Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

I think you're on to something. A point made the other day on FBN, previous economic down turns were due to fundamental economic issues, not imposed from on high; this countries economic engine is on low idle, once we open up again the economy will come roaring back; esp. with greater knowledge on COVID-19 and sensible mitigation. The trend will likely continue to remain up, with random sell offs and rallies interspersed.

If you're watching CNBC, they (Sara) just confirmed what I wrote by saying medical information and reopening news, is a "major market driver." She said the vaccine, the treatment, and the reopening data is in the market's driver's seat.

I rest my case.

You are right Rod. And I'm still kicking myself in the ass for just sitting in G. I guess I should make an IFT today to S and just say the hell with it. I give up on trying to read this market. Being somewhat new to reading things I'm probably missing out anyway or I'm just reading things incorrectly. Just amazing that we are buying back into the markets not far from their highs instead of getting them when they were really down. That's what really pisses me off.

But I guess that's the way life goes. I am happy for those of you who were able to get over into the correct funds at the correct times and make some money. I have a ways to go before I retire but those gains sure would have helped me build up my TSP which is lagging far behind for my age and time in service. Makes me nervous and I'm only 50.

I made a note to myself to watch this video again if the S&P 500 closes above 2954. It could do that today. The video is from Friday, 8 May.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx6PWX8lGBA

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

You are right Rod. And I'm still kicking myself in the ass for just sitting in G. I guess I should make an IFT today to S and just say the hell with it. I give up on trying to read this market. Being somewhat new to reading things I'm probably missing out anyway or I'm just reading things incorrectly. Just amazing that we are buying back into the markets not far from their highs instead of getting them when they were really down. That's what really pisses me off.

Don't let my opinions sway you, but this is my reasoning for sitting in G...for now. I jumped into G on Feb 22 and saved myself from the cliff, then jumped back in w/ Rod week before last sometimes and jumped back out w/ no loss. Now I'm missing this climb. Got FOMO just like you. I'd like to reap this climb but I'm not gonna buy on an up-day, right? The last three months have proven (to me) the market is a racket (didn't we always know that?) Since Mar 23, the market has been driven 100% by Trumps tweets, the off-the-cuff statements by CNBC et al, and obvious pump and dump weeks... NONE of our metrics have made any sense since Mar 23. Show me a metric that has paid off. It is all upside down.

I hope most states reopen before memorial day weekend. I hope COVID cases spike like they should. People w/ disposable income will to go back to work, so they're not home bored spending money online for random things they want. I'm waiting for companies to dump their office leases after realizing 99% of tech workers can telecommute. Rent still isn't getting paid. I'm waiting for credit cards to file collections on those not receiving an income. I'm hoping for another soft cliff in the next 4 wks before jumping back in.

I could be so wrong and this wacky market has shown me I can be. I still feel (feel) we are only at a stoplight on the way down the hill.

You point out reasons I've been sitting in G. I typically am an optimist and can appreciate both sides of the coin so to speak. I really wanted to get in much earlier but just did not. I do have FOMO. Fortunately I'm doing some small investing on individual stocks so I'm trying to make a few bucks on that side of things. But I sure would like to get my retirement account back in action making money. So yeah I agree I want to get back in on down day not an up day. I just feel like this back and forth action continues to move higher and higher and we still sit here in G. Don't get me wrong at least we are not losing money. I moved most of mine over before the big drops in Feb. I moved most around the high in Feb so I'm pretty happy I've kept all of my gains from last year and the first part of the year. I have friends that are still trying to climb their way back up because they did not move anything and said the heck with it, it will come back. Of course they are looking better now with these gains but a few still are not there yet. I shouldn't be so picky and trying to time this thing right but I just want to make the best decisions for my money and my future.

I am not making a rash move as of right now but sure is tempting to get back in because FOMO. I keep trying to watch the key levels but hasn't helped me much....

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

So yeah I agree I want to get back in on down day not an up day.

But that's just it. Nowadays, we simply cannot predict what type of day we are getting in on. So much can happen (and does happen) within the last 4 hours of trading. Especially the last 10-15 minutes. We cannot make a decision based upon where Mr. Market is before our noon deadline. It's futile.

The trend is your friend, 'till its not. Watching for a departure from the trend would be a good indicator. Fed pumping is a good tail wind and may limit downside action. I fully expect a small dip in the next day or two, going to hold through it, unless it drops too far activating a stop (see my thread).

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

The trend is your friend, 'till its not.

Indeed it is. But, once you're locked into an IFT, then you're locked it. Cannot cancel it after noon. Unless you plead some crazy, made-up case to the TSP rep.

Originally Posted by Rod

I made a note to myself to watch this video again if the S&P 500 closes above 2954. It could do that today. The video is from Friday, 8 May.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx6PWX8lGBA

so based on the above does that mean you will jumping out when reaching 2954?

never mind...just hit that spot in the video and my guess is you’re Not.

Originally Posted by Bmoredunks

so based on the above does that mean you will jumping out when reach8ng 2954?

I recommend that you watch the video when you have the time. But, basically he sees it as a breakout to the upside. But, don't know if he still feels that way. That was nearly 2 weeks ago. I posted it as an FYI.

Obviously, getting in on a down day and out on an up day is what we all want to achieve. But how many times have we fallen victim to the noon cutoff trap, whereas things are going great at the cutoff, only to end down by the close. Or buying in on what appears to be a down day, only to have a new high set by the close. Every now and then as I did yesterday with a small entry into the S Fund it plays to our advantage and gives us hope that we are beginning to understand. The sad thing is that whoever wrote the rules for TSP has certainly put its participants at a disadvantage. I guess the best thing we can do is to have a plan, stick to it and hope we have more wins than losses.

Have a great day!