Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Right now I think the I fund will out perform. I have the I fund being up about .80% right now which is about twice what the EFA is. The dollar is down a little and I'm not real sure how they factor this in but I'd say the I fund is up somewhere around .80% for now.

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Right now I think the I fund will out perform. I have the I fund being up about .80% right now which is about twice what the EFA is. The dollar is down a little and I'm not real sure how they factor this in but I'd say the I fund is up somewhere around .80% for now.

That's what I was banking on. Hopefully you're right.

I believe you made a good move to (C). Depending on how the (I) performs tomorrow, I may join you effective Monday.

Well, moving 60% into (I) turned out to be the right thing. It counteracted the loss in (S) which I thought would have been positive, but things turned sour in the afternoon as you well know.

My feelings are mixed for (I) tomorrow. I'm thinking I should have done a "hit-n-run" on the (I) then high tailed it to (C) while keeping the 40% in (S).

I may or may not dump it tomorrow.

On another note, Do you own any energy stocks???

The energy sector has been really weak, but it may come out of hibernation due to a major winter storm setting up for the east coast by the weekend bringing in much colder air. You know how folks panic... they will be topping off at the pumps and filling their heating oil tanks. Of course, all that equates to higher oil & heating prices which in the end "fuels" the economy anyways. You can have your cake and eat it too if you own energy stocks. Let's not forget those commodities of "milk & bread" which will go flying out of the coolers and off the shelves.

God Bless

I blame the S drop yesterday on Vectorman jinxing it........

I don't "own" any energy stocks, however I do trade them. What I do is I track the ITF XLE, which is an energy SPDR, and when I get a buy signal, I buy SWN and when XLE gives me a sell signal, you guessed it, I sell SWN.

I use SWN because of all the energy companies I've look at, this one has performed about the best. IF you compare the two over a year period, you'll see how nice it's been to me.

It's also good to track the oil index OIH. They tend to run in unison........

Happy returns,

M_M

Almost forgot, it's currently a sell and I'm just waiting on a buy signal.

The S&P 500 low for 2006 so far is 1,254.78 (7 Feb).

Before 7 Feb, the low posted on 20 Jan @ 1,261.49. Jan 20 was that huge sell-off we had.

As of now (10:23am EST), it's @ 1,260.08.

That's a BUY in my book.

What do you all think?

Rod,

I use charts. It blanks out a lot of noise.

Until SPX gets above the 50DMA it is going to labor.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=spx

This pattern and candlesicks says it is going to retest 1250. If it fails to bounce off 1250 then the next support will be the 200DMA. Which will probably be around 1230.

I understand permabear/permabull. I just use the charts.

Good luck to you.

Originally Posted by Wizard

Rod,

I use charts. It blanks out a lot of noise.

Until SPX gets above the 50DMA it is going to labor.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=spx

This pattern and candlesicks says it is going to retest 1250. If it fails to bounce of 1250 then the next support will be the 200DMA. Which will probably be around 1230.

I understand permabear/permabull. I just use the charts.

Good luck to you.

Thanx for your comment and link.

Hey Wiz,

I can't seem to find DWCP (Wilshire 4500) on that chart page.

No problem. Thanks for having an open mind. You can also get a better read by looking at the MACD. When the MACD is going down that is not good. Just kick back and on your hands until the MACD turns up. The "dumb money" got all excited last two days and the MACD was still going down. Bad time to buy.

I use the moving averages but mostly the MACD. When the MACD turns down then I go to the G fund. When the MACD turns up then I go long. Which is why I have been on my hands since the middle of January.

This has worked for me over and over again. Good luck.

I would use this until you get comfortable with the moving averages. Less whipsaws with the MACD approach. Especially in TSP with the deadline.

I'm with ya Rod. Gonna hold for another day.