SNAFU, Is unemployment real?
I think Mr. Market himself is in the Denial stage on the market roller coaster. One would think that no one would buy/hold into this long weekend. Then again, we've witnessed stranger things recently. I still believe the 23 Mar lows will be retested. Just don't know when. As of now, my gut tells me it will be later rather than sooner... although the sooner the better. Perhaps we need to wait for the economy to catch up with the virus' implications upon it. We shall see.
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
SNAFU, Is unemployment real?
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Reading the USBLS reports this morning, which only show Feb reports, unemployment numbers look hunky dory, actually Feb this 2020 had lower unemployment rates than 2019... I suspect we'll see another cliff then the March and April reports finally come out. Safe in G, hopefully with a high selling price for C by the COB.
Place your bets going in to the long weekend...
Today's closing bell will be:
1) Up (S&P by more than .25%)
2) Down (S&P by more than .25%)
3) Flat
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
With two hours of trading left, I'm going to say FLAT.
What say you?
Last edited by Rod; 04-09-2020 at 01:19 PM. Reason: Clarity
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
It's fading fast right now, but the M.O. seems to be a fade just before a late rally back to the highs. Just to give the bears some hope, albeit temporary. I hope I'm wrong, however.
Tom
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I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
I'm going to say up to 1%. We're going to creatively hold on to some of todays gains.
Tin foil hatting it: I predict good news will come between 1500-1530 in an attempt to rally the numbers for Fridays open. Who knows that what news will be: NY announces a flattening to the Covid curve, Biden picks a VP, Congress announces they're working all weekend on the aid package, etc...
Pre-Market trading caused today's spike a few minutes after the US announcement congress was working on another Coronavirus aid program at about 0745.
S&P was climbing steadily, plateaued like a high speed wobble, then started down when Congress (CSPAN) announced an impasse on the aid package and the plan will have to wait until next week.
Oil was rallying until 1230...30 mins later Russia and Saudi Arabia announced agreement to limit production and it's been dropping hard since.
Either way, I'm glad I jumped out today saving the gains I made. This weekend is going to suck, socially, for America and the world. Easter during quarantine is a morale killer. My guess is Monday opens lower but tomorrow will need to get pumped up, and whatever happens before the close will set the stage for tomorrow.
Last edited by mdfiasco; 04-09-2020 at 02:24 PM. Reason: formatting
Looks like stocks were fading but some people came in and are buying. I guess they feel the Fed has their back so they are buying into the weekend.
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