Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Although it is way too early, it is nice to see the futures pop'n green. Currently up +2.00%.

Originally Posted by Rod

Although it is way too early, it is nice to see the futures pop'n green. Currently up +2.00%.

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

Got this email this morning. I don't like the sound of it...

Dear TSP participant,

As the coronavirus situation evolves worldwide, we’re working hard to make sure that TSP operations continue normally, and that we’re able to continue to serve you.

We continue to process forms and requests.
TSP representatives are available to answer your questions.
You can access your account online through My Account.

This is a changing situation, and we will communicate with you as soon as possible if anything affects our operations.

Might our IFT's be limited even further?

Might TSP Ops shut down altogether if they get hit hard?

At this point, it's not far-fetched. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for any such scenario that further limits our abilities to manage our accounts.

Maybe they're worried about having to send their staff home, or a bunch calling in sick?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Maybe they're worried about having to send their staff home, or a bunch calling in sick?

Likely. But, then there won't be as many employees to process IFTs. Unless they have protocols in place to work from home. Then again, this is the gov. we are talking about.

You would think the vast majority effort associated with IFTs is automated. Its probably more likely to affect TSP loans and the like.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

You would think the vast majority effort associated with IFTs is automated. Its probably more likely to affect TSP loans and the like.

I was thinking the same. Maybe things have changed since the mid-late 2000's. Because back then they were complaining about the number of IFT's they had to process... thanks to us forumites at TSPTalk. Then they implemented the 2 IFTs a month rule.

Originally Posted by Rod

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

I don't want to see an explosive rally. Just a nice steady climb out of this pit of despair. An explosive rally usually has a large sell off the next day.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

I don't want to see an explosive rally. Just a nice steady climb out of this pit of despair. An explosive rally usually has a large sell off the next day.

IMHO, we'll get that steady climb after a bottom has been put in and successfully retested... perhaps twice. In the meantime, +1,000 point swings in the DOW seem to be the norm.

My gut tells me that we will rally next week because we just might get a stimulus package over the weekend. Furthermore, the Fed meets next week (or sooner). But, I don't trust my gut enough to IFT into equities. At this point, it is still a 50/50 crap shoot. But, let's see if my gut was right.

Yeah, an explosive rally will be hard to catch.

If we get 1% or 2% growth for a few than we can catch it with a more 'risky' allocation - or, maybe swinging to 100% in C/S/I if that is your cup of tea. If it rebounds 7% for two days than we will lose much of that gain unless we went full speculation. The nice thing about this panic is that it has resulted in a 25% loss - so even three consecutive 7% rebound gains would leave a bit of growth on the table.

Still, three days of a nice 1% or 2% gains would be enough of a signal for those of us not in full speculation mode to get back to a decent allocation - and, we would catch a greater chunk of the growth than we lost. I'm going to go to my Aggressive Allocation if we have a few days of nice returns. So, I will be 75% in during a rebound while I was only 50% in during the downturn.

Originally Posted by Rod

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

Well, that didn't last long, did it?

Given the volatility, it just might return by 1400.