Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Boghie

You are likely including your contributions.

Not so.

Because of planning for retirement, my last contribution was on 2 Apr 2009.

Without adding once red cent, my TSP account balance gained 281% during that more than 10-year period. It nearly tripled.

BTW, so there is no confusion, I am speaking about the monetary increase of my TSP balance over time... and not necessarily the YTD returns. I will post those YTD returns shortly.

Originally Posted by Boghie

A 13.5% average annualized return would be VERY hard to beat over 10 years. I bet NOBODY here - or anywhere - beat it.

I believe I did just that. Check my math... keeping in mind I am including the last two months of 2009 when I became a "buy-n-holder."

Nov-Dec 2009: 8.62%

2010: 21.16%

2011: -0.20%

2012: 17.14%

2013: 35.03%

2014: 11.24%

2015: -0.35%

2016: 13.84%

2017: 20.34%

2018: -6.36%

2019: 29.96%

It can be tricky averaging in that 8.62% I made from 3 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009. So, I will leave it out. Without it, my average YTD return over this 10-year period is:

141.80% / 10 = 14.18% + How 8.62% would average into this.

Originally Posted by Rod

I believe I did just that. Check my math... keeping in mind I am including the last two months of 2009 when I became a "buy-n-holder."

Nov-Dec 2009: 8.62%

2010: 21.16%

2011: -0.20%

2012: 17.14%

2013: 35.03%

2014: 11.24%

2015: -0.35%

2016: 13.84%

2017: 20.34%

2018: -6.36%

2019: 29.96%

It can be tricky averaging in that 8.62% I made from 3 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009. So, I will leave it out. Without it, my average YTD return over this 10-year period is:

141.80% / 10 = 14.18% + How 8.62% would average into this.

Amazing. If you are ever in Raleigh, NC I will buy you a meal, a beer or seven, and pick your brain. Frixxxx knows I'm good for it

That additional point over either C or S is the benefit of a blended allocation. However, note that you earned 14.18% - not 28% (which is what fired off my smell test). Compound growth is a GREAT thang.

I used to have my numbers but my computer crashed late last year and I decided to just start my Quicken file from scratch rather than import the data. Still have the data, but there were some missing transactions. This way I can be religious about the accuracy of the data as it goes in. Regardless, I know I didn't make that return. From January 2004 through September 2019 I think my return was a little over 9% on average.

Originally Posted by Boghie

However, note that you earned 14.18% - not 28% (which is what fired off my smell test).

That was a lack of clarification on my part... speaking about the monetary gains, itself. At least 281% is the percentage gain when I put both figures into this percentage gain calculator:

Percentage Gain Calculator - Calculate the percentage of increase/decrease between two units

And BTW, you still need to give me credit for the 8.62% gained in Nov-Dec 2009. Since I can't count that as an annual return, care to calculate that into 14.18%?


Although I earned 8.62% as a buy-n-holder during Nov-Dec 2009, my annual return for 2009 was 4.95%.

BTW, that year, I was down as much as -9.28% on my tracker... before I initiated my buy-n-hold strategy. When I initiated it, I was down -3.38%.

Maybe you can make heads and tails of my 2009 Tracker? I've bolded my YTD's and when I became a buy-n-holder @ 60 (C) and 40 (S). Look at those share prices!

My Return
Fund Price Fund Allocation (%) Fund Returns - (Incr/Dec) 20% in Return Return
Trans Start Date End Date G F C S I G F C S I G F C S I Each Period Year

Closing 2008 Price 12.7406 12.5807 10.4343 12.2069 14.2550

1 02-Jan-09 20-Feb-09 12.7830 12.5108 8.9417 10.4275 11.6625 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.33% -0.56% -14.30% -14.58% -18.19% -9.46% 0.33% 0.33%

2 23-Feb-09 03-Mar-09 12.7936 12.4572 8.0899 9.3843 10.5950 0% 0% 30% 0% 70% 0.08% -0.43% -9.53% -10.00% -9.15% -5.81% -9.27% -8.96%

3 04-Mar-09 10-Mar-09 12.8007 12.4139 8.3678 9.7202 10.8077 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.06% -0.35% 3.44% 3.58% 2.01% 1.75% -0.35% -9.28%

