Likes: 
Reply With QuotePercentages Down So Far (Since 20 Feb):
DOW: -7.89%
S&P: -7.80%
NAZ: -8.93%
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Well, I've met my goal.Originally Posted by Rod
When I IFT'd out of (C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:
47.1444
56.3118
They are now at:
47.3163
56.8087
My goal has always been to buy in lower than where I exited. Will that come tomorrow? Wednesday? At all this week? As I've said before, if/when it does fall below my exit prices, the most difficult decision will then be when to decide to IFT back into (C) and (S). Because I would certainly hate to IFT when a correction is on the table. On the other hand, there are so many uncertainties with COVID-19, especially the Global Supply Chain. Therefore, it might be wise just to sit this entire thing out. But, that would mean remaining out of (C) and (S) for months. I did that in 2008-2009 and completely missed The Great Recession. Decisions, decisions.
God Bless
(C) now stands @ 45.8850
(S) now stands @ 54.9000
They have not been at these levels since 10-11 Dec 2019. Essentially, if I would have IFT'd back into (C) and (S) today, then I would have bought at an approximately 3.39% discount... compared to when I exited. But, I sense that Mr. Market will give up at least that much more before we hit a bottom.
I could be wrong, but I have a feeling there will be a successful relief rally tomorrow, followed by more selling either on Friday or next Monday. Therefore, how much might we rally before the selling once again commences? I have no idea. This is why I said before that it will be extremely difficult deciding when to IFT back into (C) or/and (S).
- Bond yields remain inverted.
- Dow Transports is down 7.40% these past 5 days.
- The Dow is below its 200-DMA.
- The S&P 500 is below its 100-DMA.
- The Naz is below its 50-DMA.
Those aren't very good signs moving forward. Therefore, I shall remain extremely cautious.
God Bless
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Percentages Down So Far (Since 20 Feb):
DOW: -7.89%
S&P: -7.80%
NAZ: -8.93%
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
I realize a lot of you have been beaten up these past couple of days. I've been there in the past... and took the beatings myself. It hurts. But you must admit, as I've been saying for quite some time now, Mr. Market had been acting irrationally in light of COVID-19... making new highs during the commencement of the outbreak. It made no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's unconcerned sentiment during the time certainly became a concern for myself (and others). Now, here we are. I'm afraid to say that (IMHO) this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Ahead of us is Q1 earnings, which will be widely beaten down. Ahead of us is likely a slowdown in the global economy. Ahead of us is likely a global supply chain interruption. Ahead of us are (at least) pockets of outbreaks within the USA, to likely include the first COVID-19 deaths in the USA. We cannot time this thing. That is out the window.
But, will we have "relief rallys" along the way? Sure will. And one might come today. Are we going lower from here? IMHO, most certainly.
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
Remain vigilant, and be careful out there.
God Bless
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Hello - what are you watching for in terms of the bond yields?
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Inversion.
Is the 3-Month more than the 10-Year?
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Contemplating exiting (F) and going back to (G)...
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
The "F" Fund never has been kind to me!
Re: Rod's Account Talk
This was the first time I've play it in over a decade. It returned 0.95% for me since 19 Feb. It might give some of that back today. Therefore, I had better pocket what I can.The "F" Fund never has been kind to me!
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
A wise/good investor always sticks to their game plan unless they have good reason not to. I (nor anyone else) truly knows how Mr. Market is going to react going forward, although we can certainly speculate (see above post). With that said, my game plan has always been to re-enter (C) and/or (S) after they fell beneath my exit levels (see above posts). So, is there good enough reason to deviate from my game plan? Some would say the uncertainties of COVID-19 is good enough reason. Some would say the continued inverted yield curve is good enough reason. Of course, I am concerned about these. But, I don't want to miss a leg up if that leg up is in the cards. Even if it is an interim leg up. Therefore, don't be surprised if I IFT back into (C) and/or (S) today, and strap myself in. As most of us do, I won't make that decision until shortly before the deadline. 5 minutes until opening bell...
God Bless
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Just thinking "outloud"...
I think the (S) fund will be more exposed to COVID-19 than (C).
If I IFT, 100 (C) might be the better choice.
Last edited by Rod; 02-26-2020 at 09:59 AM. Reason: Deleted "tech" reference to (S).
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
S is lagging C at this point...
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Re: Rod's Account Talk
True. Just attempting to speculate on future price action as the global supply chain is inevitably impacted.
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Posting Permissions
|
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
|
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
|||||
Bookmarks