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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1141

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    It may be premature, and I hope this is not a curse...but for those that got in today I think it is safe to say...WELL PLAYED!

    Have a great weekend everyone!

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  3. #1142

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I've become complacent with last years easy peasy market.

    But, that end of day boom usually is smart money.

    Could be a good sign. Could be very good.
    I sure hope you are right. I tend to agree with you. But, now we have the weekend ahead of us which could ruin any relief rally that is on tap. We shall see!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  5. #1143

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    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    It may be premature, and I hope this is not a curse...but for those that got in today I think it is safe to say...WELL PLAYED!

    Have a great weekend everyone!
    Yep! I was one day too early... taking yesterday's hit!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7


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  7. #1144

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    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I posted this on 23 Feb:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    The bottom line...

    Global markets have yet to discount the COVID-19-related economic shock that will likely rock it in the coming months.

    Be careful out there.
    My game plan for next week:

    It is safe to say that the discounting has begun. But, I am afraid that the economic shock has yet to set in. That will likely begin to rear its head after Q1 earnings. If you are in (C), (S), or (I) as I am, I suggest an IFT back to "safety" in (G) or (F) just as soon as it is feasible for you and your risk tolerance. If we get a relief rally or two (or more) next week, the lows of this week will surely be tested in due time. Do you want to be in (C), (S), or (I) when that occurs? I sure don't. Of course, if your account is already deeply in the red, it might be best to ride this thing out so you can keep your number of shares intact and not sell at a loss.

    Although my total "losses" in my TSP have been -5.10% since yesterday, my actual YTD return now stands at -3.91%. (BTW my TD Ameritrade Roth return for today is +3.84%. Happy with that!)

    I am hoping to recoup those losses during any relief rallies that may come next week. Best case scenario is two back-to-back rallies on Monday & Tuesday. I realize that is a tall order. But, if it is in the cards, it will surely garner +5% over those two days. I will then likely seek shelter in (G) or (F), anticipating a test of the lows. More relief rallies may come afterwards before we actually test those lows. But, I will gladly sacrifice those in order to preserve capital.

    March is almost here folks... and Q1 results (likely ugly) are just around the corner. Here's hoping the selling doesn't continue Monday and onward! Be careful out there!

    God Bless
    Last edited by Rod; 02-28-2020 at 09:01 PM. Reason: For Clarification
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  9. #1145

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Interesting...

    Looking at the AutoTracker, a lot of the top folks have exited (F) and entered (C) and/or (S). I hope they're right!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  11. #1146

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I am by no means a T.A. guru. But, looking at all 3 charts... the Dow, S&P, and Naz, there seems to be "Three White Soldiers" on the last 3 bars of those charts. In the world of technical analysis that should confirm an uptrend. Of course, the size of the bars indicates the robustness/bullishness.

    Perhaps someone who is more advanced in T.A. can take a look at it and give me your thoughts?
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  13. #1147

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    My gut is telling we are a long ways from finished with the current downturn. I know because my sticky pants have now turned to stinky pants from wearing them too long in this coronacrisis1 LOL We'll know for sure when the economic effect hits instead of the psychological effect only. We could be looking at weeks and maybe months instead of days before this turns around. As always stay nimble out there my friends!

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  15. #1148

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    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Scout333 View Post
    My gut is telling we are a long ways from finished with the current downturn. I know because my sticky pants have now turned to stinky pants from wearing them too long in this coronacrisis1 LOL We'll know for sure when the economic effect hits instead of the psychological effect only. We could be looking at weeks and maybe months instead of days before this turns around. As always stay nimble out there my friends!
    Oh, I agree with you that we haven't hit the floor (see my previous post yesterday @ 5:10 pm.) I am simply referring to those inevitable "relief rallies." If those are indeed "Three White Soldiers" on those charts, then chances are high for that first relief rally to commence on Monday... barring there aren't any unexpected COVID-19 headlines over the weekend that could spoil it.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  17. #1149

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    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Oh great... there will be another Presidential COVID-19 press conference today @ 1330 EST. Just what the market needs right now...
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  19. #1150

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Here we go...

    Unfortunately, the first COVID-19 death in the USA has been reported.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #1151

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I want to be so wrong about this...

    Because algorithms are programmed to react to such news, the market will likely sink on Monday due to the 1st reported COVID-19 death in the USA. We can only hope that the Fed makes some sort of announcement this weekend that will lessen Monday's blow.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #1152

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    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I posted this 3 days ago...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post

    Ahead of us is Q1 earnings, which will be widely beaten down. Ahead of us is likely a slowdown in the global economy. Ahead of us is likely a global supply chain interruption. Ahead of us are (at least) pockets of outbreaks within the USA, to likely include the first COVID-19 deaths in the USA. We cannot time this thing. That is out the window.

    But, will we have "relief rallys" along the way? Sure will. And one might come today. Are we going lower from here? IMHO, most certainly.

    - Keep an eye on the bond yields
    - Keep an eye on the bond yields
    - Keep an eye on the bond yields


    Remain vigilant, and be careful out there.

    God Bless
    Why can't I heed my own warnings? Of course, I had already IFT'd to (C) and (S) the day before I had posted this.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7


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