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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1045

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    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Percentages down since last Thursday, 20 Feb:

    DOW: -4.75%

    S&P: -4.78%

    NAZ: -6.16%

    Although a "relief rally" may come tomorrow, continue to be careful out there. The worst COVID-19 "headlines" are by no means behind us. Even if we technically get that 5% pullback in the S&P tomorrow, I will remain hesitant to dive into (C) & (S) because a correction could be in the cards.

    When I IFT'd out of (C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:

    47.1444

    56.3118

    They are now at:

    47.3163

    56.8087

    My goal has always been to buy in lower than where I exited. Will that come tomorrow? Wednesday? At all this week? As I've said before, if/when it does fall below my exit prices, the most difficult decision will then be when to decide to IFT back into (C) and (S). Because I would certainly hate to IFT when a correction is on the table. On the other hand, there are so many uncertainties with COVID-19, especially the Global Supply Chain. Therefore, it might be wise just to sit this entire thing out. But, that would mean remaining out of (C) and (S) for months. I did that in 2008-2009 and completely missed The Great Recession. Decisions, decisions.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  3. #1046

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Thanks for the reminder "(C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:" I don't look at the share prices nearly enough. Many years ago a buddy of mine did that and I looked at the data points/trends. Between the two of us we made a killing "day trading" on TSP. But with daily moves it was pretty easy even with the higher volatility which was much more common back then.

    I agree with you about the headlines...things have been under and falsely (fed to our press by the Chinese press) reported. Now that the spread is occurring in "open" press countries we will hopefully have a better understanding of this virus's potential to cause harm. That said, I pray the Chinese reports have been and are accurate. That would be a great thing...But so far I just can't bring myself to believe them.

    As for the market "Guru's"...I have lost so much respect for them during the past several weeks. I brought up the fact that the portion of China that is effectively quarantined is a huge manufacturing/transportation hub weeks ago. Even idiot me knew the supply chain was going to be effected yet the so called experts didn't see it coming till last night? They just let the market soar to highs while saying nothing is wrong with the US markets?!?!? If this continues someone at the FTC needs to look at the shorts and margins on this one cause tons of 401k holders will get it in a real bad way. Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot for sure!

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  5. #1047

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    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Thanks for the reminder "(C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:" I don't look at the share prices nearly enough. Many years ago a buddy of mine did that and I looked at the data points/trends. Between the two of us we made a killing "day trading" on TSP. But with daily moves it was pretty easy even with the higher volatility which was much more common back then.
    Yeah... a lot of us old timers on the forums used to day trade those prices when we had unlimited IFT's. We at TSPTalk are pretty well the reason why IFT's are now limited to 2x a month. The more popular TSPTalk became back in the day, the more IFTs were being processed on a daily basis. We kept them folks quite busy!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  7. #1048

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Interesting tug-of-war going on between the bulls and the bears...
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  9. #1049

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    New 52-week high in AGG @ 115.48 and rising...
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  11. #1050

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    New 52-week high in AGG @ 115.48 and rising...
    Looks like you are getting your wish. Good move on your part.

    Just threw up all over my sticky pants and I need a depends change, I'll check back later.
    May the force be with us.

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  13. #1051

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    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Looks like you are getting your wish. Good move on your part.

    Just threw up all over my sticky pants and I need a depends change, I'll check back later.
    Well, I certainly can't take it for granted. I will be keeping a keen eye on those bond yields to determine when I need to exit and then likely head to (G). The 10-Year is hitting an all-time low yet again. I just keep wondering if we are headed for a true correction? If the current trend continues, then the S&P will close the day down +6% since last Thursday.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  15. #1052

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Well, I certainly can't take it for granted. I will be keeping a keen eye on those bond yields to determine when I need to exit and then likely head to (G). The 10-Year is hitting an all-time low yet again. I just keep wondering if we are headed for a true correction? If the current trend continues, then the S&P will close the day down +6% since last Thursday.
    Getting clobbered again today. It comes to a point that you have to ride it all the way down in order to ride the wave back up. The problem becomes when you finally get off the dying horse then you are afraid to get back on and miss out on a large portion of the rising market. I hate the idea, but I can stomach a 10% loss in order to ride up 20-30% when it takes off again. But if it continues to get deeper in the hole I will have to bale. My plan is to hopefully move from 50/50 C/S to 100% S soon.
    May the force be with us.

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  17. #1053

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Getting clobbered again today. It comes to a point that you have to ride it all the way down in order to ride the wave back up. The problem becomes when you finally get off the dying horse then you are afraid to get back on and miss out on a large portion of the rising market. I hate the idea, but I can stomach a 10% loss in order to ride up 20-30% when it takes off again. But if it continues to get deeper in the hole I will have to bale. My plan is to hopefully move from 50/50 C/S to 100% S soon.
    I completely understand. I rode every up and down from Nov 2009 to 23 Dec 2019. For 10 years I was a buy-n-holder, averaging 28% annually. Sometimes you just have to turn off the news (as I did) and then revisit every few months.


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  19. #1054

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    BTW, that is one of the reasons I was largely absent on here during that period.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #1055

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    RIP Bull Market... You've been good to me these past 10+ years.

    Too early??? Perhaps. But, I wanted to pay my respects.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #1056

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Cramer tweeted, "Brutal, but barely oversold..."
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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