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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1873

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I'm going to keep my powder dry and attempt to keep politics (and my emotions) out of my financial planning. I could have retired now had I just stuck to a 60/40 (equities/bonds) split from 2010 through 2016. I let my emotions and my politics roll through my decisions.

    On the other hand, the market does seem a bit frothy - disregarding emotions and politics. It feels like a correction is necessary - regardless of who is in office. It doesn't seem as frothy as 2006, but why simply accept a 20% loss like some dumb drone.

    I guess I am going to have to allow for my normal fluctuation model to tell me what to do. If it dumps 7% than I move more conservative, if it gains 7% I might move more aggressive. I am in a 60/40 split so I will see a tempered gain or a tempered loss. I should have time to adjust, I don't need to make the call now.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #1874

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Of all the times I've cried, "wolf", a correction (and even crash) showed up shortly the majority of those times. I am now crying wolf again. Now, you might instead "cry foul." But, I would not want my TSP exposed to Mr. Market between now and 20 Jan, and perhaps even the remainder of January. The risks outweigh the rewards. At any rate, I wish you the best with your investments!

    God Bless
    As inferred, my "spidey senses" are off at times. But, the last time they were spot on was the last time I sounded the alarm. That was on 26 Aug 2020, post #1820:

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-a...-talk-152.html

    A pullback (and correction in the Naz) then commenced within 6 trading days on 3-8 Sep. In 3 trading days, the Dow lost 5.59%. The S&P lost 7.10%. The Naz lost 10.34%.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  5. #1875

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Posted last Friday on 8 Jan:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Since the election, there has been only a handful of days when we've had a selloff. A few days at best, really. I don't like it when Mr. Market ignores "events" going on around it. And that's all I will say as far as "events" are concerned. From my experience, however, this usually signals a major shift in the market that is about to occur. I don't know what the catalyst will be, or when it will occur. But, I believe it is coming sooner rather than later.
    Posted on Monday, 11 Jan:

    Of all the times I've cried, "wolf", a correction (and even crash) showed up shortly the majority of those times. I am now crying wolf again. Now, you might instead "cry foul." But, I would not want my TSP exposed to Mr. Market between now and 20 Jan, and perhaps even the remainder of January. The risks outweigh the rewards. At any rate, I wish you the best with your investments!

    When I made the above posts (especially on 8 Jan) we were essentially in the midst of a 4-week winning streak. Every week since 14-18 Dec through 8 Jan was a winning week for the indices except for the S&P during 21-24 Dec when it finished down @ 0.17%.

    We end this week with the highest weekly loss since 26-30 Oct. Of course, more pain is needed for Mr. Market to fully digest this post-election rally. Therefore, I expect more pain. We shall see how this plays out. Good luck with your investments!

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  7. #1876

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Although Mr. Market had its worst week (11-15 Jan) in 3 months the same week I sounded the alarm on 11 Jan, it took 11 trading days for the selling to truly commence. Digestion of this post-election rally is what the doctor ordered, and will make Mr. Market more healthy in the long term. In the meantime, tread lightly.

    God Bless


    Posted on 13 Jan:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    As inferred, my "spidey senses" are off at times. But, the last time they were spot on was the last time I sounded the alarm. That was on 26 Aug 2020, post #1820:

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-a...-talk-152.html

    A pullback (and correction in the Naz) then commenced within 6 trading days on 3-8 Sep. In 3 trading days, the Dow lost 5.59%. The S&P lost 7.10%. The Naz lost 10.34%.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  8.  
  9. #1877

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Although Mr. Market had its worst week (11-15 Jan) in 3 months the same week I sounded the alarm on 11 Jan, it took 11 trading days for the selling to truly commence. Digestion of this post-election rally is what the doctor ordered, and will make Mr. Market more healthy in the long term. In the meantime, tread lightly.

    God Bless


    Posted on 13 Jan:
    Yeah, the Talking Heads were yammering about the FED talk. Then the FED talked and the market kept declining. I really don't like market declines in the last hour.

    It might be around the time smart money makes it's move. Why not sell now? You have large gains and all you can look forward to is additional regulation and increased taxes. Take your mullah and 'Go Gault'.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #1878

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Hopefully you positioned yourself for the recent tech correction, and are now reaping the rewards. I know I am!

    God Bless


    Posted on 13 Jan:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    As inferred, my "spidey senses" are off at times. But, the last time they were spot on was the last time I sounded the alarm. That was on 26 Aug 2020, post #1820:

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-a...-talk-152.html

    A pullback (and correction in the Naz) then commenced within 6 trading days on 3-8 Sep. In 3 trading days, the Dow lost 5.59%. The S&P lost 7.10%. The Naz lost 10.34%.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  12.  
  13. #1879

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I don't know if you call it a reward where I'm concerned. I rode the correction down and now I'm hoping to ride it up again
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  15. #1880

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Congratulations! You bought the Monday dip and won the Turn Around Tuesday POP!

  16.  
  17. #1881

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    If you're looking for something outside of the TSP, you might want to consider ACAD (Acadia Pharmaceuticals). I made my first initial ACAD investment in 2010 @ 1.76 per share. I closed that position last June @ 52.45 per share. As you can imagine, the profits were spectacular.

    Some bad news hit the stock overnight and it lost 45.35% today. I took advantage of that decline and got back in @ 23.87. Of course, I'm not as heavily invested as I was when I sold last June. But, it's still a sizable position. ACAD closed today @ 25.02, and is up over 5% in after-hours trading.

    The bad news has to do with the FDA and some labeling issues with the label expansion of their product, Nuplazid. You've likely seen the Nuplazid commercials. Be sure to Google it to become familiar with the situation before dumping any $$$ into it.

    But IMHO, the upside potential outweighs the downside risks. I am hopeful that ACAD will see the 30's soon enough, and then the 40's in due time. But, it could be awhile before it sees the 50's again.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7


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  19. #1882

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    My recent swing trades...

    Sold ACAD @ 27.05. (Bought yesterday @ 23.87)

    Sold TSLA @ 705.00. (Bought last Friday @ 590.06)

    These will likely rise higher, but I could not resist pocketing the easy, guaranteed profits.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #1883

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    /// WARNING ///

    The VIX is quite low @ 18.88, and one cent off of its 52-week low of 18.87.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #1884

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I see an algo bot driven melt up for the next two weeks with the fed and options expiration out of the way. VIX < 20 = Risk on.

    If the VIX keeps falling, 20 is the level to watch, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research, Thomas Lee, wrote in a note. That is just a touch away from the current level. “We view a decisive move below 20 as significant,” Lee said.

    Not only would such low expected volatility signify optimism on stocks more broadly, but it would also likely prompt buying from hedge funds that use mathematical models, tracking a range of indicators, to find investment opportunities, Lee suggested. Capital would pour into stocks, more than making up for the downward pressure from anyone selling.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-s...ks-51613161515

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