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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #1837

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I sensed it on the horizon.

    Remember folks... do not panic sell.

    Posted on 26 Aug:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    The "air" up here seems a bit deceptive, and is becoming troubling and turbulent. Perhaps it's time for a nice, healthy pullback or correction (5%-10%)? Will it commence tomorrow with The Fed's speech? We shall see how long it takes to commence! But, it is coming.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  3. #1838

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    It might be the ideal time to play defensive/hedge due to the uncertainty of...

    1. Just how deep the White House C-19 spread penetrates

    2. President Trump's full recovery (although he seems to be doing fine)

    3. The election

    4. C-19 second wave affects upon market psychology and the economy

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  5. #1839

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    It might be the ideal time to play defensive/hedge due to the uncertainty of...

    1. Just how deep the White House C-19 spread penetrates

    2. President Trump's full recovery (although he seems to be doing fine)

    3. The election

    4. C-19 second wave affects upon market psychology and the economy

    God Bless
    I'm listening to you and the little birdy on my shoulder - went to a very conservative allocation.

    Made mine this year anyway. Why be piggish in a notorious month, during a national election, sitting in the middle of a 4th Turning, and strife with conflict.

    My birdy has been a better market analyzer than I this year. Time to listen to her - and you.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  7. #1840

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I'm listening to you and the little birdy on my shoulder - went to a very conservative allocation.

    Made mine this year anyway. Why be piggish in a notorious month, during a national election, sitting in the middle of a 4th Turning, and strife with conflict.

    My birdy has been a better market analyzer than I this year. Time to listen to her - and you.
    Wise move, IMHO. I forgot to mention another reason- stimulus uncertainty, which has been the primary catalyst of the recent market action- whether that be a green day or a red day. Although the possibility exists, there is little reason to believe that the stars will align prior to (and shortly after) the election. I am now in the process of moving my long-term holdings to all cash in my TD accounts... just in case. Like yourself, I'm quite satisfied with my 2020 haul. At this point, the risks outweigh the reward. Again, IMHO. In the meantime, I will make my $$$ by day trading and making sure my accounts are flat by EOD. No after-market/pre-market surprises!
    I

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  9. #1841

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    I am now in the process of moving my long-term holdings to all cash in my TD accounts... just in case. Like yourself, I'm quite satisfied with my 2020 haul. At this point, the risks outweigh the reward. Again, IMHO. In the meantime, I will make my $$$ by day trading and making sure my accounts are flat by EOD. No after-market/pre-market surprises!

    God Bless
    I've been 100% cash in my TD accounts since 14 Oct. As mentioned above, I will simply day trade as opportunities arise. Perhaps QQQ & SQQQ in the meantime.

    My current watch list consists of:

    QQQ
    SQQQ
    DWCPF
    AMZN
    AAPL
    CWH
    CGC
    CVNA
    IVV
    IYY
    VXF
    DOCU
    FDX
    GPI
    GRWG
    HD
    VXX
    TSLA
    LOW
    NIO
    NVDA
    PTON
    CRM
    SPY
    SBUX
    UPS
    ZM

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  11. #1842

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Posted on 5 Oct...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    It might be the ideal time to play defensive/hedge due to the uncertainty of...

    1. Just how deep the White House C-19 spread penetrates

    2. President Trump's full recovery (although he seems to be doing fine)

    3. The election

    4. C-19 second wave affects upon market psychology and the economy

    God Bless
    Posted on 9 Oct...


    I forgot to mention another reason- stimulus uncertainty
    I continue to maintain my defensive position... 100% cash.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  13. #1843

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    Exclamation Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I have not followed The Kendall Report for quite some time. But, this video's headline caught my attention because I've also sensed a "major market shift" since early October. This is why I have been all cash since then... besides for day trades. But at any rate, all of my accounts have been flat by EOD. I do not plan to hold any swings or longs for the foreseeable future. Day trades only. This is the main reason why I rolled over my TSP to my TD Ameritrade account. So I can have 100% control of my $$$, and it feels great!

    Here is that video...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp1c7wDTkuE&t=571s
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  15. #1844

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    so F fund for some gaines?
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  17. Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    I have not followed The Kendall Report for quite some time. But, this video's headline caught my attention because I've also sensed a "major market shift" since early October. This is why I have been all cash since then... besides for day trades. But at any rate, all of my accounts have been flat by EOD. I do not plan to hold any swings or longs for the foreseeable future. Day trades only. This is the main reason why I rolled over my TSP to my TD Ameritrade account. So I can have 100% control of my $$$, and it feels great!

    Here is that video...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp1c7wDTkuE&t=571s
    Another sky is falling video. That vid scared the crap out of me. And what happened? Only down 1.2% in S&P. Wednesday was much worse!


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  19. #1846

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by retread View Post
    Another sky is falling video. That vid scared the crap out of me. And what happened? Only down 1.2% in S&P. Wednesday was much worse!
    He was not calling for something definite to happen today.

    He said, "If certain things occur, it is going to set the tone for something substantial."

