right about lumber peaking just before a crash like it did last fall (see previous post). I should have listened to myself. This time I think it IS different. Lumber is pointing for more pain to come as it eventually slices through it's 20 day MA and on downward like it did in Sept.

    lumber.jpg

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  9. #17

    Default Re: close to top?

    Lumber continues to fall. An ominous sign for the rest of the market? See Sept/Oct last year.

    lumber.jpg

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  11. #18

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    Big up candle on lumber today! Maybe the worst is over?

    lumber.jpg


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  13. #19

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    The 200-day EMA was the low today but the upside filled that open gap which could be resistance. It's certainly due for a dead cat bounce but tomorrow will be key.

    It's interesting that it was falling while the dollar falling and rallied today when the dollar rallied.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #20

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    It was a wild day today. 5% down this morning, then 5% up this afternoon. Wonder if we'll see these kind of swings in the other markets? Crazy!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/lumb...d-unwinds.html

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  17. #21

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    904

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    Shouldn't we expect to see lumber come down as the economy continues to move more towards normalcy? I mean, I can understand being excited when oil is moving up, especially if it's due to increased demand from a rocketing economy. On the other hand, lumber is sky high because of turmoil and instability. Unless you're invested in lumber, I'd think the general feel is that when it's coming down that means we're doing great.

    Just a random thought.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  19. #22

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    part of the storm that made lumber prices rise, was the increased demand for housing at the same time employees were being sent home. until returning to work employee production of milled lumber catches up with demand, the improvements in the economy will still produced a short term increase in lumber prices. its just a catch up game before prices return to normal.

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  21. Default Re: retread's Account talk

    I follow a guy on YouTube, “Uneducated Economist” who either works at or owns a lumber yard and provides some great analysis on lumber prices as well as other things. His take on current prices goes back to 2018 when Canada had bug issues and compounded by COVID.

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  23. #24

    Default Re: retread's Account talk

    So a possible bear flag forming on the S fund and IWM? Both failed and were rejected at 2 intersecting indicies: the 20 and 50 day MA. QQQ and SMH (tech sector) both failed and closed below their 20 and 50 day MA. For the week S fund closed below it's 20 period MA for the second week in a row and that 20 period MA is flattening. IWM just closed it's week below the 20 period MA. It hasn't done that since May of last year. Rut Rough!

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