Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

I was tempted to hop in today as it looks like we may be getting that rally tomorrow (MAYBE!?!?!) But holding off in case more downward pressure appears this afternoon. Be nice to see that gap filled on the C fund (split it at about 2975). Sitting on one move and may not use it this month.

GOOD LUCK!

I was thinking that as well. Fridays can go either way, especially when there's still uncertainty. But you can bet, the big dogs want their discounts while they last and the way this over reaction (IMO) is going, they've been soaking up everything they can.

Interesting rebound...

But, it won't last.

(SShhh.... be quiet. Mr. Market likes to do the opposite of what I say.)

Originally Posted by Rod

If you've been riding this entire thing down, I suggest that you not capitulate because you may very well get out just when a relief rally/recovery is on the horizon. It usually seems to happen that way.

Three hours left in the U.S. Market.

Maybe a bit too early, but this is starting to 'smell like capitulation'. Could be a 3% down/3% up market move. Wash out the weak kneed and the speculators early - then reset.

I got in too early (COB Monday). This whole mess sounds like 'HYPE' and 'Dumb Money Panic selling'. My guess is that managed funds also wanted a reason to sell and lock in gains from last year. Kinda early window dressing for their quarterly reports. The end result of either/both hype and window dressing is a snap back. Those managed funds will not want to be in bonds when those quarterly reports start coming out.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Three hours left in the U.S. Market.

Maybe a bit too early, but this is starting to 'smell like capitulation'. Could be a 3% down/3% up market move. Wash out the weak kneed and the speculators early - then reset.

I got in too early (COB Monday). This whole mess sounds like 'HYPE' and 'Dumb Money Panic selling'. My guess is that managed funds also wanted a reason to sell and lock in gains from last year. Kinda early window dressing for their quarterly reports. The end result of either/both hype and window dressing is a snap back. Those managed funds will not want to be in bonds when those quarterly reports start coming out.

Boghie,

I generally agree with what you said...but the timing is what makes this so hard. There could easily be a couple more "washes" to get those weak kneed out before we rebound. Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Some humor for you...I have 2 of those weak kneed in my office. Told me I was crazy for getting out when I did and have been crying about the money they are losing since last week. Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today) even though I told them they rode it down so far they might as well play it out and try to catch a bounce. These same folks rode the market down December of 18 and got out the first part of January 19 then didn't get back in till sometime last summer. I would hate to rely on their TSP Balance in retirement and it kind of makes me understand (But still don't like) why TSP limits us all to the 2 moves.

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Boghie,

I generally agree with what you said...but the timing is what makes this so hard. There could easily be a couple more "washes" to get those weak kneed out before we rebound. Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Some humor for you...I have 2 of those weak kneed in my office. Told me I was crazy for getting out when I did and have been crying about the money they are losing since last week. Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today) even though I told them they rode it down so far they might as well play it out and try to catch a bounce. These same folks rode the market down December of 18 and got out the first part of January 19 then didn't get back in till sometime last summer. I would hate to rely on their TSP Balance in retirement and it kind of makes me understand (But still don't like) why TSP limits us all to the 2 moves.

Boing, boing...

That potential 'smile' turned into a solid 'smirk' soon after I clicked 'Post Quick Reply'...

Going to have to ride this one out. I did manage to miss about 40% of the losses - so, there is that. Not going to follow the Muppet Advice from your (or my) office

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Wow, how prophetic was this statement?!?!

I went into (C) and (S) being up 1.25%. Looks like I'll be down around 3% when share prices post. That's minor compared to the overall losses so far. But, it figures I'd be in on the biggest hit of the week. It's quite obvious that I IFT'd at least 1 day early trying to catch a relief rally. Hopefully that won't turn into 2. At any rate, I've been warning for weeks that a pullback was due, and that it could lead to a correction. Will that now turn into a crash? Let's hope not.

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today)...

Capitulation is a sign! Relief rally tomorrow!

I posted this to my facebook on Monday, 24 Feb, to warn my friends who don't actively manage their investments:

If you are exposed to the market, prepare for your 401(k), TSP, etc. balances to take a big hit. This is only the beginning. It will get very ugly because of COVID-19.

We are surely facing a 5% decline, which began last Thursday. We may see a decline of 10% or more in the coming days/weeks.

I posted this today:

That "10% or more" decline arrived today. The markets are oversold. Therefore a "relief rally" is on the menu. But, that's not to say the markets won't decline even further.

Tomorrow will be interesting...

Look on the bright side, if we take into account the YTD totals, we are not in a correction.

Dow: -9.71%

S&P: -7.80%

Naz: -4.53%

There... feel better? I sure do.

Share prices have posted.

I went from being up 1.25% to being down 2.98%.

Not too much damage. Being invested in (F) from 19 Feb to 26 Feb provided me a cushion of 1%. Now, (F) seems to be losing steam. Surprisingly it was down today. Maybe that's a good sign? Here's hoping for a nice relief rally tomorrow.