Page 156 of 160 FirstFirst ... 56106146154155156157158 ... LastLast
Results 1,861 to 1,872 of 1911

Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1861

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    In Your Imagination...
    Posts
    4,385

    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I must admit, I did not expect this much of a post-election rally. But, I know I'm not the only one surprised by the action over the past couple of months. Since the election, there has been only a handful of days when we've had a selloff. A few days at best, really. I don't like it when Mr. Market ignores "events" going on around it. And that's all I will say as far as "events" are concerned. From my experience, however, this usually signals a major shift in the market that is about to occur. I don't know what the catalyst will be, or when it will occur. But, I believe it is coming sooner rather than later.

    As a day/swing trader who is usually flat by the end of the day, this doesn't really concern my investments. It is more of a concern for folks like yourself who manage a TSP with extremely limited trading options. Some of you will likely get caught up in this correction (or crash) when it finally does commence. But, let the past be a reminder of how quickly Mr. Market rebounds and recovers from such an event. Don't be so quick to sell at a loss, unless, of course, it is part of your risk management. Just don't do it on a whim... on a knee jerk reaction. Have a plan now for when this eventual correction/crash occurs. Good luck with your investments!

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  2.  
  3. #1862

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Well, so much for that... for now. But, those RSI's are get'n up there. Any day now...
    Lord know I don't ask for much.. If you could please just let me know which day, preferably at least one day in advance..

  4.  
  5. #1863

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,685
    Blog Entries
    13

    Default Rod's Account Talk

    I got news for you, Rod. I’m think UP, not down.

    The market isn’t going down any time soon. In fact, I think it’s going to melt UP for at least the next six months, as:

    1. The new President gets settled in.

    2. Congress passes, very quickly, a new round of stimulus cash to individuals. I see that happening by the end of February, as soon as they figure out what to put in the package. It may take until March if they have to tie other things into it, but no later than March. Likely February.

    3. A new bridges/roads/infrastructure bill will be big, and early. I’m thinking by March or April. That will put lots of money into states!

    4. The $15 minimum wage bill will pass. That’s a Spring/summer project, although I don’t know the timing on the increase. It may be a five-year bill to get us there- but it is coming. That will lead to optimism, it will lead to some inflation,too. But the market will take it all in stride, because any hiccups from a minimum wage increase won’t come until months AFTER the wages go up.

    5. The Fed will leave interest rates alone until at LEAST the fall, maybe longer.

    6. The vaccines will start lowering Covid numbers by mid-summer. Between now and then it’s going to be bad- but by the fall, October-November will be below 2020 November Covid numbers, IF enough people get vaccinated.

    We just need to survive until then. Which IS going to be hard.

    I could be wrong. But I think I’m right.

    Let’s keep our fingers crossed. And stocks climbing.



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


  6.  
  7. #1864

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Well, something has to give.

    I'm going to try avoiding political biases and knee jerk reactions. I lost too much in gains by equating market = politics during an earlier Presidency. I shall trust, but verify. The market has boomed. Tremendously. Even without politics or potential unrest or potential tax code changes the market seems frothy. Is it 2006 frothy, I don't think it is quite that stupid, but. So, just watch. And, accept normal market corrections - corrections like a -7% to -10% adjustment.

    Regardless, my current holdings and my expected contributions can support a nice retirement at age 65 with a 5.5% average annual return. My current allocation has an expected return of 8% - with an expected risk of 8%. In a 2008 style collapse my max drawdown in this allocation would have been -32%. That would be ugly, why would I accept it. That drawdown took seven months - from September 2007 to March 2008. We at TSPTalk will not likely sleep our way through that, so an allocation like 30/30/17/13/10 would limit the max drawdown to -20%. And, then there is the full panic allocation of 100/0/0/0 which has no drawdown. I think I can limit a potential flop to 10% or so by watching folks here and paying attention to the trends.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #1865

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I got news for you, Rod. I’m think UP, not down.

    The market isn’t going down any time soon. In fact, I think it’s going to melt UP for at least the next six months, as:

    1. The new President gets settled in.

    2. Congress passes, very quickly, a new round of stimulus cash to individuals. I see that happening by the end of February, as soon as they figure out what to put in the package. It may take until March if they have to tie other things into it, but no later than March. Likely February.

    3. A new bridges/roads/infrastructure bill will be big, and early. I’m thinking by March or April. That will put lots of money into states!

    4. The $15 minimum wage bill will pass. That’s a Spring/summer project, although I don’t know the timing on the increase. It may be a five-year bill to get us there- but it is coming. That will lead to optimism, it will lead to some inflation,too. But the market will take it all in stride, because any hiccups from a minimum wage increase won’t come until months AFTER the wages go up.