    Did those certain things occur? I have no idea. I guess we will have to see in his next video when he said he would "unpack" everything.

    But, at any rate, things were looking ugly intraday. That shot of adrenalin only came in the final 20 minutes or so of trading, as usual... when it does come.

  20.  
  21. #1847

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    I listened to Kendell's video early yesterday and I think he'd said if the S&P opened below 3298 that would signify his potential big fall could happen over the next week or two. A few other pundits are predicting the same thing.

    Rod, different topic...I imagine it's way too early for you to draw any conclusions, but do you still think you'll be able to get consistently better returns in our IRA now that you're free of the TSP's restrictions?
    That's about the only fear holding me back from making the move, that I'd be lured into making poor decisions and actually end up with lower returns.
    So far this year my TSP is at +6.75%, and my Roth IRA is up a whopping 157% since June 30th thanks to making a lot of crazy trades that worked out about 80% of the time. My TSP is about 10 times bigger than the IRA though, and I'm not sure I could move that aircraft carrier as deftly as the frigate, nor would I want to be so free-wheeling with it.
    I've made lists of reasons to leave the TSP, and reasons to stay...here's my lists so far, do you (or anyone else) have any others?

    Reasons to Leave the Thrift Savings Plan:

    1. Limit of two IFTs per month
    2. The 12 noon deadline to enter IFTs
    3. Limited choice of funds
    4. I and F fund daily prices are often manipulated in strange unpredictable ways
    5. When the government shuts down the G fund assets are “borrowed” to keep the government running.
    6. Politics is preventing the improvement of the I fund to include emerging markets like China
    7. TSP is closed on Columbus and Veterans Day so you can’t enter an IFT on those days
    8. They are eliminating the option of using email for 2-step verification to log in. Getting a code sent by text sometimes takes more than 10 minutes, so you can’t even log in.
    9. To increase your monthly withdrawal amount after retirement you have to complete a paper form, have your spouse sign it, get it notarized, and fax or mail it to the TSP, a very slow and cumbersome process.
    10. Changing the amount of federal taxes to be withdrawn from monthly withdrawals is also cumbersome.
    11. The TSP is extremely slow to implement improvements. A simple website redesign took a decade, and they have been “planning” to offer mutual funds since the early 2010s.
    12. Sometimes IFTs are not processed on time.
    13. It’s easy to make a mistake when entering IFTs. One time I forgot to click “submit”, so the IFT didn’t happen and I missed out on a 1.7% gain the next day.


    Reasons to Stay with the TSP:

    1. Having fewer fund options prevents temptations that could result in huge losses.
    2. Limited IFTs prevents over-trading, which reduces returns for most people due to poor timing decisions.
    3. The cumbersome processes to withdraw funds help make the TSP more secure to potential account hacking and theft. Thieves will go for easier prey elsewhere.
    4. (I think) the TSP is off limits to lawsuits, IRAs are not.

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  23. #1848

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    Arrow Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post

    Rod, different topic...I imagine it's way too early for you to draw any conclusions, but do you still think you'll be able to get consistently better returns in our IRA now that you're free of the TSP's restrictions?

    So far this year my TSP is at +6.75%, and my Roth IRA is up a whopping 157% since June 30th thanks to making a lot of crazy trades that worked out about 80% of the time. My TSP is about 10 times bigger than the IRA though, and I'm not sure I could move that aircraft carrier as deftly as the frigate, nor would I want to be so free-wheeling with it.
    Although I garnered stellar returns as a 10-year buy-n-holder with my TSP (average annual return was close to 15% from 2 Nov 2009 to 23 Dec 2019), I do feel that I will be able to get even better returns because there is a vast array of options to choose from without any trading/time restrictions. That is the main thing, though- no restrictions. You can lay your head down at night and not worry about the futures or market open. When you're not in the TSP, you can promptly react to either negative or positive news. There are no stupid noon deadlines or limited two "trades" a month. The TSP has never been the same since the IFT limit restriction.

    And yes, because you are now feasting from a smorgasbord, you must become disciplined. But, I would advise against a TSP rollover until you have complete confidence as a trader (day or swing). If you have a general knowledge, then I highly recommend that you first read this:

    https://smile.amazon.com/Day-Trading...4278359&sr=8-3

    But, it does seem you have already proven that you can confidently execute trades. Furthermore, it seems you have already proven you can get better returns with your Roth than with your TSP. At least during that timeframe of trading.

    When I trade, I rarely have my entire account invested unless it consists of some longs. My ideal portfolio would consist of some longs with some swings and then day trades. But now it is only day trades. And I would never fully invest my account in a day trade(s). They say you should never invest more than 1% of your account in any one day trade. But I usually invest 4-6%. That is because I execute, at most, 3 day trades (round trip) at a time. I try to have all of my trading done within the first hour of trading... as most day traders do... unless I am swing'n it.

    Whatever you choose to do, I wish you the best! And don't forget to get that book... even if you are not a "beginner." It has some good stuff in it.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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