Re: Rod's Account Talk
Originally Posted by mdfiasco
I think you may have left out a VERY big part of your assessment. I.E. the FED. It is true Trumps tweets play a major role in daily market moves but ever since the FED stepped in I have come to the conclusion that the charts are almost worthless and wall street and main street are totally disconnected. IMO unless you are looking at short term charts (and with 2 trades a month that is difficult), old school chart thinking has been over ruled by cheap money.
We all know when Bernanke started QE the market went on the longest bull run in history. What he and Yellen pumped with QE is nothing compared to what Powell is doing now. IMO what the FED does has much more affect on the market since there is such a disconnect between wall and main street, than what the Pres does or tweets (mostly in the long run). It was Powell that started the market going down with tappering and rate increase and it was Powell that started the big run last year with the initial Powell put. It was also Powell that increased the REPO market stuff in in Oct last year which made the market push on to all time highs even when Trump would tweet good or bad things about the China trade.
Now that Powell has pretty much said the printing presses will run with no stopping date, I wonder the out come. It took a few months from late 2008 to early 2009 when QE started for the market to turn around an begin its historic run. What "if" a treatment is found and the Fed keeps pumping? To be honest this all sucks because I'm a few years from retirement and I hate playing games. I was perfectly happy to make 2-3% jumping in and out without gambling it full time but they took that away now since the G fund is nothing more than a mattress.
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Exactly. Which is why that strategy does not work in the current market environment unless we just happen to get lucky. Our TSP trading options are severely handicapped. If they are going to limit our IFTs, at least make the closing bell our IFT cutoff time. But of course, that will never happen.
The TSP simply is not a productive investment vehicle for folks who are not buy-n-holders.
BTW, do you notice that Wall Street Lunchtime Slump?
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Yes I do and often times wonder if our noon cutoff is not partially the reason it happens. I have noticed that most people at this site submit their IFT as close to the cutoff as possible and think that happens throughout. Your thoughts???
"the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Nah... we don't have that much pull in the market. I wish we did, though!
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Thrift Savings Plan
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is a defined contribution plan for United States civil service employees and retirees as well as for members of the uniformed services. As of December 31, 2018, TSP has approximately 5.5 million participants (of which approximately 3.3 million are actively participating through payroll deductions), and more than $558 billion in assets under management;[1] it is the largest defined contribution plan in the world. The TSP is administered by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, an independent agency.
The TSP is one of three components of the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS; the others being the FERS annuity and Social Security) and is designed to closely resemble the dynamics of private sector 401(k) and Roth 401k plans (TSP implemented a Roth option in May 2012). It is also open to employees covered under the older Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) but with far fewer benefits (mainly the lack of matching contributions).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrift_Savings_Plan
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Still... I doubt that we have enough pull to move the market.
BTW, get ready for the FOMC minutes...
Re: Rod's Account Talk
Also, our IFTs can in no way affect noon time market activity because they do not become effective until after midnight.
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
The transactions take place at the close of business prices and I would think those orders to "buy / sell at the close" are seen by people who get that info (level II type of quotes). That's probably why we have the long delay from noon until 4 PM, so these transaction can be tallied and placed by the close.
Not that I like that, but I believe that's how it happens, and my guess is someone is taking advantage of these orders at the close (front running), especially if our premium services send out alerts and we have a mass move into a particular fund. Blackrock knows they are coming and that is some very good info for them.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus ||
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Re: Rod's Account Talk
This is a momentum-driven market right now and the trend is up. Fundamentals will matter eventually, so stay with the trend until that happens. Still, I'm more in preservation mode right now because of the short amount of time I have before retiring. I'm mainly looking for opportunities to take advantage of the trend, with full knowledge that I could be disrupted by a tweet or a news item.
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Re: Rod's Account Talk
Chase Momentum Until Fundamentals Matter:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tec...entals-matter/
Re: Rod's Account Talk
A lot can happen in the final hour. All that we have is "hope and a prayer" that it holds.
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
Re: Rod's Account Talk
And like clockwork, the DWCPF takes a dump at 1500. Beginning to recover...
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
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