    5. The Fed will leave interest rates alone until at LEAST the fall, maybe longer.

    6. The vaccines will start lowering Covid numbers by mid-summer. Between now and then it’s going to be bad- but by the fall, October-November will be below 2020 November Covid numbers, IF enough people get vaccinated.

    We just need to survive until then. Which IS going to be hard.

    I could be wrong. But I think I’m right.

    Let’s keep our fingers crossed. And stocks climbing.
    Unless President Biden waves the Social Security clawback folks are going to take a massive hit in their take home income starting this month...

    If he, and Congress, want to spend on Bread and Circuses they will need that casholla!!! Can he continue to sell Social Security as the greatest retirement package in history if he doesn't fund it? It will look kinda optional at that point, wouldn't it. The GenXers and Millenials will really jump on that band wagon. They know Social Security is not fully funded with anything but a promise. However, they don't understand that it will remain funded at about 75% even if the politicians welch on their promises - they think it will go to 0. It might be a hard sell, eh. BTW, those tax changes are going to be difficult to sell as well - how many of you want to give a tax break to someone with State and Local taxes exceeding $10K? Maybe some, not me. I don't live in a high tax state and I know Bread and Circuses require mullah so I can guess where it will come from.

    Any of you figure out what your net income will be in a couple of pay period2? Ooo, that first clawback will be a shocker!!!

    This is going to be fun to watch.

    GLHF

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #1866

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,874
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I love how bright and rosy the future is when markets are going up. No consideration to any tail risks.

    What happens when this administration decides to subsidize bankrupt states of NY, CA, IL with federal taxpayer money? There goes that big spending bill.

    What happens if Biden dies or has to step down?

    A new round of stimulus being passed is all but certain. Not all dems are on board with it.

    What if more of these massive IPO's end up as sham companies? What about the massively high P/E's for some tech companies when offices open again?

  12.  
  13. #1867

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Uh, the Federal Gubmint just ran a $3.132 Trillion deficit for FY2020.

    Is this good???

    And, Social Security was expected to be in surplus by a measly $10 Billion in 2020 - thus, it can no long fund a politician's Bread and Circuses.

    I'm guessing the 'design margin' - otherwise known as a slush fund - has vanished.

    The grinding you will hear is gubmint falling apart.

    It will be dog eat dog.

    A static pie.

    Bye
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #1868

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    In Your Imagination...
    Posts
    4,385

    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Of all the times I've cried, "wolf", a correction (and even crash) showed up shortly the majority of those times. I am now crying wolf again. Now, you might instead "cry foul." But, I would not want my TSP exposed to Mr. Market between now and 20 Jan, and perhaps even the remainder of January. The risks outweigh the rewards. At any rate, I wish you the best with your investments!

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  16.  
  17. #1869

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    When was your last post precrash in the prior postings?

  18.  
  19. #1870

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    In Your Imagination...
    Posts
    4,385

    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by grimmjsg123 View Post
    When was your last post precrash in the prior postings?
    I began sounding the alarm in Dec 2019. Post #957:

    Rod's Account Talk

    I then began to sound the alarm on COVID on 27 Jan 2020. Post #970:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #975 on 28 Jan 2020:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #992 on 1 Feb 2020:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #1014 on 12 Feb 2020:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #1020 on 20 Feb 2020... when I mentioned a crash on the horizon, essentially agreeing with the news article:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #1022 on 20 Feb 2020:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Post #1040 on 23 Feb 2020:

    Rod's Account Talk

    Just to name a few. You can see all of my warnings leading up to the crash. Just go through the pages.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  20.  
  21. #1871

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Uh, the Federal Gubmint just ran a $3.132 Trillion deficit for FY2020.

    Is this good???

    And, Social Security was expected to be in surplus by a measly $10 Billion in 2020 - thus, it can no long fund a politician's Bread and Circuses.

    I'm guessing the 'design margin' - otherwise known as a slush fund - has vanished.

    The grinding you will hear is gubmint falling apart.

    It will be dog eat dog.

    A static pie.

    Bye
    Yep. There's a reason why people my age aren't counting on ever collecting Social Security. It probably won't be there when it's my turn

  22.  
  23. #1872

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    904

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I think the second part of Rod's post has a lot of merit: be on your toes and have a plan to make a safe exit when the market turns. And...it will turn eventually. Sooner or later is anybody's guess.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS


  24.  
Page 156 of 160 FirstFirst ... 56106146154155156157158 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Rod's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Rod's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Rod's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Rod's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes