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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1561

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    If I do, it will be more about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report than it is about the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. I would think that a blowout report would carry Mr. Market tomorrow. Therefore, I would be leaning more on it than the 50-EMA. But, both may work together hand-in-hand for a positive day tomorrow. Contemplating going either 100 (S) or 30 (C) / 70 (S).
    I inadvertently got that backwards. I should have written: 100 (C) or 70 (C) / 30 (S). But, I might also return to 60 (C) / 40 (S). That seemed to have worked for me when I was a buy-n-holder. But overall, the (S) fund does have more to gain in terms of its 59.2371 high set on 20 Feb.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  3. #1562

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I wish my crystal ball was more clear and definitive on what I should be doing.

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  5. #1563

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    I inadvertently got that backwards. I should have written: 100 (C) or 70 (C) / 30 (S). But, I might also return to 60 (C) / 40 (S). That seemed to have worked for me when I was a buy-n-holder. But overall, the (S) fund does have more to gain in terms of its 59.2371 high set on 20 Feb.
    Probably a stupid question but, would the move be for just a couple day gain or something looking at until the warning signs say to get back to G? I have been looking, probably like everyone who has been in G, to make a move to potentially earn something. Just feel like I need to be ready to move back quickly if this thing starts heading south. But the Fed is doing it's thing so even if we have some pull backs I don't think it will be as far as some of us may have thought it could go. Weird times.

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  7. #1564

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    As mentioned earlier this morning...

    My IFT is about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report combined with the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. One would think that a blowout report would help to carry Mr. Market tomorrow. It just might work hand-in-hand with the 50-EMA for a positive day tomorrow. We shall see!

    Effective COB: 70 (C) 30 (S)

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  9. #1565

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    BTW, I was very nervous to initiate that IFT. So, hopefully that's a rewarding contrarian indicator for tomorrow.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  11. #1566

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    As mentioned earlier this morning...

    My IFT is about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report combined with the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. One would think that a blowout report would help to carry Mr. Market tomorrow. It just might work hand-in-hand with the 50-EMA for a positive day tomorrow. We shall see!

    Effective COB: 70 (C) 30 (S)

    God Bless
    Agreed.

    Let's light this candle.

    Edit: either way, I'll be picking up more shares of each than when I sold on Feb 22. Silver lining?


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  13. #1567

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I did not mention...

    One unknown is AAPL's earnings. It will also report today (along with AMZN) after the closing bell. I just hope it doesn't dampen the expected positive effect of AMZN's earnings. It very well could. That's the chance I am taking.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  15. #1568

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by LTJPFED View Post
    Probably a stupid question but, would the move be for just a couple day gain or something looking at until the warning signs say to get back to G?
    My plan is to hold the allocation as long as the S&P 500 remains above its 50-EMA, which currently sets @ 2822.03. That means I am willing to ride it down (at a loss) to whatever the 50-EMA is at the time. But, if it breaks significantly below it, then back to (G) I will be.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  17. #1569

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Rod, what are your thoughts on an unimpressive earnings report based on states late March lockdown dates? Do you think there will be a significant increase in "covid home shopping" prior to Mar 31 to provide an impressive increase in revenue over previous quarters? That's my gamble here: a delivery of unimpressive numbers followed by Friday-before-the-weekend rally buying on the near certainty that next quarter numbers will be dramatic in the home delivery sector...unless the bears pull the price down to further capitalize on those numbers later.

    oooooh, the wheel is spinning...00 or 0, red or black...

    RE: Apple--I've noticed an inordinately high number of refurb'd Apple offerings on discount website at extraordinary prices. I picked up three refurb'd 256g iPhone X's at 299 each at various sites over the last month (bday presents, happy nieces and nephews) My thoughts are in this lockdown, people are trading up for larger screens/processing power based on wildly increased screen time, so Apple has liquidated refurb'd stuff to authorized resellers at cut rates to limit official apple products to higher echelon offerings. I suspect next quarter numbers will be impressive but todays may be humdrum normal.
    Last edited by mdfiasco; 04-30-2020 at 11:32 AM.

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  19. #1570

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mdfiasco View Post
    Do you think there will be a significant increase in "covid home shopping" prior to Mar 31 to provide an impressive increase in revenue over previous quarters?
    Assuming you are talking about AMZN...

    I am thinking there will be... especially worldwide, where there were lock downs as early as Jan.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #1571

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    AMZN beats on revenue ($75.45B vs. $73.61B est.), but misses on EPS ($5.01 vs. $6.25 est.).

    AAPL beats on revenue ($58.3B vs. $54.54B est.) and beats on EPS ($2.55 vs $2.26 est.).

    We shall see how tomorrow plays out.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #1572

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    AMZN beats on revenue ($75.45B vs. $73.61B est.), but misses on EPS ($5.01 vs. $6.25 est.).

    AAPL beats on revenue ($58.3B vs. $54.54B est.) and beats on EPS ($2.55 vs $2.26 est.).

    We shall see how tomorrow plays out.
    That's more of a bump than I expected, nice call Rod. Let's hope there's a healthy bump across tomorrow.

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