Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Of course, everyone has an opinion...

Headline reads,

The force that’s propelled the stock market rally will exhaust itself this week

Some excerpts:

The force that has propelled the stock market rally is about to exhaust itself this week. That force is related to a short-squeeze.

Exhaustion

According to our algorithms at The Arora Report, the short-squeeze-related force that has propelled this stock market rally will likely end this week. There should be downward pressure on the stock market after the short-squeeze ends, unless there are new triggers to the upside such as medical developments against the coronavirus, pleasant surprises in what companies say about the future in their earnings reports and conference calls, more monetary stimulus from the Fed and more fiscal stimulus from the government.

Should you buy or sell?

Bear markets are characterized by sharp rallies. If a cure is found soon, the rally will continue. In the absence of a cure, the probability is high that the rally will fail.

Source:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...eek-2020-04-13


Of course, I'm keeping an eye on the moving averages. If Mr. Market can at least climb above the 50-DMA, and then remain above it for at least a few days, then I will likely make an IFT. Target areas for 50-DMA... give/take:

S&P: 2,909

Dow: 25,058.00

Naz: 8,453.00

God Bless

Of course, there is the rising wedge/bear flag, both of which should break down.

I'm seeing some signs that earnings are better than expected. Also, I think folks are counting on the coronavirus numbers improving at this point, coupled with the fact that there's more grumbling of the US getting back to work. I'm wondering if bad earnings from here on out will weigh that heavily, as many believe that the only reason business is bad is because of the virus. I suppose it remains to be seen how many small businesses successfully weather the storm, but right now it seems to be an aire of possitivity.

Originally Posted by rangerray

I'm wondering if bad earnings from here on out will weigh that heavily, as many believe that the only reason business is bad is because of the virus.

Heck, Mr. Market shrugged off the record unemployment numbers. It would not surprise me at all for it to also shrug off bad earnings because it knows Daddy Fed will continue to prop it up. Not a free market at all. But, it is what we have to contend with.

Originally Posted by Rod

Heck, Mr. Market shrugged off the record unemployment numbers. It would not surprise me at all for it to also shrug off bad earnings because it knows Daddy Fed will continue to prop it up. Not a free market at all. But, it is what we have to contend with.

"shrugged off the record unemployment numbers"

similar to how the market reacted during most of the clinton yrs. market saw low unemployment as low inflation as low interest rates for borrowing and putting that money into the market.

Is Mr. Market performing a Fake Fade?

It likes to do that.

Maybe reacting to the negative BA news?

Fake Fade? Meaning... temporary fade and then resume rally? Conveniently timed before noon.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Fake Fade? Meaning... temporary fade and then resume rally? Conveniently timed before noon.

Exactly. It also seems to come around 1500-1530 before moving higher into the close. Total manipulation.

Originally Posted by Rod

Exactly. It also seems to come around 1500-1530 before moving higher into the close. Total manipulation.

Are you saying that TSP deadline is affecting market behavior before our TSP Deadline? That does not seem plausible. What percent of market share do TSPers own? Most TSP accounts are buy and hold anyway.

Originally Posted by Happy_Trails

Are you saying that TSP deadline is affecting market behavior before our TSP Deadline? That does not seem plausible. What percent of market share do TSPers own? Most TSP accounts are buy and hold anyway.

Not at all. Just an observation.

Do you know what this market action reminds me of???

Reminds me of the Jan/Feb market action when I was warning y'all about the coronavirus while Mr. Market was making its way to new highs.

It just doesn't feel right. I'm hearing that short squeezes are to blame.

But, if the S&P can manage to climb above its 50-DMA of 2,892.00 for a few days (that 3 to 5 day confirmation rule), then I just might have to make an IFT while maintaining a hair-trigger IFT back to (G).