4 30-Oct-09 02-Nov-09 13.0559 13.3610 12.3112 14.8970 17.9044 90% 0% 10% 0% 0% 1.99% 7.63% 47.13% 53.26% 65.66% 35.13% 6.51% -3.38%

5 31-Dec-09 13.1195 13.3347 13.2177 16.4609 18.5372 0% 0% 60% 40% 0% 0.49% -0.20% 7.36% 10.50% 3.53% 4.34% 8.62% 4.95%

Man, don't get greedy here - that would be some ugly math

I kinda think this proves the actual benefit of a Buy-N-Hold strategy though - doesn't it. Had I just camped in your 60/40 allocation I would be $280K richer in my TSP. On the other hand, just those five return dates you posted for 2009 lead me to think that I would have bailed out of the 60%/40% C/S holdings and into something safer. Then, you have to time your way back in. Would I. I did, but I cannot guarantee I can always make that move.

Most folks panic sell near the bottom and are too scared to get back in on the other side of the bottom. They lock in their losses and miss out on the gains. I think that is why I have become an 'active' trader with allocations. It keeps me in the market but smooths out the variance. That concept doesn't help me with the annual TSP AutoTrader competition though :-).

I do think I am going to spend some time and look at my IFTs in 2013 and 2016 to see why I under-performed. I think that the G Fund is killing me. I think I'm going to add a bit more risk to all three allocations. With that risk comes the reward.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Man, don't get greedy here - that would be some ugly math

I kinda think this proves the actual benefit of a Buy-N-Hold strategy though - doesn't it. Had I just camped in your 60/40 allocation I would be $280K richer in my TSP. On the other hand, just those five return dates you posted for 2009 lead me to think that I would have bailed out of the 60%/40% C/S holdings and into something safer. Then, you have to time your way back in. Would I. I did, but I cannot guarantee I can always make that move.

Most folks panic sell near the bottom and are too scared to get back in on the other side of the bottom. They lock in their losses and miss out on the gains. I think that is why I have become an 'active' trader with allocations. It keeps me in the market but smooths out the variance. That concept doesn't help me with the annual TSP AutoTrader competition though :-).

I do think I am going to spend some time and look at my IFTs in 2013 and 2016 to see why I under-performed. I think that the G Fund is killing me. I think I'm going to add a bit more risk to all three allocations. With that risk comes the reward.

I became a buy-n-holder during that time because I was prepping for my Iraq deployment. Look at post #870:

Rod's Account Talk

Of course, it's difficult to actively manage investments during deployment. I saw that I was doing so well as a buy-n-holder that I just let it ride without looking back. I did follow the market during those 10 years, but not as close as I follow it now. Just enough to get a feel for what's happening. You can even ask Tom and the other mods on here- I was essentially AWOL on TSPTalk during that time. I would pop in from time to time, though. But, that was only a couple times or so a year just to provide an update on my allocation. There's always that chance I might buy-n-hold again. But, I don't plan on it being another 10 years.

Thank you for your brave service, Rod 🇺🇸

Originally Posted by Rod

Again, I recommend watching The Kendall Report every day before the market opens. He adds a lot of insight into what the market is doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vHQSGmUvYI

Rod not sure if you checked out this mornings video but probably good to do. He will be posting some more information regarding his theory on Sunday night as well. Honestly I'm excited about the possibilities of that pull back. Now just have to move some funds in my personal equities account. He helped me get some good earning the last couple weeks in my TD account. I like this guy and think he has some good insight.

SURPRISE... SURPRISE... SURPRISE... on the May jobs reports!

Instead of an estimated loss of 8M, 2.5M jobs were added!

Originally Posted by wahinepio

Thank you for your brave service, Rod 🇺🇸

Thank you for your support! We could not have done it without supportive folks such as yourself.

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

Rod not sure if you checked out this mornings video but probably good to do. He will be posting some more information regarding his theory on Sunday night as well. Honestly I'm excited about the possibilities of that pull back. Now just have to move some funds in my personal equities account. He helped me get some good earning the last couple weeks in my TD account. I like this guy and think he has some good insight.

I am glad you find his insights helpful. I am continuing to watch/test him before I make any moves based upon his insights/system. So far, he seems rather rock-solid.

BTW folks, we are talking about The Kendall Report. You can usually wake up to a new report every morning before the opening bell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf0Jv2ASfuQ